Today it appears Senator Pat Toomey should be thankful that election day is still three years away. A new survey from Public Policy Polling brings tough news for the state’s junior Senator on this holiday weekend.
According to PPP, Sen. Toomey has a 36% approval among PA voters while 46% disapprove. Comparatively, Toomey’s colleague Bob Casey has a 44% approval rating with 42% disapproving of his performance.
There doesn’t appear to be much of a gender gap concerning Toomey’s performance. Among women, the Senator has 35%/44% approve/disapprove split while for men it is 38%/48%.
Most intriguing, however, is the hypothetical matchups that PPP set up for the 2016 Senate race. In a contest between Toomey and Attorney General Kathleen Kane, Kane holds a 46% to 42% lead with 12% not sure. Interestingly, Kane’s lead among men (48% to 42%) is larger than her lead among women (45% to 42%).
In a rematch between Toomey and his 2010 opponent former Rep. Joe Sestak (who has already strongly hinted at his intention to run) the two candidates are tied 42% to 42% with 16% not sure. Toomey leads Sestak by one point, 44% to 43%, among men and Sestak is one point ahead with women, 41% to 40%.
PPP is a Democratic pollster, although their polls were found to be among the most accurate in the 2012 cycle.
The pollster surveyed 693 likely PA voters from Nov. 22 to 25 via IVR. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%.
Note: Wednesday’s PPP survey announcement includes 3 polls: 1 of registered voters, one of Democrats, and one of Republicans. This article cites figures from the survey of all voters.
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Assuming Hillary runs in 2016, the Dem primary field for future ex-Senator Toomey’s seat could get crowded, since hers will be some extraordinarily large coattails and lots of folks will want to get on for the ride. But given AG Kane’s positive history with the Clintons, and Sestak’s soured relations with them dating back to the Specter thing, this is bad news for Joe. Real bad.
Kathleen3 – if you’d actually read the article, you’d know that PoliticsPA already disclosed that PPP is a Democratic-leaning firm but that its polling was some of the most accurate of the 2012 cycle, which is the only thing that really matters in a polling firm – how accurately can they identify and predict trends? Incidentally, Susquehanna Polling and Research – a Republican-leaning firm – has consistently been among the least accurate polling firms.
AG Kane has accomplished quite a bit – from starting an investigation into the handling of the Penn State sexual abuse scandal to bringing criminal charges against Turnpike officials, helping preserve the Lottery, and working against discrimination; however, I can see how someone on the political fringe with no understanding of the law might disagree.
A PPP poll is the equivalent of a Progressive/Democrat Poll. What, exactly, has Kane accomplished while in office other than to demonstrate her disdain for the law, her ties to the unions, and her insatiable desire for media coverage?
Sestak has done more than “strongly hint” he’s running. He’s hired staff, called donors, and held fundraisers. The only people he’s lied to about his intentions are the folks at the FEC and the people who were dumb enough to give him the Omar Bradley chairmanship (which he is abusing to produce future campaign speeches and material).
Sestak’s lead (within margin of error) among women is probably due to them being unaware of how one of his young congressional staffers quit after she was told to shut up and that she was “hired for her looks not her opinions and her job was to look good for Joe” for the image he wanted his staff to project.
But, I doubt Kathleen is running for Senate (though I’d certainly support her).
I think the more likely opponents for Sestak are whoever comes in second in the Dem Gov Primary or Ed Rendell.
While Rendell left with some falling approval ratings, Corbett has been such a terrible governor that Rendell looks better than ever. Rendell’s campaign account still had $2 million in it a few years ago, and he could easily out-raise Sestak. The Western PA Dems I talk to complain bitterly how Sestak screwed them in 2010.