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Quinnipiac Poll: Biden 53, Trump 42

The Scranton native appears to be the Democrats best bet at taking Pennsylvania back over President Donald Trump. 

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a double digit lead in a hypothetical head to head matchup over President Donald Trump.

Biden holds 53% of the vote with Pennsylvania registered voters, while Trump carries 42%. Biden and Trump remain very popular within their own party in a head to head matchup, but the former Vice President takes a substantial lead with women and non-white voters.

Men are nearly evenly split between the two with 49% backing Trump and 45% supporting Biden, but with women voters 60% say they’ll vote for Biden, while only 36% committed to Trump. White voters are also rather divided between Biden and Trump. 49% of white voters selected Biden, while 45% say they support Trump. The widest gap between the two is with non-white voters with Biden carrying 70% in the poll and Trump only garnering 27%. Independent voters also back Biden over Trump by a 14 point advantage.

The poll, surveying 978 Pennsylvania voters, collected data from May 9-14, 2019. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

These promising numbers for Biden come in despite Pennsylvania voters approving Trump’s handling of the economy.

71% polled said the state’s economy is “excellent” or “good”, which is way higher than the data from a poll in Feb 2015 when only 46% of voters thought the economy was excellent or good.

Slightly over half of those polled, 54%, said they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, with 22% saying they are in the same situation and 21% saying they are worse off.

“More than half of Pennsylvania voters say they are better off financially than they were in 2016,” said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll. “But the economy isn’t giving President Donald Trump an edge in an early read of the very key Keystone State.”

The only other 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful that holds a lead over the margin of error in this poll is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Sanders bests Trump 50-43 with registered voters.

Trump is neck and neck with 4 other Democrats in hypothetical head to head matchups in the state. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) leads Trump by 3 points in this polling, while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg holds a 1 point lead over Trump. The President is locked at 45 points each with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and holds a 2 point lead in a matchup against former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke. All of these numbers fall within the margin of error.

This new polling also shows Biden holding a substantial lead in the crowded and growing Democratic primary field. 39% of Democrats polled chose Biden in the primary, while Sanders comes in second with 13%. Harris and Warren are even with 8% each, while Buttigieg carries 6%, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) brings in 5%. None of the other Democrats polled surpassed 2 percent in the primary.

This Democratic primary poll, surveying 431 registered Democrats, collected data from May 9-14, 2019.The margin of error for this survey is +/- 6.2 percentage points.

In the Democratic field, Pennsylvania voters overwhelmingly agree that Biden has the best chance at one terming Trump. 61% say Biden has the best chance at winning, while 6% say Sanders has the best chance at beating Trump.

Biden also boasts strong numbers of being the best leader in the Democratic field with nearly half, 45%, selecting him, while Sanders comes in second with 11% and Warren with 9%.

The gap significantly closes for Biden over the rest of the Democratic field when voters are asked who has the best policy ideas. 23% choose Biden for this question, while Sanders and Warren are locked at 18% each.

Both Biden and Trump are set to take on the keystone state in the next week. Biden is holding his campaign kick off rally in Philadelphia this Saturday, while Trump is holding a rally in Montoursville on Monday night. Sanders, O’Rourke, and Warren have all made campaign appearances in Pennsylvania since declaring their intentions for the White House.

See the full data here.

5 Responses

  1. Trump knows Biden got his number and is panicking. Watch the political comments and tweets come in waves. I see Biden/Warren for 2020.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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