Since 1960, no presidential candidate has won the office without carrying at least two of the three major swing states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

According to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released yesterday, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) lead their respective parties in Pennsylvania for the 2016 presidential primaries.

Republican Primary

With 14 percent, Walker also saw the largest gain of any candidate since a February 4 Quinnipiac poll which listed him at six percent. Throughout the rest of the Republican party, only former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas junior Sen. Ted Cruz saw increases since February, gaining one percent each.

Both men and women had Walker topping their list.

“Gov. Scott Walker continues to be the surprise in the early part of the 2016 campaign. We’ve got a long way to go till Iowans caucus next winter, but the Wisconsin governor has climbed into the first tier of contenders along with establishment favorite Jeb Bush, who can’t be happy with his numbers today,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

With 14 percent, Walker tops the state Republican field while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson tie for second, garnering nine percent each. Bush dropped from 12 percent last month.

“Bush has a lead over the field in his home state of Florida, but it’s not anywhere near insurmountable. There is no clear leader in Pennsylvania and Gov. John Kasich, the native son, is ahead in Ohio,” Brown added.

Although Bush dropped out of the lead, Chris Christie took the hardest fall in April as he tumbled from 11 percent to a mere five percent, pushing him back to ninth in the GOP.

Democratic Primary

Switching gears, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead at 48 percent with Massachusetts senior Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Joe Biden at 15 and 13 percent, respectively.

“On the Democratic side Secretary Clinton’s commanding lead for the nomination is only slightly less commanding, apparently due to the news media focus on questions about her email and foreign government donations to her family foundation,” Brown said. “But Democratic primary voters still consider her a demi-god and those who think she is beatable in a nomination fight caucus in phone booths.”

Despite the controversy over her use of e-mails as Secretary of State, Clinton has only lost six points since February. Both Warren and Biden gained three percent in the April poll.

Note that while Warren ranked second in the overall field, Clinton-voters favored Biden to Warren by seven percent when the question was revised to exclude their first choice. But Warren did see an increase in that number by six percent as Biden remained stagnant.

This Quinnipiac survey was conducted from March 17th to March 28th. 1,036 Pennsylvania registered voters were interviewed live through land lines and cell phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3%.