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PPP: PA-8 and PA-15 Voters Do Not Approve of GOP Tax Plan

In a Public Policy Polling poll from earlier this month voters in PA-8 do not approve of the Republican tax plan, and in a separate poll from early October found similar results in PA-15. 

In the poll in PA-8, PPP asked 605 voters from December 11th-12th “based on what you’ve heard, seen, or read, do you support or oppose the tax plan proposed in Congress?”  A majority, 56%, said they opposed the tax plan, while 31% said they supported it.  A majority of respondents said they also opposed ending the federal deduction for state and local taxes (69%), eliminating the estate tax (62%), and increasing the national debt (66%).  

PPP also polled the approval of incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks), finding he 36% approval rate and 42% disapproval rate.  

In PA-15, PPP polled 977 voters on the tax plan October 5th-8th, asking if people supported or opposed it or had heard about it.  46% opposed it, while 33% approved.  

Incumbent Congressman Charlie Dent (R-Lehigh) is retiring at the end of his term, leaving an open seat that both parties will likely push to win in 2018.  PPP’s poll found an almost even split between voters who would vote for a generic Democrat or a generic Republican in 2018, with 44% saying Democrat and 43% saying Republican.  

PPP is usually seen as a left leaning polling organization, usually working for Democratic candidates.  Both polls were conducted on behalf of Patriot Majority.  Patriot Majority describes themselves as a “non-partisan” organization, but shows that they spent almost $600,000 supporting Democratic candidates, and zero dollars supporting Republicans.  

Both PA-8 and PA-15 will be major targets for Democrats as they look to pick up seats in the House in the midterms elections, and Republicans will be pushing to keep the seats as they look to hold the majority.

48 Responses

  1. The real question is, what does Stack think about all of this? Back Stack people, just back him!

  2. Fitzpatrick will easily win in 8. 15 looks to be in play for both parties. I don’t agree that anyone has any edge except that MacKenzie had a big head start knowing Charles W. Dent was not running again months in advance, which saddens many who thought Charlie was way more transparent than he and the media currently portrays him. Time will tell.

    1. Wrong on both counts; I watched Charlie self-degrade over the past decade, and I watched Brother Brian self-degrade over the past year.

      1. Dr. Robert is a self-proclaimed political expert. He thinks he knows more than everyone when in reality he knows less than anyone.

  3. Merry Christmas to all you haters out there! Whoever said below that Fitzpatrick (PA8) and Mackenzie (PA15) will will because they reflect their districts was 100% correct. Fitzpatrick is a moderate and he embraces that. Mackenzie is a conservative Trump supporter who stands up for that. Good for them. They will both win, even in a blue year because that is where there districts are, whether you like it or not! Merry Christmas!

    1. disagree, for Brother Brian has continued to support the Deep State [Comey, et al.] while opposing The Donald whenever possible

      1. Robert – I don’t know if we agree on things all the time, but I value your opinion. So, does that make him out of step with PA8? I thought the moderate Rs and the weak Ds like Comey because he was in the tank for Hilary all along. That position would seem to be in line with where you say Fitzpatrick is…?

        1. Brother Brian is out-of-step with REALITY, for it can be reasonably projected that the Deeeeeep State FBI-types he is resolutely defending are going to be outed [e.g., for the special-handling Hillary received when she was interviewed without being under oath and without anyone keeping a transcript].

          This exemplifies all that’s wrong with him, in terms of policy; the GOP should/could/would not be wise to re-nominate this no-labels “independent” unprincipled heel who cannot defend [let alone advocate for] issues that animate the base.

          He should graciously return to the FBI, relocate to his call-eee-for-nya home-base, and allow his tenure to become an unpleasant memory…this cycle…ASAP.

          1. The doctor is clueless as usual. He is against anyone who doesn’t take his viewpoint. He is trying to get Dean Malik to embrace his ideology and believe it or not, Dean is listening. Foolish!!

          2. Last time I checked Hillary still LOST. Why was POTUS silent last week about the FBI foiling a terrorist plot in SF? Except of course to tweet that the agency is “tainted”. Is the Secret Service also suspect by DJT?

  4. Anyone here truly believe that Ryan MacKenzie and his consultant are not trolling all stories related to PA15? Truth to be told, he’s completely running out of gas at this early stage after Charlie’s ez early money hit, having started way ahead of his competition. People are not fooled. He was ranked behind Marty, Pries and Uehlinger after the Northampton Co gathering last week. #Truthhurts

    1. Little Ryan as he’s being called as a joke to Trump’s previous Little Marco Rubio; Little Ryan has access to Dent money. Inside job from knowing Dent was leaving well in advance. Will the moolah buy support of the committees thru and thru? That is the question. They already get Lebanon GOP as Mike Long is Little Ryan’s general consulter and his son is the Chair boss of Lebanon committee. These inside jobs will some day come home to roost.

    2. Please do tell what you are talking about at our Northampton GOP. I am on the committee and no such poll was taken. Talk about Fake News!!! I support Ryan and have known him for many years. His family has deep roots in Northampton County and he has done a fantastic job as state rep!

