Reader Poll: Which Democrat is Most Vulnerable to a Primary Challenge?

PA US House Map 2013Campaigns, donors and politicos are already gearing up for next year’s midterm elections, including many candidates looking to challenge congressional incumbents in the primary.

A couple of weeks ago, we asked our readers which of Pa.’s 13 GOP congressmen is most vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Now we’d like to know which Democrat you think has the most to fear from his party base.

Democrats hold a mere 5 of Pa.’s 18 congressional seats, all of which are in or near the cities of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia or the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area.

Four Democrats, excluding Allyson Schwartz (who is running for Governor), are poised to seek another term.

With these districts likely to stay blue next year, some members of Congress could face a challenge on their left flank.

Vote here:

Which Democrat is most vulnerable to a primary challenge?

  • PA-17: Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) (54%)
  • PA-14: Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny) (25%)
  • PA-1: Bob Brady (D-Phila) (13%)
  • PA-2: Chaka Fattah (D-Phila) (9%)

Total Voters: 327

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11 Responses

  1. TommyD-

    When I saw the headline, so soon after the weak campaign finance numbers, I thought Sestak might actually be mentioned as vulnerable to a challenge. A few people I spoke to expect that the either McCord or Schwartz will challenge him, and I’ve heard talk of others.

    I wonder if Sestak loses the primary, if he will finally stop the pretense of living in PA and sell his house.

    Scotty- What was the demographic breakdown BEFORE the redistricting? My understanding was that it had an even higher percentage of blacks before.

  2. Dave here is the breakdown of the district:
    PA #1 Brady D+25
    37.1% White,
    45.9% Black,
    4.9% Asian,
    15.0% Hispanic,
    0.3% Native American,
    0.3% other

    While Blacks don’t have a Plurality they certainly could mount a challenge. It is a Minority Majority District. They are the largest Minority. Brady is a real old school city dem. And a Dumb ass. I think he is only congressman without a college degree. He only cares about himself.

  3. Diano turns it into another attack on Sestak. Hey Dave, your obsession is showing…

  4. David is right. Brady made himself the least vulnerable by aiding the Republicans in redistricting. Fattah is not far behind, but you have to wonder if he will get pulled down by his son’s ethical troubles.

  5. Scotty- Well, Brady worked hard to support the latest redistricting, which “coincidentally” made his district more-white/less-black.

  6. If you look at the districts maps Bob Brady is the most vulnerable to a primary challenger. If a black candidate had the balls to run against him. I think he could be very well lose. Brady is powerful but his seat is very ethnic.

  7. Matt Cartwright’s congressional spokesman is also his campaign operative – how is that allowed under the Ethics rules?
    Not sure how anyone can claim Matt Cartwright is valuable, name a single thing he’s done or even aims to do.

  8. Primarying Cartwright would be the dumbest thing Pennsylvania Democrats could do; he is easily the most valuable congressional representative we have.

  9. Doesn’t Matt already have a few challengers?

    Based on Sestak’s weak fundraising 2nd quarter, I’d say he’s the most vulnerable Democrat to a primary challenge. 🙂

    I think the loser of Schwartz vs McCord might challenge Sestak, or really just anyone that can raise some money and actually admit they are running for Senate (instead of “exploring”).

    2016 is the best shot to knock out Toomey. While I originally figured Sestak wouldn’t get a primary challenge, his weakness this quarter will probably attract some competition. Besides, why would Dems want to support Sestak to run as a one-term Senator, if another viable candidate enters the stage?

  10. The people claiming it’s Cartwright are nuts. Matt Cartwright is so popular with local Democrats and is easily the most valuable member of the PA Democratic delegation.

  11. I just spoke with Mike Turzai and he stated “What, wait, you mean even with the maps we drew up, there are still 4 Democrats in the US Congress from PA?”.

Comments are closed.

  • Reader Poll: Have You Requested a Mail-In Ballot?

    • Yes. I enjoy mail-in voting. (50%)
    • No. I am going to the poll. (50%)

    Total Voters: 121

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