Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Cartwright and Wild Races Shift From Leans Dem to Likely Dem

Two closely watched congressional races in Pennsylvania have moved further into the Democratic incumbents favor, according to the latest ratings from the analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) reelection bids have both shifted from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in the ratings update on Thursday morning. Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman write that while both GOP candidates, Jim Bognet in the 8th District and Lisa Scheller in the 7th District, are “competent GOP challengers” that “key Republican outside groups do not appear likely to spend big outside dollars” in the races, which is a sign that the incumbents are in “decent shape for the stretch run.” 

The analysis also included maps of both districts showing that although Trump performed well in both the 7th and 8th District in 2016 that Democrats had strong performances in the 2018 midterms. 

Coleman and Kondik continue to cite a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released last week that showed Wild leading Scheller by 13 points, 52%-to-39%. Although there’s no public polling of the race in the “neighboring and Trumpier” PA8, Coleman and Kondik write that their understanding is that Cartwright is “doing well, and Biden could even do well enough to flip the district,” which includes Scranton. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also recently canceled TV ad spending in the district, which they point to as a “sign of confidence” in Cartwright’s reelection chances. Coleman and Kondik add that the region “may not be as hospitable to Trump” as it was during the previous presidential election. 

Cartwright is currently serving his fourth term in Congress, most recently besting Republican John Chrin by just over 9 points. In 2016, Trump carried these boundaries by close to 10 points, while Cartwright fended off Republican Matt Connolly by a 7.6 point margin.

Wild is serving her first full term in Congress after defeating Republican Marty Nothstein by 10 points for the open seat in the Lehigh Valley. She also defeated Nothstein by a razor thin margin in the special election to represent the old 15th District, which was vacated by Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Lehigh), giving her a head start in Congress over many of her incoming freshman colleagues. 

On Election Day 2018, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Cartwright’s reelection bid for the 8th District as Likely Democratic, while Wild’s race for the open seat in the 7th District was rated as Leans Democratic. 

After this latest ratings change, the two closest races in the state from Sabato’s Crystal Ball are in the 1st and 10th District. Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid in the 10th District is rated as a Toss-Up, while Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Bucks) reelection is listed in the Leans Republican column.

See the full ratings update here.

10 Responses

  1. The Democrats can send thank you cards Lou Barletta for pushing Jim Bognet to be the R nominee when Bognet didn’t stand a chance in the general election. Daniels or Granville would have won the whole thing given popularity in Lackawanna. Whew. Good thing old guard weighed in and messed this one up! Cartwright prevails again.
    Maybe Bognet can run Barletta’s Gov campaign. That’ll be a loser too.

    1. Don’t forget Solano! That old sly fox protected his buddy Cartwright by supporting the weak candidate Bognet in the primary. They don’t make em like that anymore! Thanks Pat!

  2. Lisa Scheller is turning out to be the new Marty Nothstein – another terrible GOP candidate. Can’t we find anyone good to take on Susan Wild?

  3. Cartwright losing Scranton with Biden being born in the town and leading by 12 points in PA is highly unlikely. Of course, Cartwright won’t say that but its obvious.

  4. Is the Lawrence County DA investigating child abuser GOP State Rep Aaron Bernstine?

    In one video obtained by the USA TODAY Network, Aaron Bernstine, R-10, New Beaver, Lawrence County, is behind the camera, but his hand is shown holding a cigar and offering it to his son.

    When the young boy takes a puff, Bernstine tells him to “hit it harder” and “breathe in,” followed by a woman’s voice saying, “No.”

    A second video has Bernstine again off camera asking his son, “What are we going to chase in Nashville?” The boy replies in a whisper, “Cadillac p—-,” using a vulgar term for vagina.

  5. Trump is losing his mind. No surprise as it is so small, so easy to be overlooked.

    1. How much of a fucking loser do you have to be to comment on every single politics pa article? Don’t you have anything better to do with your life then bitch about “Orange Man Bad”? You liberal keyboard warriors won’t last a minute when the Civil War starts.

      p.s. Go fuck yourself

      1. Healthy, stable people who care about this country, our Constitution, and American values like Rule of Law don’t fantasize about murdering their political opponents. I say this as a responsible gun owner, you are the poster child for red flag laws.

        Get help.

  6. I will blow whichever Republican Candidate has the most money in the primary.

    p.s. I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016

Comments are closed.

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