      1. I never mentioned any poll. You are spreading fake news. I said ranked behind. I’m also on committee and that’s my ranking. Tell me your name if you are really in the committee and I will tell you mine. The suspense thickens.

        1. Well, I think your “ranking” has been exposed as junk that you tried to push out there as some kind of fact. And, I think we all know who you are, Tom. Your hatred and anger toward one candidate is so obvious and has already blinded you to support a loser like Simmons. No one is listening to you now and they never did anyway.

          1. You did not put your name here which would’ve required me to follow suit. That is very telling. Why do you call out Tom? I am not alone in ranking Ryan behind the others. I was physically there and heard from the candidates for 17th & 15th Sears.!! And to bring Justin back into this is telling of your inability to handle things still. I do not believe Ryan has done even a good job as State Rep. He’s a sheep. Baaaaaa #Truthhurts

  5. Mackenzie is the only candidate that can win PA15 for the Rs. He is a conservative that has run and won tough elections before. Enough said.

  6. Mackenzie and Dent differ on support of Trump, but both of them are well within bounds for the electorate in PA-15. Can’t see any of the other R challengers mounting a credible challenge to Mackenzie. Ultimately, the outcome for this race will depend on who the Democrats run and if it is a “Blue Wave” year.

  7. It didn’t eliminate SALT. People don’t approve of eliminating the death tax? WTF is with your polling questions?

  8. 62% were opposed to eliminating the estate tax? Clearly, progressive pollster PPP wasn’t asking republicans. Fake poll. Sad.

  9. Rough waters ahead for GOP. In the 8th Fitzpatrick has become his own worst enemy and is now ripe for the picking. That’s a harbinger of things to come in 2018. The 15th is a total crap shoot at this point. Dent seemingly was working for State House swamp rat Mackenzie who got early Dent money. But Mackenzie was so immature in his handling of early fight with Simmons and then completely underwhelmed when being vetted. Marty Nothstein, Priess and Uehlinger are all licking their chops.

    1. LOL! Who will the Democrats run against Fitzpatrick? Their only candidate was proved to be a closet Republican, and then she lied about it! No integrity

    2. People always anonymously hate on the front runners. Fitzpatrick and Mackenzie will easily win PA8 and PA15, respectively, because they fit their districts. Fitz is a moderate in a +1 R district and Mac is a conservative in a +4 R district. Also, don’t make me laugh about Simmons. Mackenzie handled it perfectly and knocked him out in no time flat. It was a TKO and textbook campaigning on Mackenzie’s part. The same thing will happen to Pries, Nothstein, and Uehlinger who are all gaining no traction at all.

      1. Ryan will not win. No comments on here change what people are actually seeing. I will not vote republican if he is our horse in the race.

      2. Brother Brian will lose, for he’s going to have been successfully primaried by Dean H. Malik, Esq.; The Donald is on a roll [as will increasingly be noted, begrudgingly] by Never-Trumpers, and his having opposed the party leader regularly [starting from when he didn’t vote for him for POTUS a year ago] will be his undoing.

          1. he’s rebuilding and enlarging the party attracting, in particular, the ethnic-Dems who have classically been swing-voters; in fact, don’t be surprised if he continues to skim-off minorities who begin to appreciate what he means by MAGA

          2. No he’s not. He may have had a chance to, but he has blown it with his constant stupid remarks which draw away from his successes. Mid terms are going to be a blood bath on repubs.

          3. he is methodically winning, notwithstanding your concern with his tweets; never-trumpers are either departing [e.g., Flake/Corker/Dent] or self-marginalizing [e.g., National Review worshipers]

          4. Winning what? Bob, with respect, your wrong. Completely wrong. Municipal elections last month showed the results of him “winning”. Republicans lost control of any messaging. Midterms will be a bloodbath. Remember this conversation.

          5. First, it would be easier to “remember” a conversation if one of the participants thereof weren’t anonymous.

            Second, the losses of the GOP stem from the absence of a MAGA-themed message, which Dean delivers effortlessly [and Brother Brian cannot initiate, even were he to deign to try].

          6. If Donald Trump is “on a roll of destroying any Republican footholds”, boy are Democrats/Progressives in for a big surprise next November! By then the tax cuts will have been in force, people will have more money in their pockets and Obamacare will be all but dead! Some “downfall” that will be!….NOT!

        1. Malik winning is a joke. He has fundraisers where maybe twenty people show up and half don’t pay. A ground game with a handful of people does not get you elected. I say he drops out by February. btw- is he still defending heroin dealers?

          1. an organization is being built methodically; his law practice focuses on two clients [the Constitution and the individual who is either plaintiff/defendant]…just as did Lincoln and JQAdams

          2. Dean is unelectable in that district. Saying he somehow beat fitz in a primary, he would never win the general. Brian being a barely Republican Republican will have trouble bonding that seat. Dean should ficus on changing the county registration to plus R before tanking the Republican in there for a dem to take over.

          3. time is tight and, therefore, this is the year for Bannon-themed national initiatives to drain the GOP swamp

  10. Dems luv push-polls; let’s see how well the people accept having more personal $ within a half-year.

    1. Note also imbalanced disapproval of Brother Brian, illustrating combo of disaffection among those in the GOP base and the lack of support from virtually any D’s.

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