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Poll: Jane Orie Vulnerable in 40th District State Senate Race

Poll:  Jane Orie Vulnerable in 40th District State Senate Race
Ross Twp., Pa. —  With just over one month left before the November 2 election, criminally indicted Senator Jane Orie has dropped below 50% on the current vote, placing her in a tight race with challenger Dan DeMarco for the 40th District State Senate seat.  Recent polling confirms that Jane Orie faces an electorate that is becoming increasingly hostile toward her.  Orie’s criminal charges for illegally using her campaign office and state resources for personal and political gain have begun to take a toll on her popularity. 
Despite overwhelming name recognition, Jane Orie fails to reach 50% on the current vote.  Once voters are reminded of Orie’s criminal indictment, she trails DeMarco by three points (45% DeMarco/ 42% Orie). 
Jane Orie has a net-unfavorable rating among voters.  Orie is now viewed unfavorably by 45% of voters, including 23% who have a very unfavorable view of her.  Only 44% have a favorable view of Orie.  More troubling for Orie is that 71% of undecided voters have an unfavorable view of her, leaving little room for the possibility of vote expansion.
Jane Orie’s negative job rating is nearly equal to her positive job rating.  Voters give Orie a 49% positive/ 42% negative job rating, far below the crucial two-to-one ratio considered safe for incumbents.  Among undecided voters, Orie fares far worse, with only a 32% positive/ 57% negative job rating.
“Over the past few months, I’ve had the privilege of talking with people from across the 40th district, and this poll confirms a constant theme from the campaign trail—my message of ending the culture of corruption in Harrisburg has been resonating with voters,” said Dan DeMarco.  “We cannot be serious about reforming our state government if we continue to re-elect the very people who are part of the problem.”
“My campaign represents the change we need in our state government, “ added DeMarco.  “I will fight to restore honor and integrity to this office, create jobs by reviving Western Pennsylvania’s economic roots, cut government waste, and require our Senators to be accountable to the people of Pennsylvania.”
Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies conducted N=401 interviews with randomly-selected likely 2010 General Election voters in Pennsylvania’s 40th State Senate District.  Interviews were conducted between September 19-22, 2010.  Expected margin of sampling error for these results +/-4.9% with a 95% confidence level.

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    Total Voters: 231

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