Sabato shifted its outlook of the Gubernatorial election from ‘lean Democratic’ to ‘likely Democratic.’
The shift is partially because of Wolf’s increased approval in the state since he first took office.
“About one year into his governorship (February 2016), the Franklin & Marshall College Poll found that only 31% of Pennsylvanians thought Wolf was doing an excellent or good job. Since then, however, his numbers have improved, and the most recent poll from late March found 43% of respondents believed Wolf was doing an excellent or good job,” Sabato wrote.
Sabato also points to the Republican primary where the two frontrunner, state Sen. Scott Wagner and businessman Paul Mango, have spent millions of dollars on ads “defining the opposition as insufficiently conservative.”
Wolf’s $14.7 million on hand and no primary challenger also gives him an advantage over the GOP.
“Wolf just announced that he ended the first quarter of 2018 with $14.7 million cash-on-hand, and he has no opponent in the May 15 primary. Moreover, should Wolf feel threatened by his eventual opponent’s war chest, he could dip into his own pocket. After all, Wolf spent about $10 million out of his own bank account in his victorious 2014 campaign,” Sabato said.