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Rasmussen Poll: Smith Overtakes Romney, Casey Up By 7

Republican Senate hopeful Tom Smith still trails Bob Casey, but his race is closer than the presidential contest in Pa. That’s according to the latest poll from Rasmussen, which showed Smith behind Casey 49 percent to 42. Rasmussen’s most recent survey of the presidential head to head showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 12 point margin, 51 percent to 39.

It’s the first time in 2012 that any pollster has shown the Senate campaign narrower than the presidential in numbers released the same week.

Casey is viewed favorably by just over half of voters, 51 percent, and negatively by 39 percent. Smith’s name ID remains lower but he’s still viewed positively, 47 percent to 33 percent. 20 percent of voters don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.

Unlike the presidential matchup, Casey, the Democrat, leads both men and women: men 50 percent to 45, women 48 percent to 40.

Presidential campaign spending, namely on television, has slowed in recent weeks almost to nothing. Obama’s ads are playing on national cable, with no other campaigns or PACs on the air.

The senate race, meanwhile, is heating up. Both candidates are on the air and taking shots at one another. Casey has sought to portray Smith as a tea partier who is outside the mainstream. Smith recently cast Casey as a tax and spend liberal.

The relative advantage Smith has to Romney explains the Senate hopeful’s recent shift in campaign strategy. Since he jumped into the race last year, Smith treated Casey’s ties with Obama as the incumbent Democrat’s greatest liability for the entire campaign. That changed in August.

Smith still has catching up to do, according to an average of polls in the race compiled by Real Clear Politics. Casey leads by 13.2 points on average, including this Rasmussen survey.

In fact, the latest margin is wider than a Rasmussen poll from late May. That survey, which was an outlier at the time, showed Casey leading by the same margin: 48 percent to 41.

Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters via automated telephone calls on September 19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percent. 44 percent of respondents were Democrats, 39 percent Republicans and 16 percent independent or other.

8 Responses

  1. Independent, good pollsters should weight the parties (the number of Democrats vs. Republicans sampled) according to their expected turnout, not their registration. Regardless, more Democrats have voted Republican in Pennsylvania over the years than vice versa, which is why, for example, in addition to higher turnout, Republicans dominated the 2010 elections, despite the large Democratic registration advantage you cited.

  2. Your reporting failed to mention that Rasmussen invariably skews Republican.

    “Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters…44 percent of Democrats, 39 percent Republicans and 16 percent independent”

    The actual voter breakdown in PA is 50% D; 37% R; 13% Indy.

    It should be no surprise that these numbers are inconsistent with just about every other (nonpartisan) poll conducted in recent months.
    “Casey leads by 13.2 points on average, including this Rasmussen survey.”

  3. Tom Smith is also a good man, running an honest campaign. Instead of personally slandering Casey (as Obama does Romney), he is debating the issues, clearly and purposefully. Vote for Romney and Smith and they will fix the problems in Washington, rather than change our country.
    Obama wants to change our country: look at how he mutilated our flag, removing the 50 states and replacing them with himself, replacing the 13 colonies with 5 blood red stripes.
    Pay attention to this big picture he is painting, because he hates the US and what it stands for. Why do you think the Founding Fathers made it law that a President would be a natural born citizen? To reduce the chance of foreign nationals corrupting this country to benefit another. (releasing terrorists from Guantanimo).
    Why has his campaign still not given out the identities of all contributors to his 2008 campaign?
    How does he afford a $35,000,000 home in Hawaii?
    Great article. “what’s really behind Obama’s Benghazi bunkum”

  4. Wow, Mr. Gibson. I am shocked (tongue firmly planted in cheek). I see no mention on this site, including your “Morning Buzz” report of the latest Pittsburgh Trib-Review poll results which has Obama 47 Romney 45. Why no mention????

  5. Tom Smith has the resources to expose Bob Casey’s record of following the failed policies of Barack Obama.

    Bob Casey is a Follower: Tom Smith is a Job Creator, who met a payroll and lived the American Dream of success. Those who have met Tom Smith recognize the authenticity and innate intelligence of the man.

  6. Rasmussen is still an outlier. Any pollster who tilts as strongly to one party as Rasmussen does should be discounted. They’re a Republican pollster, and they should be reported as such.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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