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Sabato Shifts Governor Race to ‘Likely Democratic’

Governor Tom Wolf’s re-election chances are looking better after the first quarter of 2018, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.  

Sabato shifted its outlook of the Gubernatorial election from ‘lean Democratic’ to ‘likely Democratic.’  

The shift is partially because of Wolf’s increased approval in the state since he first took office.

“About one year into his governorship (February 2016), the Franklin & Marshall College Poll found that only 31% of Pennsylvanians thought Wolf was doing an excellent or good job. Since then, however, his numbers have improved, and the most recent poll from late March found 43% of respondents believed Wolf was doing an excellent or good job,” Sabato wrote.  

Sabato also points to the Republican primary where the two frontrunner, state Sen. Scott Wagner and businessman Paul Mango, have spent millions of dollars on ads “defining the opposition as insufficiently conservative.”

Wolf’s $14.7 million on hand and no primary challenger also gives him an advantage over the GOP.  

“Wolf just announced that he ended the first quarter of 2018 with $14.7 million cash-on-hand, and he has no opponent in the May 15 primary. Moreover, should Wolf feel threatened by his eventual opponent’s war chest, he could dip into his own pocket. After all, Wolf spent about $10 million out of his own bank account in his victorious 2014 campaign,” Sabato said.

12 Responses

  1. and wolf is a multi millionaire who still drives his jeep. he gets my vote just for that.

  2. Reminder: Tom Wolf was always a genuine guy, and a great person. We have a talented governor and one of the smartest men in politics. What a resume:

    He attended Dartmouth College, joined the Peace Corps, and later graduated in 1972. Giving of himself to others.

    Next, he went on to earn his master’s degree in philosophy from the University of London in 1978. Well rounded, traveled, and a deep thinker.

    He obtained his doctorate degree in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1981. One of the most challenging universities in this country.

    Big time accomplishments. A caring person. A dedicated public servant.
    We should be proud, and thankful.

  3. Wolf has my vote 2018 regardless. Glad our Commonwealth is maintaining Common sense in the dark age of Trump. Wolf Pack 2018!

  4. Let’s be honest. The Republican Party has probably the worst two candidates they have ever placed in contention of the ballot for Governor. This is not only evident to Sabato it is an obvious reality for the casual observer. Only the two biggest doofuses in politics Wagner and Mango could possibly battle in a Dem wave year for who is the most conservative! These two guys although multimillionaires have apparently not gained the same level of intelligence in politics. This is really similar to the Ivan Itkin and Tom Ridge race in the 1990’s except this time the Dems have got the much stronger candidate and the R’s the weaker candidates. After the November election, the R’s will need to seek out a Ridge style candidate who has crossover appeal to Dems because these two geniuses–Wagner & Mango–definately are not wide spectrum appeal folks.

  5. It’s a Dem wave year, and the GOP has sh*t candidates. Of course Wolf is going to win.

  6. Perspective, please. It’s Larry Sabato, fergoshsakes! Sabato is the same guy who had Hillary winning going away. The only poll that counts is the one in which voters cast ballots.

    1. The only problem with your theory is people aren’t embarrassed to tell pollsters who they’re really voting for in this race. In 2016, Trump voters lied about who they were voting for which did throw the numbers off quite a bit. I doubt people are doing the same in this race. Polling will be pretty accurate.

  7. Good choice Tom to run for reelection, maybe I will support you, but maybe not because maybe I will support that guy Scott or Paul or that other dude maybe.

  8. This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. My party is going to nominate either Beavis or Butthead, currently competing to see which is more conservative. Wolf by 10.

  9. Wolf’s report on the Dept. of State shows a lot of small dollar donors. He’s gonna win in a landslide

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