PPP Poll: Without Biden, PA Swings Red in 2016

081025_gop_logoPennsylvania may be ready to throw its 20 electoral votes behind a GOP candidate for the first time since George H. W. Bush in 1988 if Vice President Joe Biden stays out of the race for the Democratic nomination for president.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have ground to make up in the Keystone State, with both losing to GOP frontrunners Donald Trump and political newcomer Ben Carson, according to a recent PPP poll. Carson tops Clinton 47-43, beating Trump’s performance against the former Secretary of State by two points.

Clinton also loses to NJ Gov. Chris Christie (45-41), FL Sen. Marco Rubio (45-42) and Carly Fiorina (43-42). Sanders doesn’t fare much better for the Democrats, also losing head-to-head matchups against Carson, Trump, Rubio and Fiorina.

The Vice President and Scranton native is the Democratic Party’s best choice in PA, performing an average of 6 points better in the matchups and beating every GOP candidate in the field.

Clinton does well against Republicans in the second-tier of most polls, beating out former FL Gov. Jeb Bush (45-40), TX Sen. Ted Cruz (46-40), OH Gov. John Kasich (41-39) and former PA Sen. Rick Santorum (47-39).

Only two candidates – Biden and Carson – enjoy positive favorability ratings in the state, while Trump, Clinton, Bush, Christie, Clinton, Cruz, Santorum and former AR Gov. Mike Huckabee have unfavorable ratings above 50%.

The poll also shows Trump’s lead is starting to evaporate in PA, while Clinton’s stranglehold on the “Democratic frontrunner” tag is loosening with Sanders’ burgeoning support base and talk of a Biden run.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,012 registered voters from October 8th to 11th. The margin of error is +/-3.1%.

21 Responses

  1. The notion that “if we support Carson, that proves we aren’t racist” is emblematic of the national political problem facing the GOP. Moderate voters are turned off by candidates to the far right, yet primaries are won by appealing to the more extreme end of the party. So here we have a candidate that speaks the language right wing voters are looking for, but does not look the part in hope perhaps that it would make moderates feel better about supporting him.

    The trouble is that Carson still polls under 20% in the black community, he opposes the very programs that helped his family survive when we was growing up, and he frequently produces toxic soundbites (i.e. charge the shooter). While voters may not figure these issues out on their own, especially this early, the attack ads are easily written. And more importantly the issues are easier concepts for the public to wrap their head around than, for instance, the ethical dilemmas of Romney’s hedge fund practices.

  2. And diano – I support carson for the gop nod. So how am I racist if I oppose obama. Check mate buddy.

  3. Unless Biden gets the dem nomination pa is red in 2016. The numbers just don’t work for the other dems regardless as to who the gop nominee is.

  4. Keep in mind that a poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. We have more than a year to go until the election.

  5. I simply don’t believe that that’s how Pennsylvania would vote. Something is wrong here. Either their methodology is skewed or Democrats aren’t paying attention at this point. I know that Clinton has favorability problems but I didn’t think it was THAT bad. Why is Biden any better? Biden is positioning himself to be centrist Democratic fallback candidate if Clinton gets ensnared in this email thing.

  6. I simply don’t believe that that’s how Pennsylvania would vote. Something is wrong here. Either their methodology is skewed or Democrats aren’t paying attention at this point. I know that Clinton has favorability problems but I didn’t think it was THAT bad. Why is Biden any better? Biden is positioning himself to be centrist Democratic fallback candidate if Clinton gets ensnared in this email thing.

  7. jmarshak-

    Quit trying to pretend that many of the attacks on Obama (especially the birther movement) aren’t racist at their core. We’ve got Alabama putting in another one of those VoterID laws, then shutting down 10 DMV’s (all in 75% black counties). When was the last time a predominately white church was burned down by arsonists?

  8. Let’s not forget Karl Rove’s face on national TV when Obama was projected as the winner, in direct contradiction to Rove’s very expensive and up-to-the-second polling. In other words, whether it’s a tiny sample of people contacted by landlines over a year before an election, or it’s a master pollster with every imaginable resource on the day of the elections, polling these days is about as accurate as consulting a psychic. BTW, the poll is full of bad news for Pat Toomey, one of the #47Traitors, if he chooses to believe the polls.

  9. Mr. Diano said the GOP racists, as in the subsection of GOP voters who are racist, which are many. The RNC only officially apologized for Southern Strategy ten years ago; its effects will be felt for another generation at least, especially as the dog whistling continues. There were outspoken segregationists elected to the Arkansas House of Representatives on the Republican ticket within the last five years, for crying out loud.

  10. Of course DD, if you don’t like Obama you must be a racist. I hope Carson wins just so we’ll get to spend 4 years calling Democrats racists every time they oppose him.

  11. This is a stupid article. Citing Carson as the GOP leader in this poll should demonstrate how accurate it isn’t. What a joke.

  12. PA is a safe Blue state in 2016. Dem Gov and DNC in the state. VoterID suppression law stopped and statewide race can’t be gerrymandered. PA has gone blue every year since Bill Clinton was elected, and it’s not going red with another Clinton at the top of the ticket.

    All the GOP racists who have been attacking Obama are not going to vote for Carson. His campaign will collapse before the PA primary.

  13. Republicans would have to by a high enough margin to overcome PA voter fraud in Pittsburgh and Philly, though. Easier said than done.

  14. The O v. R numbers aren’t that off. PPP shows 47-43 (+4). The official results for 2012 were 51.97-46.59 (+5.38). (And that’s not to say that there aren’t Democrats with selective amnesia about their 2012 vote.)

    If you add an additional 1.38% to Clinton, only Fiorina would be losing (and narrowly at that). And the name recognition numbers strongly favor Clinton now more than they ever will in November 2016.

  15. Look at the percentages of people who said they voted for Obama verse Romney that were polled. Romney is way over represented considering he lost the state by about five points. The poll is definitely over representing Republicans. These kinds of issues are going to be more common as more and more people drop landlines (Especially democratic voters).

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