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Quinnipiac Poll: Paul 45 Clinton 44 in PA 2016 Matchup

hillary-sadYeah, that email scandal definitely had an effect.

The big question, though, is whether it will last.

Quinnipiac University Polling surveyed Pennsylvania (as well as Ohio and Florida) to see what affect the furor over Hillary Clinton’s emails would have on her expected candidacy.

Across the board, the former Secretary of State’s numbers were weaker.


In a new round of head-to-head matchups against possible GOP opponents, Clinton fared much worse. In fact, for the first time a Republican hopeful finished ahead of her.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul bested Clinton by a single point, 45% to 44%. While small and perhaps temporary, it is the first real sign of trouble for Clinton in a state she was considered strong in.

“A red flag in blue state Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton, seemingly invincible before the e-mail scandal, ends up tied with Rand Paul,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Hillary still leads Chris Christie (45-40), Jeb Bush (46-40) and Mike Huckabee (47-41), albet by much smaller margins than she did in February.

She also comes out on top, though, against Marco Rubio (46-42), Scott Walker (46-41) and Ted Cruz (48-39). So, these numbers shouldn’t cause a sense of panic.

Her base of Democratic and female voters remain loyal, however, independents and male voters are wavering.


Clinton’s favorability took a big hit dropping from 55/38 favorable/unfavorable last month to 48/47 favorable/unfavorable this month.

The good news is that is far better than any of her counterparts. The bad news is those numbers resemble her ratings from 2007.

Additionally, the gender split on this question is massive. By a 57% to 36% margin females view her favorably while males view her unfavorably by a 37% to 59% margin.


Quinnipiac asked if the issue of her emails was seen by respondents as an important issue.

33% said it was “very important”, 19% responded “somewhat important, 19% went with “not so important” while 28% stated “not important at all”. That comes to 52% saying it was important and 47% saying it wasn’t.

54% of respondents feel the episode “makes no difference” on whether they’ll vote for her while 41% says it makes them “less likely” to support her and 3% are “more likely” to support her.

Perhaps most distressing for the Clinton camp is that only 44% of PA voters find her honest and trustworthy compared to 49% who do not.

Yet voters are exactly split (48/48) on whether a congressional investigation should be done and a majority (55/42) feel it would be “politically motivated” rather than “justified”.

The silver linings for Hillary are that voters still think she is a strong leader (62% to 35%) and approve of her job as Secretary of State (53% to 44%).

This Quinnipiac survey was conducted from March 17th to March 28th. 1,036 Pennsylvania registered voters were interviewed live through land lines and cell phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

6 Responses

  1. Less provincially, Mrs. Clinton’s negatives rise in leans red Florida as a result of dissembling about email. ( “I have nothing to hide but I hid is anyway.”

    Former Republican Jeb Bush defeats her Florida Senator Marco Rubio is gaining. Palm Beach Post “Sen. Marco Rubio has also gained substantially on Clinton in Florida, trailing by 2 points in the new poll after being 10 points down in early February and 14 points down in July.”

    Unlike Pennsylvania, Florida has a Republican, you know, one that doesn’t raise taxes like a Democrat. Tom Corbett, and the opportunistic hacks getting rich from bad government, did more damage to the Republican Party than any Democrat could have.

  2. Note that Mrs. Clinton defeats EVERY Republican by big numbers except Rand Paul. It is highly unlikely that Rand Paul will be Republican nominee. (Foreign policy is major issue and Rand Paul’ non-interventionsist/isolationist base won’t be happy if he becomes more assertive internationally.)

    Pennsylvania is a blue state. To the southeast liberal Democrat, Mrs. Clinton may be terrible but ANY Republican is more terrible.

  3. Uh-oh libbies, Hillary’s “favorability rating” is down 4% in Florida in just 1 month. At this rate, she’ll be at 0% a year from now.

  4. Its just my opinion but I think PA is trending more Republican anyway. I don’t think 2016 is an automatic given for the Democrats this time.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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