Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts PA Rating From “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”

sabato-map-octoberPA is now a deeper shade of blue.

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley of Sabato’s Crystal Ball are moving Pennsylvania from “Leans Democratic to “Likely Democratic”.

“We’re also going from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Clinton now seems to have reasserted herself after some tightening before the first debate,” they write. “That’s particularly true in the Keystone State, where her lead in polling averages right now is bigger than the 5.5 point margin of victory Obama enjoyed there in 2012. These states ended up being bridges too far for even George W. Bush, and Donald Trump is more Billy than George W.”

Other the other changes in their projections were: Arizona went from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican”; Michigan went from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”; Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District went from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic”; Nevada went from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic”; Ohio went from “Leans Republican” to “Leans Democratic”; and Utah went from “Solid Republican” to “Leans Republican”.

As a result, Clinton has 341 electoral votes against Trump’s 197. No electoral votes are currently rated as a toss-up.

Finally Sabato did not change their rating of the PA Senate race, which remains a “toss-up”.

6 Responses

  1. PA leaning AGAINST Trump….finally. Nobody cared when he attacked Mexicans, Muslims, gays, blacks, Arabs, kids, beauty pageant girls, but then Trump boasted of attacking a white woman and all hell broke loose.

  2. PA never stopped being ‘likely Dem’ (more like solidly Dem). This is Sabato catching up with what people like me have been saying all along.

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