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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Perry’s Race Moves From Leans GOP To Toss-Up

The race in the 10th Congressional District is now a Toss-Up, according to the latest ratings from the election analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District has moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up in the ratings update on Thursday morning. Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik described Dem candidate Eugene DePasquale, the state’s Auditor General, as a “strong Democratic challenger” and pointed to the district possibly trending Democratic at the presidential level in November, while likening the race to Rep. Steve Chabot’s (R-OH) reelection bid in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District. 

“Biden also will hope to make gains in the Harrisburg/York-centered PA-10, where Rep. Scott Perry (R) faces state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D),” Kondik writes. “Trump won PA-10 by about nine points, but Perry only narrowly hung on in the redrawn district in 2018 against a less heralded challenger than DePasquale.”

Perry, who is serving in his four term in Congress, edged out Democrat George Scott by just over 2.5 points in 2018 in the newly drawn district with boundaries that voted for President Donald Trump by just under 10 points in 2016. Perry’s latest bid was his closest victory since being voted into Congress in 2012 in the old conservative 4th District.

The race in PA10 is the lone congressional race in the state listed as a Toss-Up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, while the presidential race in the state is listed as Leans Democratic. In August 2019, the Cook Political Report moved Perry’s race from Leans Republican to Toss-Up, where it remains today. Inside Elections lists the race in PA10 as Tilt Republican.

On Election Day 2018, Sabato’s Crystal Ball had Perry’s race listed as “Leans Republican.”

See the full ratings here.

9 Responses

        1. Gulag- Is Stack part of that, too?

          You are pretty sparky with your broad generalizations regarding a group of people for someone who is so publicly wrong.

  1. It all boils down to the Biden factor. Can he get a hometown bump? Can he drive up the numbers with Harris on the ticket? Will the suburbs come through? Will Philly generate bigger than usual numbers? Biden gets a bump and he lifts all down ballot candidates. Sabato’s Crystal numbers are always reliable. He is not perfect but he does not make dumb mistakes so there is a confidence level with his work,

  2. Perry just made a huge mistake yesterday by saying that systemic racism doesn’t exist. He has been quiet but now has removed all doubts about the racist that he is.

    Or if he isn’t racist, he is a coward who parrots Donald Trump and GOP racist talking points to get re-elected.

    1. Former GOPer – Scott Perry is most definitely a racist, just like his mentors, Jim “Sandusky” Jordan and COS Mark Meadows.

    2. Whatever it was, it was not a ‘mistake’. it was a deliberate act of racebaiting coming just one day after similarly starkly black vs white racebaiting facebook comments by Cumberland County D.A. Skip Ebert. There is no way those two statements are not coordinated. Perry, especially, dutifully and unironically parrots his talking points from the so-called ‘freedom’ caucus. This seems to simply be a line Central PA GOP has decided to draw in hopes of using fear to drive enough non-college educated white voter to the polls in November. Keep in mind also that a central figure in this effort, Greg ‘Santorum’s Butler’ Rothman has previously plead guilty to election related mail fraud. Quite a crew of ‘patriots’.

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