Despite an essential coin flip to predict presidential elections in PA’s 7th District, which takes up part of the Philly suburbs, political analyst Stu Rothenberg of Roll Call has upgraded the reelection prospects for incumbent Republican Rep. Patrick Meehan from favored to safe.

Said Rothenberg, “If Democrats can uncover a stellar challenger, this could very well turn into a race. But the expensive Philadelphia media market makes it very difficult for a challenger to go from political unknown to top-tier candidate in a calendar year.”

The district is an essential ideological split when it comes to presidential elections. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 50 percent, Barack Obama won it in 2008 with 51 percent and George W. Bush won it in 2004 with 51 percent. But Meehan defeated his opponent George Badey by nearly twenty points after only his first term.

Rothenberg correctly predicted that Republicans would pick up between 55-65 seats in the House and 6-8 seats in the Senate in 2010.

Redistricting helped. GOP map-drawers switched PA-7 from a Cook partisan voting index of +3 Dem to +1 GOP, and from the relatively compact green territory to the sprawling light blue borders.