Larry Sabato has released his Crystal Ball ratings for 2018 Governor races. He rated Pennsylvania as leans Democratic, giving Governor Tom Wolf the early advantage.
“We’ve mostly been giving incumbents the benefit of the doubt to start, so this contest begins at Leans Democratic,” Geoffrey Skelley and Kyle Kondik wrote in post.
Wolf broke the almost 60 year trend of the major parties switching the Governorship every eight years when he defeated then Governor Tom Corbett in 2014.
Wolf is the only Democratic Governor facing re-election in a state Trump won in 2016. Trump won Pennsylvania by .73%.
Sabato points out that Wolf’s “approval is only in the high 30s.”
According to Republican lobbyist Bruce Mehlman, Republicans are overextended nationally.
From Sabato:
Republicans will be defending nine governorships in states Clinton won — Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, and Vermont — while Democrats will be defending just one governorship in a Trump-won state (Pennsylvania).
Nationally, three states lean Democratic, two states are likely Democratic, two states are safe Democratic, ten states are toss-ups, seven states lean Republican, four states are likely Republican, and nine are safe Republican.
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8 Responses
“Sabato over-rates him.” I meant Wolf.
Wagner is likely to be wolfsbane next year. Sabato over-rates him.
Sabato’s crystal ball has become a bit clouded lately. Part of it may be due to the fact that he and other pundits took a hit last year. A related reason is that many political analysts are find it hard to free themselves of pre-Trump thinking. We have had a major change in politics with last year’s election, and it is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Time to seriously check out and revise as necessary older analytical models.
Wolf goes down!!! The FBI is looking into his dealings with Johnny Doc and Ryan Boyer on the DRPA. Wagner wins by a landslide. People warned Wolf to stay away. Also Philly and Pittsburgh don’t like Wolf. He gave them no street money for election day. Your not to smart as a business man.
Gulags arrogance is the democrats problem in a nutshell.
Quite right, Mary Ellen. Problem is, in Pennsylvania politics you have to go a long way sometimes to find “good honest people”. And then you have to persuade them to work for you. That’s harder than the previous step, especially if you want them to remain honest working in politics.
Wolfpack better watch who they have steering the Campaign. If it’s anything like Hillary’s campaign, no ground game and a bunch of party people running the show – Wolf will lose. He needs to surround himself with good honest people, who don’t lie to your face and screw you behind your back –
If you predict that incumbents will win reelection you are going to be right something like 90% of the time with zero research.
By next year all States will be lean Democrat, or at least anti-Trump. Stupid can only be popular so long , until even dull people catch on to the con.