It’s going to be a close one.
At least that’s the conclusion of the latest Quinnipiac Poll that paired Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton against GOP presumptive nominee Donald Trump.
They found 43% are backing Clinton while 42% support Trump. This is not much different from their survey last month which showed a 45% to 42% advantage for the former Secretary of State.
Breaking the numbers down, each candidate has strong support among their party with Clinton leading 82-7 with Dems and Trump ahead 82-6 with Republicans. Trump is leading at the moment with independents, 43-36.
There are huge demographic differences in this match-up, none bigger than the gender gap.
By a 51% to 32% margin, women prefer Clinton. Meanwhile, men support Trump 54% to 33%.
Non-whites skew heavily in Hillary’s favor, 74-14, while whites favor Donald, 48-37. His margin among white voters though is driven by males, 60-28, as white women narrowly favor the female candidate, 45-39.
Quinnipiac also found quite a large educational gap as college graduates support Clinton 47% to 38%. Those that did not graduate college on the other hand, back Trump 45% to 40%.
When broken down by age, Clinton does best with 18-34 year olds (43/36) and 50-64 year olds (46/42). Trump is ahead with those over 65 (49/42) and 35-49 year olds (43/42).
One trend to look for is whether Bernie Sanders’ enthusiastic young voters move to the Clinton camp or decide to stay home. 13% of 18-34 year olds said they wouldn’t vote in a Clinton-Trump match-up.
Favorability
While Trump is still slightly behind Clinton, he can take some satisfaction in the fact that his favorable numbers are better. Just 39% view him favorably against 55% who view him unfavorably. That still beats Clinton’s numbers, though, as 37% have a favorable impression of her while 58% have an unfavorable one.
Once again, Clinton could use the help of Sanders as her overall rating is dragged down by an anemic 23% favorability rating with young voters alongside a 70% unfavorable number.
Issues
Trump also has an edge on the issues as respondents believe he would do a better job than Clinton in handling the economy (51/42) and terrorism (47/46).
Yet PA voters disagree with The Donald on his key pledge. 51% oppose building a wall along the Mexican border against 45% that support such a move. Also, 58% support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
Personalities
Voters don’t think either candidate is particularly honest or trustworthy. Nevertheless, Trump (39/55) performs better than Clinton does (30/67). Once again, Hillary is being dragged down by the opinion of young people (16/84) who are likely angry that she is poised to beat Bernie in the Democratic primary.
Both Donald and Hillary are considered to have strong leadership qualities, though, and Trump (62/37) again leads Clinton (58/40) in this category.
The former Secretary of State regains the upper hand on the question of who cares more about the needs of people like you. While her 44-52 split isn’t great, it’s better than Trump’s 39-58 split.
There is also a gigantic difference when it comes to who voters think has the right personality and temperament to handle an international crisis. Clinton (55/42) is vastly ahead of Trump (33/62) by that measure.
Respondents were also asked who had the higher moral standards and 48% went with Clinton as opposed to 39% that chose Trump.
Finally, by a 52% to 35% margin, voters believe Hillary is more intelligent than Donald.
This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from April 27th to May 8th. They contacted 1,077 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3%.
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25 Responses
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http://gabbleworld.com/blogs/695/3669/an-issue-to-mention-how-to-sell-your-house
There is no question that Hillary needs Bernie Sanders’ supporters in order to win this election. It’s precisely what we’re seeing in the zeitgeist on the Republican side–people tired of “politics as usual.” Hillary’s negatives are high. She does not do well with Independents. Bernie has masses of energized voters and appeals to Independents and even some of those tired-of-politics-as-usual Republicans. The Democrats had better stop thinking like dinosaurs. Looking at you, Ed Rendell.
It is a toss up at this point what Berners as a whole will do. My take is that, in order, most Berners with whom I’ve interacted regularly (almost daily) for almost a year, will:
1) Write in Bern,
2) Vote Stein,
3) Stay Home (tie)
3) Vote HRC (tie)
4) Vote Libertarian
5) Vote Trump
Most recently TheBern routed Clinton by 16 points in West Virginia. Just under 3 votes to every 2 of her votes.
Hillary did not win one, single county in West Virginia.
Trump won every, single county in West Virginia.
WV has picked 5 of the past 6 POTUS contenders since 2000, including Clinton in 08.
Missed only Huckabee to McCain
This is our Democratic nominee. The unstoppable one. She did not take 37% of her own party’s primary.
The opponent she will presumably face in just less than 6 months – arguably the weakest GOP candidate in General Election history – took better than double that, among his party’s base.
We Dems could screw this up exactly and only one way: by sending the weaker candidate forward to face him. We seem bent on doing exactly that.
#FeelTheBern to stop a mistake. Or get whoever among the wildly unpopular front runners scratches out the most votes, among whoever else runs against them.
