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Quinnipiac: Casey Leads McCormick, 50-44

Bob Casey, Dave McCormick

Never too early to start a horse race, right?

A Quinnipiac University poll of registered Pennsylvania voters showed Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. with a six-point advantage over Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

The three-term incumbent polled at 50 percent, while McCormick, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for the 2022 GOP senate nomination, drew 44 percent of the respondents. The margin of error was +/- 2.4 points.

Democrats were solidly behind Casey with 96 percent indicating their preference for him and just two percent opting for another candidate. McCormick’s numbers among the GOP respondents was 89-7.

Independents, on the other hand, were split down the middle with 45 percent supporting McCormick and 44 percent supporting Casey.

Even after nearly 18 years in Washington, more of those surveyed (31%) said they have not heard enough about Casey than had an unfavorable view of him (26%). Forty-two percent of respondents have a favorable opinion (+16) of the Scranton native.

McCormick has a +8 favorability rating with 25 percent having a favorable opinion versus 17 who do not. More than half (57%) indicated that they hadn’t head enough about him, despite his 2022 campaign.

Casey also polled well with the women included in the survey, receiving 60 percent support to just 38 for McCormick.

Job Approvals

President Joe Biden has a 41 percent approval rating, while 55 percent of those surveyed disapproved of his job performance.

Gov. Josh Shapiro remains among the best-liked Pennsylvania politicians with a 53 percent approval mark.

Among the state’s U.S. Senators, Casey has a 48 percent approval rating, while Sen. John Fetterman is at 41 percent.

Presidential Candidates

Former President Donald Trump is still the favorite among Pennsylvania Republicans for the GOP presidential nod, garnering 61 percent support – up 12 points from Quinnipiac’s June survey. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped 11 points to 14 percent support, while former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley polls at eight percent.

In a hypothetical rematch of 2020, Trump holds a 47-45 edge on Biden that is within the margin of error. Biden has a larger unfavorable rating of minus-18 (39-57), compared to Trump’s minus-16 (40-56). In a sign of possible choppy waters ahead for the incumbent, independents favored Trump over Biden, 48-39.

Among whites with 4-year college degrees, Trump is viewed unfavorably by 71 percent of respondents, while 51 percent of those without similar degrees have a favorable opinion.

1,725 Pennsylvania self-identified registered voters were surveyed from September 28th – October 2nd with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The survey included 711 self-identified registered Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points and 759 self-identified registered Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.


  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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