RealClearPolitics Moves PA to “Toss-Up” Status

rcp-map-10-27-16Pennsylvania is a toss-up.

At least that’s the classification from RealClearPolitics. RCP moved PA from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” today.

It’s important to note that RealClearPolitics is not a prognosticating website but rather a poll aggregator. As a result, any state that has an average difference of five points or less between the candidates becomes a toss-up. For example, Texas is also currently deemed a toss-up.

Additionally, Donald Trump has yet to lead one of the PA surveys RCP tracks since July.

Their map does show, however, how important Pennsylvania is to the Clinton campaign. Along with states like Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire it represents her “firewall” of 272 electoral votes. Because of her advantage in the Keystone State, Clinton could afford to lose Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and even Maine’s 2nd Congressional District yet still win.

That makes Pennsylvania a must-win state for the Trump campaign.

23 Responses

  1. I guess our Tiny county’s Beat Philadelphia ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

  2. ????????????????????????????????????????????????❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️????????????????????❤️????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

  3. I thought we were going to lose I was Right and You Were Wrong Why was I Right I don’t except the nonsense from MSNBC, ABC CBS CNN what ever they say believe the opposite And the same Go’s for Sheppard Smith , Meghan , Steirwalt and al the other Losers ????????????

  4. president Trump Learn to love the word you will be hearing for the next 4 year Pa Loves Trump

  5. PA is NOT SE PA + Fithadelphia where the rabid liberals and lefties live. It is a red state at heart and will prove this out by electing Trump! You loser libs are backing a criminal felon on her way to being indicted!

  6. Keep in mind Johnathan is also a racist. Who could forget when her perpetrated racist lies such as in 2010 saying…

    “Is anyone else pissed off about the black panthers getting off scott free for voters intimidation in philly A group should form called the white lions and go down to defend voters from the Black panthers”

  7. Jonathan Skedel-Yep you’re right. That’s why we had President Romney, Senator Smith, and Governor Swann…

  8. Jonathan Skedel-

    Most of the 67 counties have tiny populations. The top 4 counties represent over 1/3 of the voters.

  9. Ah yes, the old One-County-One-Vote system… I’ve actually seen Trump supporters calling for abolishing the Electoral College, which would just marginalize them even further (though it would have saved Republicans from the disastrous Bush 43 administration). Maybe future presidential candidates would wave from their airplanes while they fly over to the next major metropolitan area instead of just ignoring them altogether. It would certainly create incentives to keep taxpayer dollars in the cities and metropolitan areas where they were generated instead of subsidizing all of these rural freeloaders. 😉

  10. Trump is a LOSER even if he wins podunk counties. All it will prove is the deplorable state of PA education that such a con artist can scam so many PA voters.

  11. Trump will win totally win contest of who wins the most Pennsylvania counties! He will be King of Pennsylvania Counties!! And Clinton will be president.

  12. Hey Skedel, do you have any clue how a candidate wins PA? Trump will take most of PA’s 67 counties. But it doesn’t matter. Because the population centers are located in the SE and SW. Clinton has an overwhelming lead in the Philly metro. She’s also winning the Pittsburgh metro. Clinton only needs to win those metro counties to take the state.

  13. TRUMP will win PA no contest 67 county’s HILLARY gets 4 all the rest go for Trump in the last election OBAMA got 54 % of the vote HRC won’t come close She is not liked only in the imagination of the democratic pollsters, I haven’t seen this much excitement about a candidate in the last 40 Years you are going to be Shocked by the overwhelming Support for Donald J TRUMP

  14. No one wants Bill Clinton. This election is no longer about Hillary and Trump. It’s about keeping Bill far away from the White House.

  15. TRUMP will win Pa by 18 points I live here and know the 67 county’s HILLARY will win no more than 4 county’s The rest are Donald’s

  16. PA is not even close to being a toss-up for President. (It is a toss-up for Senate.)

    Real Clear Politics averages polls without regard to weighing them by the size of the sample or order they were taken. So, a +5 poll of 500 voters this week and a +3 poll of 300 voters last week gets averaged to +4

    FiveThirtyEight weighs the polls and even adjusts for historical bias. They have PA at 86% chance for Clinton and 54% chance for McGinty

    This shows you the weight and grading given to each pollster used:

    projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

  17. I don’t think PA is a toss-up, but if it creates urgency for Dems to get out and vote, it helps down-ballot candidates – and I’m all for that.

  18. no no no pay no attention to this. Clinton has the race locked up. big lead

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