We’ll see you at the DNC Convention in Philly in July, where we delegates will do all we can to make our Democratic Platform something more liberals can support, so we have a better chance in future races.
~ Steve Todd
Candidate, Democratic Delegate for Bernie Sanders, PA Congressional District 15
Donald Trump destroyed 16 Republican candidates with his unique style.
I look forward when he will turn his attention, and the media’s attention, to Hillary Clinton’s many vulnerabilities in the way that only Donald Trump can.
I was one of the registered voters they called. Yes, I finished the poll. And yes, it was one of the most frustrating I ever participated in. Many of the questions were Yes/No with no wiggle room with so much as an “I don’t know” as a choice, and there was plenty of subtext to the wording. Get away from the top sheet numbers and drill down.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bad-ratings_us_5731d2a6e4b0bc9cb047e596
““Primaries can be divisive, but the most recent CNN poll found that Democratic voters show little disunion. A whopping 86% of Sanders’ supporters say they would vote for Hillary Clinton and only 10% would vote for Trump. In contrast, 70% of non-Trump Republican voters say they would vote for Trump. That same CNN poll found 85% of liberals supporting Clinton while only 66% of conservatives supporting Trump. “
Thank you for posting the poll. Perhaps I am in the vast minority but in this case, the poll, at least to me, means nothing. It will come down to the debates & who wins them. It will come down to whichever candidate has the most effective commercials, and the total media blitz the candidates put over. Last but not least, it will come down to (sadly) which candidate will the media favor?
CBS Exit Poll right now: of WV Bernie Voters, 23% would vote Shill, 32% would not vote, and a full 44% would vote for Trump. So, you know, stick your Shillary assumptions in your Chairman Mao jacket. But don’t let facts get in the way of your arrogance…
Not me at 3:50. Trump in a LANDSLIDE. Just like I said 6 months ago.
Poor Observer. Hoping against hope that his next POTUS will not be Hillary Clinton. Poor thing.
Lololol… Must get very loud in that Hillary Echo Chamber! You might get out and about a little, and talk to actual Bernie supporters – you now, Independents? Shill might get a few dyed-in-the-wool Democrats who leab bernie right now, but almost none of the Berners I know well will have anything to do with her. Please, get off your couches and get to a Bernie rally – you might learn something.
Observer
I saw some news today or last night expecting that Hillary will get 86% of Bernie’s voters and 10% of them will vote for Trump (the Susan Sarandon crowd)
Observer you repeatedly show yourself to be one of dumbest people on this site. You make claims like “Hillary won’t get Bernie’s voters”, completely ignoring all polling data that shows she would get around 70-75%. Even that is likely low since they are being polled while Bernie is still running.
Diano once again shows how bad he is at the “politics” thing. Hillary is not going to get Bernie’s voters. Period.
Way to bury the lede, PoliticsPA. That same poll found that Bernie does better against Trump than Hillary in ALL THREE SWING STATES.
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 – Trump 42; Sanders 47 – Trump 41
Want to keep the White House, Democrats? Make Bernie your nominee.
Yes John we voters are all stupid. Stupid enough to recognize that NO candidate does any of what they say they are going to do. Too stupid to realize that we have had enough. Too stupid to recognize that US Foreign policy has become a distorted view of itself actually advocating positions that are against US self interest. Too stupid to realize that someone who is not inside the beltway, a bought and paid for elected official, or an elite member of the media can actually posses a valid idea on how to correct our flawed government. Yeah well let me help you out—we voters have had enough of being told what to do by so called party leaders D and R, conservative leaders, progressive leaders any leaders. Trump is no republican he just hijacked their car on the way to the convention and you know what most voters are going to be ok with that!!!!
Consider the source people!their track record is absolutely terrible!
Why no Sanders vs. Trump? There are fifty states, not just ‘Philly’. Ex-gov Rendell’s backhanded threat for Sanders supporters behaving themselves was ridiculous and damaging. As far as Mr. Diano’s “Sanders supporters getting on board” reference, TPP is ‘now’ off the table for HRC, who’s really getting on board? This is pathetic, most Republicans can’t stand Trump,but they don’t trust Clinton. Anybody ever hear of Independents, they vote in the general.
51 to 42 in favor of Trump on economy? That’s scary. Jesus voters are stupid. We’re all screwed.
This wasn’t supposed to happpen! The GOP voters are uniting behind their nominee leaving leadership wringing their hands while HRC was supposed to walk over Trump in PA causing the analysists to put PA to “leaning Den” just last week.
The results will get better once Bernie endorses Hillary and gets his followers on board with the program.
Important to note this is a poll of “voters,” meaning it’s not comparable to polls of “adults” or of “likely voters.” In terms of accuracy in election predictions, polling “voters” is so-so. I’d rely more on polls of “likely voters” any day of the week.