Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its rating of two of Pennsylvania’s southeastern Congressional races for next year.
Sabato moved Pa-6, which is represented by Congressman Ryan Costello (R-Chester), and Pa-7, which is represented by Congressman Pat Meehan (R-Delaware) from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘leans Republican.’
The shift notes that both Costello and Meehan have at least one Democratic challenger in the race already. In both of the districts, President Trump’s results in 2016 ran behind Mitt Romney’s results in 2012.
“In Pennsylvania, PA-6 and PA-7 may be more competitive next year than Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R, PA-8) district, which seemed to be more of a swing seat when Republicans drew it following the 2010 census. As of now, Fitzpatrick, a freshman who replaced his retired brother last fall, does not have a clear Democratic challenger,” the post noted, explaining why it did not shift Fitzpatrick’s Bucks County centered district.
The shift will likely be used by the Democratic challengers to show they are shifting the narrative in their favor. With 16 months between now and the general election, the rating is likely to shift multiple times.
Nationally, Democrats have seen a surge in candidates jumping into races. Already, Democrats have had more candidates enter races and raise at least $5,000 than have done the same in each of the last at this point combined.
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18 Responses
PA only looks better on paper. In reality Costello is a perfect fit for the district and a lot of Rs would have to switch for Dems to win. Meehan is so safe even a good well financed D candidate cannot win that district. The Ds could win the 8th but they don’t have a candidate yet.
Agreed. I think that Costello’s race will be closer than it has been in the past, but something doesn’t seem right with his opponent, I feel like she is hiding something. Meehan is safe as long as some ultra-candidate comes out of the woodwork from now until the primary. Otherwise, looking at who is announced in that race, he is safe to the tune of a 58-42 split at best.
“Already, Democrats have had more candidates enter races and raise at least $5,000 than have done the same in each of the last at this point combined.”
That seems like enough money to take on Meehan’s $2M cash on hand (a/k/a the leftovers from all of the weak contests that he’s won over the past 8 years) once they get through their divisive primary.
What is it like 468 days until election 2018? LOL. Oh no, a bunch of fidget spinners stuck in a room together in Virginia think that these two races in PA just got a little closer! Trump was -12 going into election day too right? These experts need to sit on their hands.
In the 12th, now that Smokin’ Erin and her little fidget Pascal the rascal have been beat off…except for my cousin Stevie junior junior who is still a believer and loves her madly, Doofus Rufus is ripe fo a pickin. La familia is all in with him but he still can’t get off the turnpike without our help. With Gabriel’s Trumpet blaring nonsense from the mountains to the prairie, he could be toast. We should hedge our bet.
Wut.
“Smokin’ Erin” would get my vote.
She would get my vote and then some… She would be the hottest congresswoman since Tulsi Gabbard. Without the surfboard…
I don’t get the PA-6 move. The Democratic challengers are very weak. PA-7 is arguably more competitive because at least Leach is a stronger campaigner even if he is more ideologically to the left of the seat than Meehan is to the right.
There is no doubt Daylin Leach will give Meehan a run for his money. He is a powerful speaker with a record of fighting for middle-class and working families. He is principled, authentic, the real deal.
But Ryan is wrong about the 6th District. There are two strong candidates – one declared and the other about to. Each has strong credentials and knows what it will take to beat a back bencher whose highest priority is to avoid taking a position on anything and thread the needle to get re-elected. Costello has explained away his no-shows at town halls as a matter of his personal safety. There’s a word for that…
Who is the other candidate from the 6th? Bob Detorre?
The Bob Detorre? Well that will change everything!
Wait, who’s Bob Detorre?
He is your real dad.
Ryan-
The 7th is not arguably competitive.
You hare Sestak. What’s your problem with Daylin?
We miss Malibu Brian here in Cali. We too have an 8th district too in Cali. It isn’t at the beach, but we welcome Malibu Brian back to his true home.
My Crystal Ball moves the 7th from “leans Republican” to “topples over Republican”.
You are a fn moron.