Quinnipiac Poll: Obama 45, Romney 39

The Presidential contest in PA has steadied according to the latest poll by Quinnipiac. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 6 points, similar to the firm’s findings in mid-June (Obama 46, Romney 40) and May (Obama 47, Romney 39).

Other recent polls show Obama leading 48 to 36 (F&M, early June); Obama leading 47 to 41 (Rasmussen, late May); and Obama leading 50 to 42 (PPP, late May).

Obama leads among PA women 48 to 36 percent while men are split 41 to 42 percent. Romney leads among independents here by a noteworthy margin, 43 to 37 percent.

Both men are in negative territory vis-a-vis approval: Obama by a margin of 45 to 47 percent, Romney by a margin of 34 to 39 percent. Obama’s job approval and ‘deserves re-election’ numbers are similar: 45 to 49 percent and 45 to 47 percent, respectively.

“Pennsylvania voters have no great love for President Barack Obama, but at this point they like Gov. Mitt Romney less,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Women, especially, are in the president’s corner.”

Asked who would do a better job on the economy, voters split 44 to 44. Finally, Obama’s recent policy shift on immigration earned the support of a majority of PA voters, 51 to 41 percent.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,252 Pennsylvania voters via live interviews on land lines and cell phones. The margin of error of is +/- 2.8 percent.

The pollster also found the President with leads in Florida (4 points) and Ohio (9 points).

6 Responses

  1. Registered vs Likely makes little difference in hot presidential election year.

    74% of the currently registered Democrats in PA voted in 2008.
    76% of the current Republicans voted in 2008.

    That was essentially a tie in terms of turnout performance by each party. The performance “gap” for 2010 and 2004 was close to 10 percent.

    I think you have to lean toward 2008 (the last presidential) as the basis for predictions.

  2. It is very important to note that this was a Registered Voter poll, not a LIKELY voter poll. Considering this, Obama cannot be pleased with the numbers. Romney may have “lower” rankings, but he has much more room to improve since he is still making an impression.

  3. Thomas and David… the registration number is meaningless because that electorate never shows up. If we are going off 2008, you would go with 42 D / 37 R/ 21 I. 2004 and 2010 were closer.

    Both of these candidates are quite pathetic. Neither of them are exceeding their party’s respective floors.

  4. I wonder what the sampling was? 40% Dem, 30% Rep, and 30% Ind? I’d like to see a poll with an accurate sample!

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