RMU Poll: Clinton and Bush Are Early 2016 Leaders

Hillary-ClintonHillary Clinton and Jeb Bush are the early presidential favorites among PA voters for 2016 according to a new RMU poll.

The Robert Morris University polling institute recently conducted a poll for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review which tested, among other things, which potential 2016 presidential candidate Pennsylvania Democrats and Republicans support.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds a large lead among the commonwealth’s Democrats with 66.5% of support. Vice President Joe Biden finishes a distant second place with 21.2%.

Despite all the recent controversy over Clinton’s actions in response to the terrorist attacks in Benghazi, her percentage actually slightly increased from the last time RMU asked this question in February, when she was at 65.7%. On the other hand, Biden saw his support drop nearly five points from his February total of 26%.

In the Republican primary, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush saw significant growth over the last three months climbing from 20.8% to 33.3% of support. According to RMU political scientist Philip Harold, most of these gains came at the expense of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

“The big story for national politics is the change in presidential candidate preferences for Pennsylvania Republican likely voters,” Harold said. “Jeb Bush saw the biggest gains, while Rand Paul was the only major candidate to lose support.”

Bush and Paul switched spots — Bush was the fourth preference of likely Pennsylvania Republican voters in February, and he jumped to first, Paul was in first and now has fallen to fourth,” he continued.

The Poll sampled opinions of 506 Pennsylvania residents statewide. The survey was conducted May 6-13, 2014. All surveys were conducted using an online survey instrument. The poll has a +/- 4.5 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level on a composite basis.

18 Responses

  1. I am thrilled to be hearing about the election candidates and who they could be. Bring on the election talk. I’m sad to say, I am so bored with Obama-snooze.

  2. David — I agree. I love Warren but I think she’s a needed voice in the Senate, like Sanders. Being a senator can be more powerful than being president. Presidents serve 4, maybe 8 years. Senators can serve for life. I don’t think anybody would deny that Ted Kennedy influenced American government more than Jimmy Carter. Moreover, Warren simply doesn’t have the foreign policy experience (yet) to be Commander-in-Chief. Maybe the Clintons are closer to Wall Street than some like, but Bill’s legacy is clear: the poverty rate dropped from 15% in 1993 to 11% in 2000, and income for the poorest 20% grew faster than the top 20%.

    jjcnpa — You are spot-on with your observations on other potential candidates. Although I have problems with Schweitzer too. He is pro-NRA (touted a personal endorsement from Wayne LaPierre a few years ago) and anti-Obamacare (said it would “collapse under its own weight”).

  3. The party doesn’t need to move left with an unwinnable Elizabeth Warren who really needs to work on getting that shakiness out of her voice and smile once in a while. Sanders running against Hillary would help Hillary because she would come across as mainstream (which she is but the right will portray her as a far left candidate and with Sanders in there it would be harder to do so). I question wny anyone would think O’Malley would be a good candidate after the disasterous roll-out of their MD state health care exchange especially when compared to Kentucky’s. Schweitzer is the most interesting candidate to go against Hillary but I think he may be gaffe-prone like Biden. Wthout Hillary we Dems are SOL. Too bad Jerry Brown isn’t 10 years younger. He would be my candidate. He has made great improvements to California after their run of bad governors.

  4. DelcoProgressive-

    I don’t the voters are smart enough to realize what someone like Warren could do and elect her. She certainly needs more nation exposure and track record in the Senate to build her reputation.

    But, the Warren supporters will back Hillary (even she’s not their ideal candidate).

    The Clinton’s are considered by many to be a little too cozy with Wall Street and unlikely to crack down on it hard enough. Warren (rightly) wants to see some of these bankers and executives in jail for their criminal behavior (financial crisis and beyond) and not just get slapped with some fines.

    But, Hillary is far and away better than anyone the GOP is offering up.

  5. Bruce — As much as we Democrats love people like Warren and Sanders, they simply don’t have a chance in a general election. 2016 polls are early and not necessarily predicative, but they show that Hillary is the only Democrat who will even keep 2016 competitive. I’m not interested in another McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis scenario.

    Funny that you call Hillary a one-percenter. So was FDR and look at all the good he did for low-income Americans. Moreover, you can’t ignore Hillary’s record on populist issues like SCHIP and raising the minimum wage. Just the other day she called income inequality “a cancer.” And let’s not forget the Wall Street Journal’s bemoaning her “class warfare.”

  6. It is a sad state of affairs when the Dems draw a foregone conclusion that Dinosaur Clinton is our only chance of winning. She may be the last chance of the 60+ crowd to relive their past glory of the last century but our nation’s working families need much much more that another corporate politician taking care of her and her friends interests of the 1% With Clinton on the ticket it will be a loss for our nation even if she can pull off a win.

  7. Not Ready-

    You are 100% incorrect about “Most of those “itchy” Hillary supporters happily abandoned her when The One came on the scene”

    There were actually A LOT of Hillary supporters who voted for her in the primary that didn’t even bother showing up in November because they were pissed about Obama not waiting his turn.

    Where would George W. have been if his dad hadn’t been President? (probably in jail for drugs or drunk driving)

    The voters of NY elected her for Senate, and she certainly had not only the academic credentials for the job but she had unique experience about how Washington worked behind the scene from her time in White House. She also had valuable experience traveling abroad as spokesperson for the US, meeting foreign dignitaries, and generating good will for the US while standing up for women’s rights around the world. And, she had popular positions on the issues of the day that voters liked.

