The race in the 10th Congressional District is now a Toss-Up, according to the latest ratings from the election analysts at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District has moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up in the ratings update on Thursday morning. Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik described Dem candidate Eugene DePasquale, the state’s Auditor General, as a “strong Democratic challenger” and pointed to the district possibly trending Democratic at the presidential level in November, while likening the race to Rep. Steve Chabot’s (R-OH) reelection bid in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District.
“Biden also will hope to make gains in the Harrisburg/York-centered PA-10, where Rep. Scott Perry (R) faces state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D),” Kondik writes. “Trump won PA-10 by about nine points, but Perry only narrowly hung on in the redrawn district in 2018 against a less heralded challenger than DePasquale.”
Perry, who is serving in his four term in Congress, edged out Democrat George Scott by just over 2.5 points in 2018 in the newly drawn district with boundaries that voted for President Donald Trump by just under 10 points in 2016. Perry’s latest bid was his closest victory since being voted into Congress in 2012 in the old conservative 4th District.
The race in PA10 is the lone congressional race in the state listed as a Toss-Up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, while the presidential race in the state is listed as Leans Democratic. In August 2019, the Cook Political Report moved Perry’s race from Leans Republican to Toss-Up, where it remains today. Inside Elections lists the race in PA10 as Tilt Republican.
On Election Day 2018, Sabato’s Crystal Ball had Perry’s race listed as “Leans Republican.”
See the full ratings here.