Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton, Trump Lead Respective Primaries

Hillary TrumpPennsylvanians seem to favor New Yorkers.

At least according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leading their respective party primaries.

Democratic Primary

Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 50% to 44% among likely Democratic voters.

The former Secretary of State leads among those: 65 or older (64-26), women (56-38), with a college degree (56-41), between 45 and 64 (56-41), moderates (55-38), and somewhat liberals (51-43).

Sanders, on the other hand, has the advantage with those between the ages of 18 and 44 (67-27), very liberals (63-33) and men (53-40).

Those without a college degree are evenly split at 46%.

Republican Primary

Trump wins a plurality (39%) in this three-way contest with Ted Cruz (30%) and John Kasich (24%).

Trump wins among those without a college degree, moderates, somewhat conservatives, men and women.

Cruz is ahead with the tea party, evangelicals, and very conservatives.

Kasich, meanwhile, has the lead among those with a college degree.

General Election Match-Ups

Clinton beats Trump head-to-head 45% to 42%. A Clinton-Cruz contest, though, would be tied in the Keystone State with each at 43%. On top of that, Kasich easily prevails over Hillary, 51% to 35% .

Sanders fares better, defeating both Trump (48% to 40%) and Cruz (46% to 38%).

Nevertheless, Kasich also outperforms Bernie by a 46% to 40%.

Favorability

Given the above results, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see that Kasich has the best favorable/unfavorable ratings although that’s mostly because many still don’t know him.

His split is 49/17 with a third of respondents not having heard enough about him.

Sanders is second best with a 49/37 showing while Cruz and Clinton are each under water with 32/50 and 35/59 respectively.

Trump fares worst with just 32% of Pennsylvanians having a favorable opinion of him while 60% view him unfavorably.

This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from March 30th to April 4th. They contacted 1,737 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.4%. For Democrats, it was 514 likely primary voters with a +/- 4.3% margin of error. For Republicans, it was 578 likely primary voters with a +/- 4.1% margin of error.

7 Responses

  1. Elizabeth – You are right. I think the Dems are fine for President and it is tight for the Senate. Here are the Demographics used for the Senate race:
    PARTY IDENTIFICATION
    Republican 36%
    Democrat 34
    Independent 24
    Other/DK/NA 6
    PHONE DISTRIBUTION
    Cell only 27%
    Land Line only 9
    Both, cmp from cell sample 15
    Both, cmp from land sample 50
    RACE
    White 82%
    Black 10
    Hispanic 3
    Other/DK/NA 5

  2. This poll seems to be an outlier. The participants of the survey are likely primary voters, rather than registered voters. (The deadline to register for the primary in PA was March 28. The sample of 514 likely Democratic primary voters had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points and 26% of respondents identified as independents. Finally, PA is a diverse state but the sample is 82% white.

  3. Republicans have three weeks to wake up and do the politically rational thing which to rally behind a candidate that can win. Kasich wins because people for varying reasons do not like Trump, Hillary, Cruz or Bernie.

  4. Bernie Sanders wil likely close this small gap quickly. So much for the Harper Poll. I choose to believe Q-Poll is far more accurate. In any case, Q-Poll shows what everyone has been saying—-Bernie beats the Republican field, Hillary does not. Coattails/turnout all belong to Bernie! Bernie is surging, Clinton is fading. People like to vote for those they TRUST. Bernie is trustworthy and Bernie does not lie. Clinton is getting vindictive and on edge–signs she knows she is sinking and Bernie is surging.

  5. I would be interested to see the geographic distribution of these results. I don’t doubt them, I just want to see where candidates are running stronger.

  6. The Dems are in a great position no matter who the Republicans nominate.I’m a Bernie supporter and I think Bernie is in a better position. Quinnipac is using old demographic data and used the following methodology:
    PARTY IDENTIFICATION
    Republican 36%
    Democrat 34
    Independent 24
    Other/DK/NA 6
    PHONE DISTRIBUTION
    Cell only 27%
    Land Line only 9
    Both, cmp from cell sample 15
    Both, cmp from land sample 50
    RACE
    White 82%
    Black 10
    Hispanic 3
    Other/DK/NA 5

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