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Quinnipiac: Biden Surpasses Trump; Casey Holds 10-Point Edge on McCormick

Joe Biden, Josh Shapiro, Bob Casey

For the first time, President Joe Biden has a numerical advantage over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

Biden received 49 percent support of the 1,680 registered voters in the Keystone State, while Trump pulled in 46 percent with a margin of error at +/- 2.4 percent. Trump led Biden, 47-45, in October and 47-46 in June.

“A good bump for Biden at a time when there is not a lot of good things happening,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

While party support was expected with 96 percent of Democrats backing Biden and 89 percent of Republicans supporting Trump, independents were divided 45-44 in favor of the 45th president.

Quinnipiac also posed a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 41 percent support, Trump receives 39 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 11 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support.

Pennsylvania Senate

In the closely-watched U.S. Senate race, Democrat Bob Casey holds a healthy 10-point lead over Republican Dave McCormick, 53-43, increasing what was a six-point advantage (50-44) in October. Independents broke for Casey, giving the three-term incumbent 55 percent support compared to 39 percent for the former Bridgewater Associates CEO.

“A big infusion of Indie support makes one of the most closely watched Senate races in 2024 a not-so-tight race,” said Malloy.

Job Approvals

Malloy put it best. “Governor Shapiro gets all the love with approval numbers other politicians would take in a Pennsylvania minute.”

Shapiro had a 59 percent job approval rating with just 23 percent disapproving. Casey also was above 50 percent, garnering 51 percent that approved of his performance, while 31 percent disapproved.

Sen. John Fetterman was 45-42, while Biden came in underwater with 58 percent disapproving and just 40 percent giving their approval. Nearly 1 in 4 respondents said they think more favorably of Fetterman for expressing strong support of Israel with 1 in 7 looking down on his statements. Nearly 40 percent of those surveyed stated they understand more about mental health struggles now because he is sharing his experiences and 86 percent think stigmas about mental health still exist.

GOP Primary

Now that the Pennsylvania primary date will stay on April 23, the next question becomes who will Keystone State GOP voters nominate. Trump pulled in 61 percent support from registered Republicans, well ahead of former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Florida governor Ron DeSantis polled at 10 percent, while former New Jersey governor Chris Christie received six percent support.

Among registered Republican voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, 13 percent say it is very likely that they will change their candidate choice if the candidate they are currently supporting is not a winner in one of the early primary states, 21 percent say it is somewhat likely, 16 percent say it is not so likely, and 45 percent say it is not likely at all.

The Most Urgent Issue

As Biden stumps in the Keystone State about the battle for “The Soul of America,” less than 1 in 4 respondents (24%) say preserving democracy in the United States in the most urgent issue out of 11 on a list. Twenty-three percent said border security, while 15 percent indicated the economy.

Not surprisingly, border security tops the concerns of Republicans (46%), while Democrats’ top choice was preserving democracy (44%). And independents split the difference, with 22 percent opting for border security and 22 percent preserving democracy.

Economy

One-third of voters (33%) describe the state of the nation’s economy as either excellent (3%) or good (30%), while two-thirds feel differently, saying it is not so good (30%) or poor (36%). Ironically, 64 percent of respondents describe their financial situation as excellent or good, while a little more than 1 in 3 disagree.

Methodology

1,680 Pennsylvania self-identified registered voters were surveyed from January 4th – January 8th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The survey included 651 self-identified registered Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 746 self-identified registered Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

24 Responses

  1. This poll is skewed in favor of Democrats.
    ” The survey includes 651 Registered
    Republicans with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 746
    Registered Democrats with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.”
    Information can be found at Quinipac’s universities poll.

    1. All polls are manufactured, manipulated propaganda.
      Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

  2. Sadly, the price of gas will determine who our next president is. Saving democracy is low on the list.

    1. Why is everything based on money! The root of all evil. Without our democracy, life as we know and love in the USA will be over! Vote democrat like your life depends on it because IT DOES!

    2. The day you will find out that you can’t make choices or that you can’t Vote; that’s the time you will wish that “Saving Democracy should have been the priority! But it will be too late.

      1. People take some time and read some history. We have never been nor were we intended to be a “democracy”. We are a representative republic. This was purposefully done by the founding fathers to prevent large population centers from becoming the rulers of the nation.

  3. I continue to do my best with posts to debunk obvious misinformation. Seriously, if we let the walking indictment back into the White House then Americans deserve to lose their democracy. We all know the difference between right and wrong.

  4. Without democracy it does not matter what you want on the border or jobs or inflation, etc. That is all out of your control.

    1. I agree with you completely! Respondents seem to not realize that if democracy is no longer our form of government, it means the people will no longer have a say in anything, such as border policy.

        1. Thank you, but I’m afraid too many refuse to even try to understand what you’re telling them. They are uneducated and take CNN and MSNBC as their fact sources. So when they same that democracy is doomed they cannot believe anything else.

    2. I don’t think a lot of Americans fully grasp the magnitude or seriousness of what losing the ability to democratically elect our representation means to our constitutional republic? Too many Americans don’t seem to understand that in an authoritarian government the citizenry is not guaranteed any of the rights we as Americans currently have and claim to hold so dear: like the freedom of speech and the press; freedom of religion; the freedom to marry whomever we choose; the freedom to travel abroad; the freedom to own and carry firearms; the freedom to protest or criticize the country’s leaders and government, and on and on… What’s worse, they don’t understand once rights have been taken away, it’s next to impossible to get them reinstated by an authoritarian leader. Authoritarian governments/leaders are all about ruling by maintaining and enforcing absolute control over their people. Russia is a perfect example how rights just disappear at the whim of dear leader.

      1. I really agree with you. I really believe that most Americans have no real idea what is in our Constitution!

      2. Thank you. Its refreshing to see at least a few reasonable, educated, non-indoctrinated posts on this thread.

      3. What an authoritarian government like we have now where MSM, tech, business, and government all conspire and lie to stay in power? Like that?

    3. Without a border there’s no country. Nothing else matters. DEMOCRATS are CLEARLY the threat to democracy (attempting to roll back almost all of our Constitutionality protected rights). Way too many examples for me to type. General rules: Whatever mainstream news outlets (and even more so, “academia”) says, is the exact opposite of the truth and can be easily objectively disproved. I sincerely hope that Americans and Pennsylvanians realize that we’re being lied to, manipulated and have the courage to stand up and fight back against those wanting to destroy our Constitutional Republic (hit, it’s a party starting with the letter “D”).

      1. How’s that? And how come Republican Governors can’t control their own border? Furthermore how come they won’t give the duly elected President the $ he needs for the border? And why is it you only care about the border? Please tell me how you work harder than any migrant worker anyway?





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