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Sabato’s Crystal Ball Initial 2022 Senate Ratings Lists PA As A Toss-Up

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s initial 2022 Senate ratings only lists one race as a Toss-up. That Senate race is in Pennsylvania. 

“Democrats’ clearest path to gaining seats runs primarily through the Rust Belt, as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem to be their top offensive races, though they may finally get lucky in North Carolina,” writes J. Miles Coleman. 

Sen. Pat Toomey, who Coleman describes as a “reformist conservative with an interest in fiscal issues,” who has advocated for term limits, announced in October 2020 that he would not seek a third term. 

The article continues to detail the Democratic race that immediately began after Toomey’s retirement announcement and cites Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester) as possible candidates considering a Senate run and broke down the regional battle that would ensue if they were the lone candidates in the primary. Coleman also added that Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) and Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) “could get tougher districts for 2022 — something that could push them to run statewide.”

On the GOP side, Coleman writes that “any number” of Republicans could run, but only specifically mentioned former Congressman Ryan Costello (R-Chester) by name as a possible candidate, although added that his “biggest obstacle” would be the declining numbers of registered Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs. 

“Either way, as the sole Biden-won state to feature an open seat Senate contest (at least for now), Pennsylvania seems like Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity,” Coleman writes. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s final 2018 ratings listed the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Luzerne) as “Safe Democratic.” In 2016, Sabato’s final ratings listed GOP Sen. Pat Toomey’s reelection bid against Democratic challenger Katie McGinty as “Leans Democratic.”

See Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s full 2022 initial ratings here.

12 Responses

  1. Please, Democrats, stop with the hostile, toxic, white, male, patriarchy. The Democrats of today should only be selecting women of color as statewide candidates. White males should not be allowed to apply for these positions in the Democratic Party anymore.

  2. I’d like to see congressman Conor Lamb run for this seat. He’s been very effective as a problem solver and collaborator at the Federal level. If he doesn’t run the LG Fetterman would be a good candidate for the Dems.

  3. Congressperson Houlahan was part of the cabal along with Kirsten Gillibrand that ousted Al Franken.
    Gillibrand did not go far and neither will Houlihan.
    We will never forget.

  4. PoliticsPA will continue to let parasites like fake truth steal user names and post bullshit masquerading as someone else.

    1. PoliticsPA will continue to let parasites steal user names and post bullshit masquerading as someone else.

  5. I think the money Fetterman is raising makes it very hard for challengers unless they are going to self fund and I’m not seeing anyone on the Dem side doing that so advantage Fetterman. Money is really important in politics and good people like Sen John McCain and Sen Russ Feingold tried to control fundraising but Citizens United Supreme Court case ended all that and so now it is a free for all. Dems are not surrendering the PA 8th to the doofus, Bognet, who ran on the Republican side in 2020. Cartwright will run again in 2022 for Congress. Dems have Governorship so Republican pretzel districts will not happen in redistricting.

    1. I don’t think LG Fetterman has it locked up at all. We need a woman or a person of color to represent the Democrats. White men like LG Fetterman should recognize that and step aside. What about CongressWOMAN Houlahan?

  6. Dems need to mend fences and get organized before Trump/GOP stages a comeback/counterattack on democracy.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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