PPP Poll: Obama 52, Romney 46; Casey 52, Smith 44

The top of the ticket is looking safe for Democrats according to the latest survey from Public Policy Polling. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 6 points, while Sen. Bob Casey leads Tom Smith by 8.

In both cases, the races are narrower than PPP’s October 12 surveys. Then, Obama lead by 7 points, 51 percent to 44; Casey lead by 11 points, 50 percent to 39.

Obama’s lead is largely a result of his advantage among women (he leads 57 percent to 42) and independents (he leads 49 percent to 45). Romney leads among men 52 percent to 46.

Casey has an even wider advantage among women (57 percent to 40) and independents (49 percent to 41). Smith leads men just 49 percent to 47.

PPP surveyed 790 likely Pa. voters from November 2 to 3 via automated telephone interviews. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percent. 48 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 38 percent as Republicans and 14 percent as independents or other.

Obama’s approval is split, 48 percent positive and negative. Romney’s favorability is slightly negative, 48 percent to 46.

Casey’s job approval is slightly positive, 42 percent to 41. Smith is viewed slightly unfavorably, 40 percent to 38.

PPP is a Democratic polling firm; the results of these surveys show the Democrats higher than the average of all recent numbers. According to Real Clear Politics – which includes these PPP numbers – Obama leads Romney by an average of 4.8 points in Pa., 49.8 percent to to 45. Casey leads Smith by 5.2 points, 48.2 percent to 43.

Corbett’s Numbers

The survey shows Tom Corbett’s approval upside down: 44 percent disapprove his job as Governor compared to 33 percent who approve.

Asked who they would vote for today, Tom Corbett or a Democratic opponent, 47 percent chose the Democrat compared to 37 percent for Corbett.

13 Responses

  1. I agree with David Diano. Some independent voter in Mississippi is probably racist, therefore this poll is accurate and Obama wins handily. Disagree and you’re a bigot.

  2. Romney likes the Jews so much, that he hasn’t uttered a peep of disapproval when church converts dead Jews to Mormonism.

  3. John (and others)-

    The “Independents” of PA are not the same as independents nationwide, which would include some VERY Red states, with a more conservative baseline. Even a political “independent” in Mississippi is more likely to be a racist against Obama, even if they agree with him and might be persuadable for a Democrat like Clinton or Biden.

    The independents in PA are probably more socially liberal than independents in other parts of the country, and their conservatism is probably more govt/taxes. So, they are more likely to tilt toward Obama over gay rights, women’s rights, contraception, etc.

    However, I think a big factor will wind up being hurricane Sandy: FEMA, role of govt in helping people, Obama’s steady leadership and praise by Christie. The question of whom people want in the W.H. during a crisis favors Obama.

  4. What you’ve just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this chat room is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

  5. If Tuesday is the Only Poll that matters, why are republicans Lining up Lawyers,(thousands) to file papers to contest elections,form the municiple level to the presidency? The republicant party Hates america, and If you vote republican : YOU HATE VETERANS< NEW BORN BABIES AND GRAND MOTHER!

  6. yet the trib has the race at 47-47 for the presidency and 46-45 for the senate – if romney wins this race on tuesday, there will be alot of polling firms (ie PPP) with alot of explaining to do….

  7. Automated poll with 10 percent higher D vote seems about as inaccurate as it can get.

    Makes no sense this state is nearly split could go either way.

  8. A D+10 poll! They(The Daily Kos/PPP) really had to use brute force to get the numbers they wanted. In 2008, it was a D+7, in 2010 it was D+3. So pathetic.

  9. D+10 poll!

    How ridiculous

    Self deception leads to self delusion…..Tuesday is the only poll that matters now.

  10. It seems strange that PPP has Obama dominating Romney with independents. How is that possible, when nearly every other national poll has Romney getting the majority of independents? I just don’t understand how Obama can be up 4 points in PA with independents, yet be up 17 points in Wisconsin with independents, while being behind nationally. These polls just don’t make any sense at all. How can PPP explain the massive difference in independents between PA and Wisconsin? Something is going on here…

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