Reuters and their polling firm Ipsos announced they would be doing a tracking poll of every state in the nation. This survey will include up to 16,000 likely voters and will be done online.
According to the 771 likely voters in Pennsylvania that Ipsos reached, Hillary Clinton has just a one point lead over Donald Trump, 46% to 45%.
On the surface this is great news for the Trump campaign. The previous six surveys (Suffolk, PPP, F&M, Susquehanna, Quinnipiac and NBC) have shown her Clinton by nine, four, ten, ten and eleven points respectively.
Nonetheless, despite the fact that Reuters and Ipsos are nonpartisan organizations and the highly-regarded site FiveThirtyEight has chosen to include the polls in their averages, there are some serious red flags about this poll.
For instance, several states that have favored Hillary Clinton this cycle (Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico) are described as too close to call. On the other hand, toss-up states like Ohio and Florida are categorized as “High Confidence Clinton”.
Other results make even less sense. For instance, Ipsos has Clinton ahead in Missouri yet Trump leading in Maine. A Democrat hasn’t won Missouri since 1996 and a Republican hasn’t taken Maine since 1988. If either candidate took the other it would indicate a landslide was likely for them. As a result, it doesn’t make sense that both results would occur at the same time.
This is likely because the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll is new and uses a unique online system. Time will tell whether their results shed new light on the presidential race or only add to the noise.