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September 14th Ups & Downs

A new Monmouth Poll shows a “mixed outlook” for a Congressional race, the PA Democrats Fall Dinner includes rallying behind one another and against Trump, and a Roll Call rating change in the race for Governor, and more are in this week’s Ups and Downs.

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Susan Wild and Marty Nothstein. The Monmouth University poll stated it provided a “mixed outlook” in the race for the newly drawn 7th Congressional District. Both candidates can take some positives and some negatives from the data provided through the polling conducted via telephone from September 5 to 9. Wild leads Nothstein by 6 points among potential voters, but that lead shrinks to just two points for the “standard model.” This poll also provided two distinct firsts for the races polled in 2018 by Monmouth. This is the first poll from Monmouth that out of ten competitive House races in which the Republican candidate’s chances improve when using the “standard likely voter” model and the only race polled in which the Republican candidates voters are more enthusiastic than the Democratic candidate’s voters.

Next Friday. No, not the movie from 2000, but the day will feature a star studded lineup in Pennsylvania. The PA Republican Party is set to have their Fall Dinner in Hershey, which will be headlined by Donald Trump Jr. This is one of the stops the President’s son has set to campaign for the midterm in what he calls, “regular America… you know, everywhere between New York and Malibu.” In Philadelphia, former President Barack Obama is going to host a rally for Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey in Philadelphia. Obama also has a fundraiser set for Casey that day as well.  

PA Democrats Message. Last weekend, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party met in Harrisburg for the Keystone Dinner and state fall committee meetings. Those in attendance expressed real optimism at the prospects of making multiple pick ups in the United States House of Representatives, which even resulted in DNC Chair Tom Perez telling PA Democratic Chair Nancy Patton Mills that Pennsylvania is “ground zero” for the party’s effort in taking back control of the House. The enthusiasm united the party, but the messaging seemed a bit inconsistent. Gov. Tom Wolf talked about voters not wanting to hear “what we’re against, they want us to say, tell us what you’re about.” The party rallied behind reelecting Wolf, Casey, and Democrats down the ballot, but how would they go about it? Officials touted Rep. Conor Lamb’s special election victory in March, which in large part was done without targeting Trump. While the keynote speaker for the dinner, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) dubbed Trump, “the grand wizard of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.”

Wagner campaign. Last Friday, Roll Call changed the ratings for 12 Gubernatorial races, including the race in Pennsylvania shifting it from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. The Wagner campaign didn’t take much stock in this poll stating that their message is resonating with voters across the state, “despite what some out of touch beltway insiders might think.” That same day, Billy Penn published a story titled, “Wagner campaign shares meme mocking trans people in leaked text.” The meme was sent to multiple members of the Wagner campaign and Billy Penn reporter, Max Marin. Ray Zaborney, who sent the meme, apologized to Max for including him in the text message and defended his commitment to the LGBTQ community. “Anyone questioning my commitment to diversity or the LGBT community obviously doesn’t know me very well,” Zaborney responded in a statement in the Billy Penn article. “I am a passionate believer in equality for all and have long been an advocate for marriage equality and ending discrimination in all forms against the LGBTQ community. I’m proud of my advocacy and proud of my efforts and will continue to stand for equality.”

Senior Citizen Vote. Gov. Tom Wolf and GOP challenger, Scott Wagner’s most recent ads released last week, both targeted the senior citizen demographic. The attack ads accused the other candidate of wanting to increase taxes on senior citizens and not being trustworthy. Of course, both campaigns denied the other’s accusation and stated that they were best for senior citizens.   


5 Responses

  1. I always love it when conservatives who live in New York and DC go on and on about “regular America.” And it’s really laughable coming from Don Jr, a guy who was born and raised in New York and spent his summers in Czechoslovakia.

    1. Did you notice that too? “Regular America”. From a trust fund untouchable. I don’t care who you are. That’s some funny stuff right there. Or, so says this member of (the actual, real) regular America.

  2. I noticed the article above that says the Wagner campaign shared a memo mocking trans people. The Wagner campaign reminds me of today’s game at Penn State where a solid Kent State team played well briefly but then special teams mistakes–one after another–quickly put the game out of reach and PSU won. Wagner’s campaign just can’t get it together and have raised tripping over themselves to new heights. One error after another error after another error…this campaign “ain’t happening.” Wagner is just not a good candidate.

    1. I also enjoyed the photos Wagner sent around of himself in a “Democrats for Wagner” t-shirt while tailgating. I guess even he sees that the Republican brand has suffered immensely as the Party of Trump.

  3. An up arrow for November 6, 2018. The only poll that counts. Everyone is currently tied, zero to zero.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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