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Poll: Philly Mayoral Race Still Too Close To Call

Democratic candidates for Philadelphia Mayor on debate stage

With just days remaining in the chase for the 2023 Democratic nomination for mayor in the City of Philadelphia, the race is remains too close to call.

An Emerson College/PHL 17 poll released on Friday showed Helen GymCherelle Parker and Rebecca Rhynhart all within the statistical margin of error. Gym received the most support among the 600 likely Democratic voters with 21 percent, followed by Parker and Rhynhart with 18 percent apiece.

Allan Domb was fourth among those surveyed at 14%, while Jeff Brown was fifth at 10 percent. There are still 15% of likely voters who are undecided.

Emerson asked that percentage which candidate they might be leaning to and when that was added to total support, Gym increased to 23 percent, followed by Parker (21%), Rhynhart (20%) and Domb (17%).

“This is an exciting race where there is no clear frontrunner,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The top four candidates are within the poll’s margin of error, and could receive the most votes depending on demographic turnout.”

Among voters over 50 – a group most likely to turnout for an off-year primary, Parker holds a three percentage-point advantage over Domb, while among those under 50, Gym holds a 10-point lead over Rhynhart.

Parker, the former City Councilwoman, has a base of support among Black voters (35%) but does not pull more than 10 percent from any other racial grouping. Gym leads among Asian (32%) and Hispanic voters (43%), while Rhynhart and Domb split the white vote (24%).

On the education front, Gym pulls in 41% of the postgraduate responses, while Parker leads among those with a high school degree or less (21%).

Rhynhart has the highest favorability rating among the candidates at 60 percent. Parker is second at 51%, followed by Domb (47%), Gym (44%) and Brown (35%). All but Rhynhart have unfavorable rating in the 30s, topped by Brown’s 39 percent.

The Emerson College Polling Philadelphia survey was conducted May 7-9, 2023. The sample of likely Democratic voters, n=600, has a margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.9 percentage points.  The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and 2023 turnout modeling. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Pennsylvania voter registration data.

One Response

  1. Maybe the rational thing to do is to stop guessing and wait for the votes to be counted?





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