Sabato’s Crystal Ball: PA Remains A Toss-Up for General Election
Pennsylvania remains up for grabs in the presidential election according to the most recent ratings update from the election analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
In an article published on April 2, Sabato’s Crystal Ball kept Pennsylvania as one of four states in the Toss-Up column for the general election, which is the same rating as their previous rankings.
Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes make it the state with the highest amount of electoral votes placed in this column. Other states included in the category are North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District’s 1 electoral vote.
One of the “key points” listed in the article was that their presidential outlook has not “dramatically revised” from their previous ratings.
Neither party has the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House making the overall presidential race as a Toss-Up, although Kyle Kondik writes that Democrats are “nominally ahead now.”
Democrats have 248 electoral votes in their Electoral College tally, while Republicans have 233 electoral votes, and 57 electoral votes in the Toss-Up category.
On Election Day 2016, Pennsylvania was listed as Leans Democrat for the presidential race between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
While the presidential race is currently listed as a Toss-Up, none of the Congressional races in the state are placed in the same category. The four closest Congressional matchups in the state are for Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks), Scott Perry (R-York), and Susan Wild’s (D-Lehigh) reelection bids with all of them in the “Leans” category to earn another term in office.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is not alone in characterizing Pennsylvania as a Toss-Up for the general election. The Cook Political Report’s most recent article on the presidential ratings published on March 23 had Pennsylvania as one of six states listed as Toss-Ups for the general election.