The results of our recent survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 172nd House District show how vulnerable John Perzel has become to a strong challenge, as a result of his indictment and arrest, and Kevin Boyle is already within striking distance even before the campaign has begun
in earnest (Boyle 41%/Perzel 48%).


• Perzel’s Re-Elect Score Is Dangerously Low: Just 36% of voters say they will definitely
vote to re-elect Perzel, while 59% say they will either definitely vote to replace him or at least
consider someone new.

• The Generic Ballot in the District Favors a Democrat: When asked their party preference
for their state representative, absent specific candidate names, 43% of voters choose a
Democrat, while just 36% choose a Republican. This is one of the only districts in the whole
state where the generic Democratic advantage has actually increased since 2008.

• Voter Unease About the State’s Direction Is a Difficult Environment for Incumbents:
Just 31% of voters believe the state is headed in the right direction, while 51% believe things
are on the wrong track.

• Messaging Succeeds in Driving Perzel’s Support Way Down: Despite being known by
twice as many voters as Boyle, Perzel starts the race with the support of just 48% of voters,
compared to 41% for Boyel – a mere 7-point advantage for the long-time incumbent. More
importantly, after voters are read positive and negative information about both candidates,
Boyle holds a 15-point lead, with 50% of the vote to just 35% for Perzel.


This memorandum summarizes the results of a telephone poll of 403 randomly selected likely
voters in Pennsylvania’s 172nd House District. Interviewing was conducted August 22-24, 2010.
Special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual
electorate are properly represented. The estimation error associated with a sample of 405 is
4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of the poll
are within plus or minus 4.9 points

  • Best Cheesesteak in Philly

    • They Ain't Listed Here (33%)
    • Dalessandro’s Steaks and Hoagies (29%)
    • Pat's King of Steaks (9%)
    • John's Roast Pork (9%)
    • Steve's Prince of Steaks (9%)
    • Tony Luke's (6%)
    • Geno's Steaks (4%)

    Total Voters: 232

    Loading ... Loading ...
Continue to Browser


To install tap and choose
Add to Home Screen