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Robert Morris Poll: Wolf 51%, Schwartz 17%


According to an online survey done by Robert Morris University, former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf leads the Democratic pack for governor with 51%.

This is the first time that Wolf has crossed the majority threshold in the wide field for the Democratic nomination, although he did have dominating performances in three polls last week.

U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz came in second with 17%, State Treasurer Rob McCord at 13%,; and former DEP Secretary Katie McGinty took 9%.

Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz and former DEP Secretary John Hanger didn’t make the list, and former Auditor General Jack Wagner entered the field too late to be considered.

On the whole, this poll was bad news for everyone except Wolf.

Respondents gave sitting Governor Tom Corbett a 29.4% favorability rating and a 32.5% job approval rating. What’s worse: only 18.6% think that Corbett will win a second term.

The online poll surveyed 501 registered voters in Pennsylvania. Responses were weighted to reflect the overall population. It was held from Feb. 15-21, and has a 4.5 margin of error.

18 Responses

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  6. Of course wolfs numbers will come down he was on tv by himself for almost 6 weeks it appeared nobody was running but him.this race will be won with 24 to 25% of the vote.nobody can tell me rob mccord got 3% of the vote unless they called every non union household this race is just beginning.ine of these democrats will be the next governor.that i would bet on.

  7. This is not a scientific poll! John Hanger has far more support in my County than these apparently biased polls report. May 20th is the real poll. And no Democrat will receive 51% or 40% or 36%— Wolf”s numbers can only go down once the campaigns file their petitions and begin their campaigns in earnest. John Hanger’s People’s Campaign will shock the elites. We cannot allow big money to once again buy a gubernatorial election.

  8. John Hanger didn’t make the list? Who got the other 10%? The consistent and systemic bias towards big money candidates is disgusting.

  9. I just got reminded of a article about tom wolf when he said he was gonna run for governor in 2010 he said a candidate should not self fund himself if he has to that then he shouldn’t run.these politicians got short memory loss.

  10. @Frank

    David isn’t jumping ship. He is merely analyzing the race, like we all are. One of the reasons David and many of my other friends are for McCord is that he is playing “inside baseball”.

    McCord is trying to win the Guv race from inside the party and then move out. Anyone with a Harrisburg connection, like David and my other friends, is at least pro-McCord. The problem with this strategy is that it only will reach 15% of the primary voters and not all will “fall in line”.

    Wolf came in with millions of dollars of ads and won support of the electorate at large. The people on the street like Wolf. They are talking about him. He has a good story and possibly enough of a lead to win. But, we are 75 days out!

  11. Anon is going to have to describe the difference between a “poll” and a “survey” to me. Some polls are not scientific and I’ll bet some surveys ARE scientific. I don’t think we can just go by the name.

  12. Another poll reflecting on the outstanding nature of the primary voters in either party. The guy who has put the most propaganda on the air – by far – gets the most votes! I need to get that Bass-o-matic™ like yesterday!

  13. An online survey? So not a scientific poll? Meaningless. This shouldn’t be a story. Do a story about his high POLL numbers fine, but some online survey? What was the sample?

  14. @Frank, I don’t think @David is “jumping” anything. He is analyzing this as a professional who had worked in the field for a few years,without blinders obscuring his view. I’m not sure this is the most reliable poll, as it shows everyone’s % a bit higher by about the same amount, if you are looking for a raw % number, but the gaps between seem to have stayed consistent.

  15. Frank-
    I haven’t “jumped ship”. I’m still criticizing Schwartz campaign and predicting she will come in 3rd and that Rob will beat her. (I just don’t know who is going to come in 1st and 2nd.)

    I expect Rob to rally with ads in the closing weeks of the campaign, and bring to bear his union endorsements. Rob has a good story as well.

    However, beating Wolf is going to be tough, given his current lead, especially if the voters’ impressions of him solidify before Rob and the others can make their case.

    Besides advertising money and ground-game, two other factors loom: newspaper endorsements and voters watching the debates.

  16. Seems david is jumping ship it was mccord first .now its wolf because he leads in the polls. this election will change fast stick with mccord his numbers will surge when he goes on tv. im still betting on schwartz to win all. its all about area .no wagner in any of these polls taken he will take votes from the boys .

  17. Team Schwartz internal polls still show her in the lead. She’s 5 points ahead of Wolf among her staff. LOL. 🙂

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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