Quinnipiac Poll: Obama Snags Double-Digit Lead in PA

President Obama’s Pennsylvania lead has grown since June, according to the latest poll from Quinnipiac. He leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent.

It’s about twice the lead the 6 point lead President had in the two most recent Quinnipiac polls. One released June 27 showed him ahead 45 percent to 39 for Romney; one release June 12 showed Obama leading 46 percent to 40 for Romney.

His job approval is also net positive for the first time in months: 49 percent of PA voters approve versus 46 percent who disapprove. Those numbers are reversed from June 12.

That seems to be driven by a wide margin among women voters, who favor the President by a whopping 24 point margin: 59 percent to 35. Men go slightly for Romney 50 percent to 47.

Independent voters support Obama 58 percent to 36.

The bevy of ads from Obama and his super PAC allies seems to be paying off. Romney’s personal favorability is negative in PA by 8 points, 39 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable. Obama enjoys a positive 53 percent to 42 rating.

“President Barack Obama is ahead by just about every measure in the Keystone State: He’s got a double digit lead; his voters seem more committed to him and Pennsylvanians like him more,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Often the silver lining for the Romney camp in PA polls has been the question of who would better handle the economy. But this time, poll respondents gave the edge to Obama in that category 48 to 44 percent.

However, the policies of both men receive negative reviews. “Obama’s policies would hurt rather than help them, Pennsylvania voters say 37 – 23 percent, while 37 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say 32 – 26 percent, while 37 percent see no difference,” wrote the pollster.

But, importantly, on the issue where President Obama is picking a fight with the GOP, most PA voters back him. By a margin of 62 percent to 34, respondents support raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 per year.

Also released were polls of voters in Florida and Ohio, where the race is closer. Obama leads 51 percent to 45 in the Sunshine State, 50 percent to 44 in the Buckeye State.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,168 likely Pennsylvania voters via live calls to land lines and cell phones. The margin or error is +/1 2.9 percent.

Update: Republican political consultant Chris Nicholas noted that the demographics of the Q-Pac poll don’t reflect voter registration realities in the state, with the poll having surveyed 32 percent Republicans, 36 percent Democrats and 26 percent Independents.

Nicholas said no state House district has more than 18 percent of voters registered Independent, and because Independents are overrepresented it skewed the poll results too heavily in the Dems’ favor “as they tend to be less interested and vote less too,” he said.

They sided with the Democrats on Obama and Casey, and in their disapproval of Corbett too.

However, while Nicholas notes that using 26 percent of registered Independents does not reflect reality, the poll question asked self-described ideology, not registration. And party registration is asked two questions later: with 40 percent Republican, 46 percent Democrat, 12 percent other.

Actual registration is currently 50 percent Dem, 37 percent GOP and 12.5 percent other. Pretty close.

August 1st, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 7 Comments

7 thoughts on “Quinnipiac Poll: Obama Snags Double-Digit Lead in PA”

  1. Alex Hamilton says:

    Quinnipiac is putting out some pretty lousy polls. They’re quickly becoming a joke.

  2. David Diano says:

    Chris Nicholas should know better for two reasons:

    1) the Dems are 50% of PA electorate, so if they were under sampled, it’s worst for GOP

    2) Quinnipiac isn’t stupid. They have been doing this for a while now, and know how to weight the results so they match the distribution of the registration.

    this type of adjustment is standard practice.

    If PoliticsPA is going to update a news story with an “expert”, the first step should be to find an expert.

  3. Blair says:

    This is yet ANOTHER biased poll that assumes Dem. turnout greater than 2008. Ridiculous. At least it may make liberals complacent.

  4. David Diano says:

    Probably not. There are very few competitive districts.

  5. delco observer says:

    Questions is does this translate into Dem momentum in congressional and legislative races?

  6. David Diano says:

    Keegan-
    You should put more emphasis (maybe even in the headline) that this is LIKELY voters, which is a change from previous Quinnipiac polls in PA of just registered voters.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

  7. Mitt and Anne's Stallion says:

    “Whinney…neigh…oats”

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