At least that’s the classification from RealClearPolitics. RCP moved PA from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” today.
It’s important to note that RealClearPolitics is not a prognosticating website but rather a poll aggregator. As a result, any state that has an average difference of five points or less between the candidates becomes a toss-up. For example, Texas is also currently deemed a toss-up.
Additionally, Donald Trump has yet to lead one of the PA surveys RCP tracks since July.
This is Pennsylvania: 28 consecutive public polls place Clinton in the lead pic.twitter.com/GKnEOzvk3X
— Charlie Mahtesian (@PoliticoCharlie) October 27, 2016
Their map does show, however, how important Pennsylvania is to the Clinton campaign. Along with states like Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire it represents her “firewall” of 272 electoral votes. Because of her advantage in the Keystone State, Clinton could afford to lose Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and even Maine’s 2nd Congressional District yet still win.
That makes Pennsylvania a must-win state for the Trump campaign.