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Sabato Updates Rating for PA-18 Special Election, Rothfus’ New Seat

Two Republican seats in Pennsylvania, including one that won’t exist after March 13th, have been shifted towards Democrats.  

Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its rating for the special election in the 18th district and Congressman Keith Rothfus’ new 17th district from ‘lean Republican’ to ‘toss up.’

One the main reasons for the shift in the rating for the 18th district is Republican Rick Saccone’s low fundraising totals compared with Democrat Conor Lamb’s fundraising efforts.  

“[F]ormer federal prosecutor Conor Lamb (D) has run a stronger campaign than state Rep. Rick Saccone (R). One way to measure that is fundraising: Lamb has raised $3.9 million while Saccone’s tally is only about $920,000,” Sabato reports.  

The redraw of the state’s Congressional districts means that Lamb would live in the newly drawn 17th district, which Rothfus now lives in.

While Lamb would not be required to run in the 17th, you don’t have to live within the district you run in, his possible candidacy raises some interesting prospects for Democrats.  

“Lamb appears likely to run in the new PA-17 against Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) whether he wins or loses on Tuesday. In anticipation of that possibility, we’re moving PA-17 from Leans Republican to Toss-up — Trump won the new district by less than three points, and Lamb represents a formidable challenger to Rothfus whether he is a sitting incumbent or not,” Sabato writes.

8 Responses

  1. Rothfus has proven to be a coward who would rather lock his office door against his constituents’s entry than talk with them . good riddance. i’d be surprised if he and his staff are not violating the hatch at as we speak in order to try to keep himself in office.

  2. The special election is meaningless, it’s the general stupid. Conor may have a primary challenge and will be broke 3/14. The new district is still 55% of Keith’s old one.
    Wouldn’t be predicting 3 elections this early.

  3. Even if you exclude Lamb’s out-of-state contributions, he’s still destroying Saccone’s total fundraising. That’s impressive.

    Rothfus is a tea partier, through and through, and their moment has passed. After getting elected on a message that the sky was falling and the United States was soon heading the way of Greece, his vote on the Republican tax giveaway to the ultra-rich revealed himself for the charlatan that he is.

  4. Rothfus could possibly be the worst of the 435. A do-nothing rubber stamp for the wacko right. Lamb would crush him.

  5. I think for Conor Lamb could win a upset in the special election, and for Conor will win the possible member vs member battle against Keith Rothfus in 2018.

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