    As Secretary of State, she showed she had the chops for one of the toughest jobs on the planet (and established even more relationships with foreign leaders and ambassadors that would serve her well as President).

    GOP really has a monopoly on new faces, yes. But really old and discredited ideas: Ayn Rand, rolling back civil rights and voting rights, holding down minimum wages, jumping into wars against non-Christian countries, exploiting natural resources without regard to safety or pollution.

    Elizabeth Warren is extremely popular with the Dem base. Hillary is viewed by some as a 1% -er, corporate sellout (though not the kind of total corporate whore the GOP the promotes).

    The Clinton name allowed MMM to be in the running and raise money. She would have been lucky to get on the ballot (let alone come in second) without it.

    With Hillary on the ballot, Dem registration, particularly among women is going to set new records.

  8. PA Xena — If you think it’s too early to start talking about 2016, just look at the Republicans. The House is creating yet another Benghazi investigation, and Rove is talking about brain damage. They know Hillary will run and win, and that’s why they’re starting attacks now. And “women don’t support her”? Are you nuts? A poll came out from ABC/Washington post yesterday showing 61% of all women (not just Democratic women) support her for president.

    Not Ready — You’re being foolish if you don’t think there isn’t a demand for Clinton. She is lining up big endorsements and big money, and she hasn’t even announced yet. I don’t see any “Ready for Biden” or “Ready for Christie” super PACs either.

    What has Hillary accomplished? As first lady of Arkansas, she launched HIPPY (Home Instruction for Parents of Preschool Youngsters) and led the task force to reformed the state’s education system. As First Lady of the US, she played a leading role in advocating the creation of SCHIP; created the Office on Violence Against Women in the DOJ; and of course pursued health care reform (even though she came up short). As a senator, she helped secure $21 billion for the World Trade Center’s redevelopment; worked to provide health care to 9/11 first responders; and cosponsored the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition. At the State Department, she restored our country’s badly damaged global reputation; introduced the QDDR report; launched several women and girls’ initiatives; promoted international public-private partnerships; demonstrated the success of “smart power” in Burma; and was the top advocate for the raid which led to Osama bin Laden’s death.

    You may not like her accomplishments, but she has them.

  9. DD: Please. Most of those “itchy” Hillary supporters happily abandoned her when The One came on the scene. What is she going to run on?

    Youknow, it’s funny, in another thread, another poster is going on and on about how Republicans fear strong women. What, exactly, has Hillary done? Where would she be without the “Clinton” surname? Would she have been able to be elected to Senate by New York? Would she have been Secretary of State? It’s a common refrain on the right, but one you Democrats better start coming up with answers for: What has Hillary ever accomplished ON HER OWN?

    Democrats love to talk about the stodgy old GOP with no new faces, yet the GOP really has a monopoly on new faces and ideas; the Democrats keep trotting out the same old retreads. If not Hillary, who? And please don’t say Elizabeth Warren; I’ve just recovered from my laughing fit earlier.

    In case you haven’t noticed, that Clinton surname isn’t as bright and shiny as it used to be. Just ask MMM. Hillary is actually going to have to have a platform.

  10. Not Ready-
    There are a lot of Hillary supporters who have been fidgeting on the sidelines since 2008 waiting for another chance to work on getting Hillary elected. They can’t wait for her to announce and make it official.

  11. Tribune Review got rid of Susquehanna Polling and Research as its pollster after its horrible poll results in 2012 (had all GOP candidates doing much better than they did or even winning in PA). Instead Tribune Review uses a polling group with little experience or reputation with Robert Morris. Being wrong and showing you’re not good at what you do is why pollsters don’t try to skew results to favor their clients, they will be fired and won’t be hired by other people.

  12. “Pent up demand for Clinton.”

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA! Oh my God! Stop! You’re killing me!

  13. Ed
    Marjorie relied upon name and no hard work.

    No other candidate is interested in running against her, and can raise that kind of cash.

    A lot of us prefer Elizabeth Warren, but she needs more time to build up and finish her senate term.

  14. I’m not so ready to see Clinton crowned again as the nominee. There are still other candidates out there who will campaign and make their pitch to voters. Martin O’Malley is one guy I’d like to see vetted against Clinton, to see where the race does go. Mark Warner is a potential candidate, and several others. And the Clinton name isn’t magic, like many think it is. Ask Marjorie if relying on their supposed magic is enough to beat hard work, like Brendan Boyle used to win in the PA 13th CD.

  15. One wonders if the Corbett folks have made the call to Jeb Bush or George P. Bush for that matter among other Republican leaders to come in and shore up his campaign?

    He’s gonna need all the help he can get, especially from early front runners and emerging leaders with national name recognition.

  16. PA Xena-

    Unlike Schwartz, Clinton is the actual front-runner. It’s a foregone conclusion that she has the nomination if she wants it.There is pent-up demand for her in PA from the 2008 primary.

  17. Who does a poll this early! Clinton will never win because even women don’t support her, she has done nothing for them!
    Why not poll whose going to win the the Oscars in 2020 it would be just as accurate and relevant!

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