Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves PA From “Likely Dem” to “Lean Dem”

sabato-map-septemberAfter a rough patch for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump’s odds have improved across the board.

Among the changes in the latest Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings is the move of Pennsylvania from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic”.

In their September map, Clinton retains a bare majority of 272 electoral votes while Trump has 215. 51 electoral votes are rated as toss-ups. While the Democratic nominee would still prevail even without winning a single toss-up state, this is a steep decline from her advantage in August.

Last month, Clinton had a 347-191 lead in the electoral college with no toss-ups.


There was also a shift in the categorization of Pennsylvania’s Senate race.

sabato-senate-septThe Toomey-McGinty contest went from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up”.

“Right before Labor Day — when Clinton still appeared to be on the path to a comfortable, Obama-style national win — we shifted some Senate races toward the Democrats, thinking that Trump would end up sinking Sens. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH),” Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley wrote.

“But with national polls very tight, Ayotte and Toomey find themselves in a better position because they’ve both demonstrated the ability to run ahead of Trump in the polls. If Trump wins either New Hampshire or Pennsylvania, it probably means he will be president — and that would almost certainly mean that Ayotte and/or Toomey would be winning as well. If Trump falls off — certainly possible — then Ayotte and Toomey could go back to being underdogs. But in a close national race that is also close in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, Ayotte and Toomey could definitely still hang on. So we’re moving both from Leans Democratic back to Toss-up.”

6 Responses

  1. I think they will be counting the Senate race into the wee hours of Wedneday. Hillary beats Trump by about 5 points and that is the dividing line for Toomey. These polls showing Hillary with a huge lead in PA are wrong or all the national polls are wrong. 5 points sounds about right based on the national polling and it’s why Sabato has changed his rating. The Senate race will be very close.

  2. Someone is going to have to raise taxes to address the deficit and stop fighting ME wars on borrowed money.

  3. I’m pretty sure Tim is another parody account. Otherwise, he’s a stunning and frank example of an outdated mindset and quickly (though not quickly enough!) shrinking minority of Americans who are frustrated that their casual bigotry used to be the norm but is now taboo. He’s a living dinosaur whose grandchildren will, in all likelihood, look back on him in embarrassment, perhaps offering a half-hearted apologia of “it was a different time”, knowing deep down that 2016 was not 1966 and he really had no excuse for his abysmal and unchristian behavior.

  4. Tim-

    It’s so funny to the rest of us that you have no idea that you are drowning in Trump’s Kool-aid.

  5. A Tectonic shift is underway in the keystone state as kool-aid drinking dems are fleeing sickly Hillary in order to back a man for our times, namely, Donald J Trump. Sick of the ever increasing taxes, a mounting federal deficit, a doubling of their obamacare premiums and the prosepect of listening to hear Lying, Crooked Hillary drone on and on for the next 4 years is enough to curdle anybody’s milk! A hero has risen!

  • Will Doug Mastriano Run For U.S. Senate?

    • No. Not Enough Support From Mainstream GOP. (91%)
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