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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Fitzpatrick Races Shifts From Leans Republican to Likely Republican

Another ratings outlet is moving the race further into the Bucks County Republican’s favor. 

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Bucks) race in the 1st Congressional District has moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican, according to the most recent ratings from the election analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik points to Fitzpatrick’s competition on the Democratic side coupled with his “enormous” fundraising advantage as the reason for this rating change. 

“Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) occupies a very competitive, Hillary Clinton-won district in Bucks County, a battleground area in Greater Philadelphia,” Kondik writes. “But he lacks a credible opponent and has an enormous fundraising edge, so he moves from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.”

Christina Finello, an Ivyland Borough Councilwoman who has been endorsed by the Bucks County Democratic Party, and Skylar Hurwitz, a technology entrepreneur and small business owner who has been endorsed by Our Revolution Pennsylvania, are the two Democrats vying for the party nomination. However, Fitzpatrick is still set to face another pro-Trump Republican in the upcoming GOP primary in financial advisor Andrew Meehan.

Fitzpatrick, who is currently serving his second term in Congress in a district that narrowly went to Sec. Hillary Clinton in 2016, bested Democrat Scott Wallace by just over 2.5 points in 2018. 

This is the second rating change in Fitzpatrick’s favor from this ratings outlet since February, when they moved the race from Toss-Up to Leans Republican

With Fitzpatrick’s race moving into the Likely Republican category, the three closest Congressional races in the state are the reelection bids for Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Scott Perry (R-York), and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh). Cartwright and Wild’s races are both Leans Democratic, while Perry’s race is Leans Republican. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball isn’t the only ratings outlet to change the rating in Fitzpatrick’s favor this week. Politico’s 2020 Forecast also changed Fitzpatrick’s race in the 1st District from Toss-Up to Leans Republican, citing similar reasons. 

The presidential race in Pennsylvania is still listed as a Toss-Up for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. 

See the full ratings changes here.

3 Responses

  1. It is interesting to see how Scott Perry is being abandoned by the GOP contrasted by Fitzpatrick. I think both are toast in November but the difference in support is interesting.

  2. Again, Fitzpatrick is out of step with the Democratic base that is growing in Bucks County. He will lose.

  3. Shouldn’t you wait for the candidates to be chosen before picking a likely winner?

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