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Sabato’s Crystal Ball Labels 2022 PA Governor’s Race As A Toss-Up In Initial Ratings

The Senate race isn’t the only Toss-Up in the Keystone State in 2022, according to this national ratings outlet. 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates Pennsylvania’s Governor’s race in 2022 as a Toss-Up in their initial ratings for the cycle. 

Pennsylvania is one of five states included in the Toss-Up category. J. Miles Coleman notes that “not coincidentally” four of the states included in this column – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, gave President Joe Biden a narrow victory in 2020. 

Coleman’s analysis continues by citing the recent history of Pennsylvania’s statewide races. In 2016, despite President Donald Trump winning the state, all three Democrats won the three statewide row offices. In 2020, despite President Joe Biden besting Trump, Republicans flipped the auditor and treasurer posts. 

Only one 2022 hopeful is mentioned in the rating – Attorney General Josh Shapiro. 

Coleman writes that Shapiro’s interest in the governorship has been a “poorly kept secret” in Pennsylvania politics. 

“The Republican side is more open,” Coleman adds.

The analysis ends with noting some more history for Pennsylvania statewide races. 

“Pennsylvania is unique this year in that it has open contests for both Senate and governor, so candidates may take some time to settle on which campaign seems more promising,” Coleman writes. “Until Wolf’s 2014 victory, one rhythm was constant in state politics: beginning in 1954, Pennsylvania voters would put one party in control of the statehouse for two terms, then choose the other party for two terms. Could 2022 mark a return to form?”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball is just the latest national ratings outlet to place Pennsylvania’s Governor’s race in a category that shows the office is up for grabs in 2022. 

The Cook Political Report rated Pennsylvania’s Governor’s race as a Toss-Up in its initial ratings, while Inside Elections labels PA’s race under it’s “battleground” category.  

Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s final 2018 ratings listed the Governor’s race between Gov. Tom Wolf (D) and GOP state Sen. Scott Wagner as “Safe Democratic.” In 2014, Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s final ratings placed the race between Gov. Tom Corbett (R) and Democratic challenger Tom Wolf as “Safe Democratic.” 

See Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s full 2022 initial Governor’s ratings here.

10 Responses

    1. Pfffft.

      Because he is a Trumper and Trump lost the state? He would be perfect for Shapiro.

      Hes not electable statewide.

      1. Shapiro orchestrated the ‘Pennsylvania Steal’. He’s a liar, thief and Leftist pawn. He should not even be ALLOWED to run. His political career ended when he rigged the election.

  1. Tabas-do the Rs a favor. Don’t have an ugly primary for Gov and repeat the last fiasco. Go in a back room, agree to the candidate and get all others out of the race. Draw straws. Whatever you gotta do. It’s hard enough to beat Shapiro. A Gov primary guarantees a D victory

    1. And don’t pick a candidate who is not electable statewide. Get someone who is moderate.

      Jimmy Cawley or someone like him.

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