Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 2 in PA

The presidential race is shaping up to be another close fight in the keystone state. 

According to a new Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University of self identified registered voters, President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania if the election were held today. 

46.5% polled said they would either definitely or probably vote for Trump in a matchup with Biden, while 44.5% polled said they would either definitely or probably support the Scranton native’s bid for the White House. 9% polled said they were unsure who to select between the two.

While Biden has emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic Party nomination, the poll also included a hypothetical head to head matchup for Trump with Sen. Bernie Sanders. Trump boasts a larger lead over the Vermont Senator with 47.6% saying they would either definitely or probably vote for reelecting the president, while 42.1% said they would either definitely or probably vote for Sanders. 10.3% polled said they were unsure who to select between the two. 

Trump’s lead over Biden is within the margin of error, while his advantage over Sanders is outside the MOE. 

Although Trump holds a lead over the two remaining Democratic presidential hopefuls, he does slightly trail in a matchup when voters were asked to select between Trump and “the Democratic Party’s candidate.” 44.5% said they would definitely or probably vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate for president if they election were held today, while 44.1% said they would vote for Trump. 

 

(Un)Favorable Ratings 

All three remaining candidates seeking the Oval Office in November have favorability ratings under water among self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania. 

Trump holds the strongest numbers of the trio with 46.2% saying they have a favorable view of him, while 47.9% saying they have an unfavorable view of him. 5.8% said that they are unsure. 

40.7% polled have a favorable view of Biden, while 44.8% have an unfavorable view of the former Vice President and 14.5% said that they are unsure. 

Sanders holds the weakest numbers of the bunch in this category with just 36.7% of Pennsylvanians having a favorable view of him, while 48% have an unfavorable view of the Vermont Senator and 15.3% saying that they are unsure. 

 

Mixed Grades for Trump on Top Issues

The two most important issues are clear for Pennsylvanians for the upcoming election, but the grades Trump receives provide good and bad news for the president. 

Healthcare registered as the top issue for Pennsylvanians when “thinking about your vote for president” with 32.7% selecting this topic. Trump struggles over this issue with voters in the commonwealth with just 41.2% saying they either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling on healthcare policy, while 51% say they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump’s handling on the matter. 7.8% said that they were unsure. 

On the economy, which was selected by 30.3% as their top issue when “thinking about your vote for president,” Trump holds stronger numbers. 51.5% said they either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling on the economy, while 44.8% said they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling on the matter and only 3.8% said that they were unsure. 

The only other issue of the seven options in the poll that surpassed double digits, 15%, was “security issues,” which included terrorism, foreign policy, and border security. This poll didn’t include voters’ feelings of how Trump has handled the matter.

 

Trump’s Job Approval Rating 

Pennsylvania voters are also split on how they view Trump’s job performance as president. 48.7% said they either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 48.3% said they either strongly or somewhat disapprove. 2.9% said they were unsure. 

This overall poll, surveying 973 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between March 17 to March 25, has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percent.

The full data can be found here.

March 31st, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 10 Comments

10 thoughts on “Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 2 in PA”

  1. Chuck says:

    What do you expect – the same Executive Director of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party that did nothing for Hillary’s campaign. Hired people from out of state that had no idea what Pennsylvania was like. Doing the same now. Carte Blanche with the Party’s credit card and the Chair has no idea what is going on. The rules remain the same – Biden will lose Pennsylvania because there is incompetence at the top and the members has no say at all.

  2. FormerGOPer says:

    Politics PA only ever highlights polls where the GOP does well.

  3. Rex says:

    This poll has the electorate in terms of party reg as R+3, when registration is D+10. So in a sample 13 points more republican than the state (with no Latino representation to boot), Biden is down to. stands to reason hes actually up 11.

  4. David Diano says:

    “Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll”
    Not exactly a household name poll.

    “surveying 973 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania”
    Why not check the f*cking voter rolls to see if they are registered?

    “March 17 to March 25”
    That was 3,000 US corona virus deaths ago.

  5. Pollster Joe says:

    Seems to be an outlier poll. Puzzled how the Congressional race in Montana and the Senate race in Montana could be tight in a red state and yet in a centrist state like Pa the R’s are doing better than expected. Curious poll.

  6. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    GOP propaganda/fake poll. PA cannot be this dumb. Trump is unfit for dogcatcher. Only morons would vote for him. Oh hell, maybe PA is that dumb.

    1. Other Chris says:

      We were that dumb once before. Take nothing for granted.

  7. Bruce Alan Slater says:

    Appears to be a push poll to me to make Biden more favorable than Sanders. Trying to create a narrative for the rest of the primary when there are still 1775 delegates still up for grabs in the primary. My question is who paid for this poll?

    1. PhillyPolitico says:

      Do you know what a push poll is?

  8. Montco Resident says:

    538 rates this pollster as a C/D so forgive me if I take it with a grain of salt.

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