According to Roll Call Casey is the 10th most vulnerable Senator up for election this year. They do acknowledge that Casey is “one of the least vulnerable Democratic senators running in states Trump carried in 2016.”
“One of Trump’s early allies, GOP Rep. Lou Barletta, appears to be the likely nominee,” Roll Call says. Barletta’s connection to Trump remains to be one of the question marks in the race, if he can push the Trump vote out like in 2016, it might be enough to overcome one of the expected blue wave in the midterms.
Senators Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin), Jon Tester (D-Montana), Bill Nelson (D-Florida), Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia), Heidi Heitkamp (D-North Dakota), Joe Donnelly (D-Indiana), Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri), and Dean Heller (R-Nevada) ranked as more vulnerable.