Sabato Classifies PA as “Lean Democratic” in 2016 Presidential Race

2016 May '15 Electoral MapSure we may be eighteen months away but that doesn’t mean we can’t look forward to the 2016 presidential electoral landscape.

Lucky for us, the people over at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have released their first electoral map of the season.

Pennsylvania is classified as “Lean Democratic”.

While generally considered a toss-up state, PA hasn’t voted for a Republican since George H.W. Bush defeated Mike Dukakis in 1988.

John McCain and Mitt Romney both fought hard to win the Keystone State in 2008 and 2012 but each lost to President Obama by a 54/44 and 52/47 margin respectively.

Overall, Sabato rates thirteen states (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington) and the District of Columbia as “Safe Democratic”. They represent 179 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, twenty states (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming and West Virginia) are rated “Safe Republican”. They represent 154 electoral votes.

Four states are rated “Likely Democratic” (Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon) and they contain 38 electoral votes. Three states, and 37 electoral votes, are labeled “Likely Republican” (Arizona, Georgia, Missouri).

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the two “Lean Democratic” states combining for 30 electoral votes. North Carolina, and its 15 electoral votes, is the only “Lean Republican” state.

Altogether, that leaves Democrats with a 247-206 advantage over the GOP in the electoral college.

Seven toss-up states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia) represent the decisive 85 electoral votes.

6 Responses

  1. This map – as I show – could have been, and was essentially, drawn before either party announced a single candidate. On December 22, 2014, I gave 196 Dem, 169 R, 173 votes up for grabs, no matter who runs in either party.

    Almost perfectly mirroring this map now that some candidates are known. No contradictions.

    If that doesn’t point to a #BrokenSystem – EC votes conceptually unchanged (although better defined) with candidates as without – I don’t know what would.

    George Will himself notes therein, that “…since 1992, a majority of states have not been “remotely competitive,” and that “almost two-thirds of the $896 million spent on television” by the two candidates in 2012 was spent in five states…”

    My blog also cites the detailed by oldgulph below.

  2. Actually, jmarshak I didn’t copy and paste from no where. I do not plagiarize! These are my own words backed up by real facts that I have learned on my own. I didn’t hear from the news or any pundit; I did my own research. I’m not someone who sits and watches Fox News, CNN or MSNBC all day. These are real truths that we live in today. Unlike what conservative propaganda will lead some to believe.

  3. If PA leaned any more Democratic for President it would topple to the left.

  4. Pennsylvania will go blue like it always has. None of the idiots in the GOP clown car will win because they are too extreme and their views alienate every voting group out there. I’m no fan of the Dems either but if you look at 2012, the GOP alienated so many voters that they lost a majority of women, they lost African-Americans, gays and minorities. They will do it again because they have went so far to the extreme right that they will never go to the center. All that comes out of their mouths are hate and bigotry.

  5. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) had only 5 general election campaign events in 2012.
    Ohio (18 electoral votes) 73 events,
    Florida (29 electoral votes) 40 events,
    Virginia (13 electoral votes) 36 events.

    The indefensible reality is that more than 99% of presidential campaign attention (ad spending and visits) was invested on voters in just ten states in 2012

    After being nominated, Obama visited just eight closely divided battleground states, and Romney visited only 10. These 10 states accounted for 98% of the $940 million spent on campaign advertising.They decided the election.

    Two-thirds (176 of 253) of the general-election campaign events, and a similar fraction of campaign expenditures, were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa).

    Presidential elections don’t have to continue to be like this.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election.

    No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes.

    The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of Electoral College votes—that is, enough to elect a President (270 of 538).
    The candidate receiving the most popular votes from all 50 states (and DC) would get all the 270+ electoral votes of the enacting states.

    The bill has passed 33 state legislative chambers in 22 rural, small, medium, large, Democratic, Republican and purple states with 250 electoral votes, including one house in Arkansas (6), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), and Oklahoma (7), and both houses in Colorado (9). The bill has been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

Comments are closed.

  • When Will PA House Agree On Rules?

    • After the Special House Elections (Feb 7) (92%)
    • End of the Month (Jan 31) (4%)
    • End of Next Week (Jan 27) (2%)
    • Early February (Feb 1-6) (2%)

    Total Voters: 152

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