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Top Story

1. Could Polls About Battleground Senate Races Be Wrong?

Whether it’s been reproductive rights, falling gas prices or the rise in President Biden’s approval rating, things have changed in the calculus for the GOP retaking the Senate.

Recent polls in battleground Senate races across the country, including Pennsylvania, have shown Republican candidates trailing the Democratic opponents in public opinion polls.

But how accurate are those polls? Remember 2016? Could Pennsylvania be off again? (Fox News)

Related

Democrats’ Midterm Reality Check. “After Democrats’ surge in political momentum over the summer, signs indicate the midterm environment is tilting back in the GOP’s direction.” (Axios)

• Trafalgar Poll: Republicans Gain Ground (PoliticsPA)

‘Floundering’ Fetterman Has Democrats Fretting. “Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is running for US Senate, but his floundering performance on the campaign trail has left many questioning whether he is fit to run for office — or even serve in the upper chamber of the house.” (RealClearPolitics)

How Black Business Owners on 52nd Street Feel About John Fetterman. “Business owners and employees on 52nd Street in West Philadelphia responded to a surprise visit from Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman with equal parts support and ambivalence.” (Billy Penn)

Governor

2. Republicans in Key Battleground States Refuse to Say They Will Accept Results

In a survey by The Washington Post, a dozen Republican candidates for governor and Senate in competitive races declined to tell the paper whether they would accept the results of their contest.

Could we see more post-election chaos and confusion just two years after Donald Trump refused to concede the presidency? (Washington Post)

Related

Cracking Down On Gun Trafficking or Impeaching Public Officials? Shapiro and Mastriano On Stopping Crime. “In recent months, the specter of crime has been a central talking point in Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano’s campaign for governor. At a recent campaign stop in the Lehigh Valley, Mastriano claimed crime across the commonwealth had risen 37% since his opponent, Democrat Josh Shapiro, took office as attorney general in 2017. Criminals, he said, “walk free.” It was a misleading statistic.” (WHYY)

Congress

3. GOP Candidates Speak Out

Broad + Liberty continues its series by spotlighting candidates for the United States Congress.

This week’s question: As the debate over the “soul of the nation” intensifies, there are increased calls for unification between parties but increasing moves toward division. How do you plan to serve all your constituents regardless of ideological disposition?

Responding to the question are Brian Fitzpatrick, Christian Nascimento, David Galluch and Guy Ciarrocchi. (Broad + Liberty)

Related

U.S. House District 17 Race Between Chris Deluzio, Jeremy Shaffer Getting National Focus — and Infusion of Cash. In the battle for the U.S. House majority, Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District is emerging as one to watch, and the national dollars being funneled to the southwestern Pennsylvania area show the party leaders’ increasing focus on the race.“” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Poll: Republican Jim Bognet In Dead Heat With Democrat in PA’s 8th Congressional District. “Republican Jim Bognet is tied with Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) in the race for Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District, which includes President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton” (Breitbart)

Around the Commonwealth

Skills Game Company Woos PA Lawmakers With Trips to Wild Wyoming Rodeo. “The trip to Wyoming is the latest example of a largely behind-the-scenes war of cash and influence between skill game operators like Pace-O-Matic and casino owners and other powerful gambling interests in the state.” (Spotlight PA)

Second PA March For Life Event Expected to Draw Large Crowds to PA Capitol on Monday. “More than 100 busloads of people are expected to make their way to the Pennsylvania Capitol on Monday for the state’s second annual March for Life.” (PennLive)

Why We May Not Know Who Won the Senate on Election Day. “It took five days after Election Day 2020 to tally enough votes for media organizations to call the presidential race for Joe Biden. The same thing could happen in some of the country’s most important midterm elections this year.” (POLITICO)

• Lancaster County Elections Office Suffers Substantial Loss of Institutional Knowledge Since 2020 (LNP | Lancaster Online)
• Election Offices Challenged by Surge of Voting Records Requests. (PennLive)

Commentary

• This QAnon-Flavored Soundtrack to Trump, GOP’s Fascist Turn To Trump Should Terrify You (Will Bunch)
• No Wonder Poprik’s Essay Didn’t Mention Oz, Mastriano (Steve Santarsiero)
• John Fetterman, Many Women Aren’t In Your Camp (Christine Flowers)
• Four Present Threats to the Republic (Joseph Sabino Mastick)
• Lancaster County GOP Commissioners Should Cease Waging Inflammatory Partisan Fights and Just Do Their Job (LNP | Lancaster Online) 
• Freedom of Speech, Even If Distasteful, Should Still be Valued (Observer-Reporter)
• Remembering Black Monday, And Avoiding the Next One (Selena Zito)
• Hey, Larry Krasner: You Are Not Above The Law (Kyle Sammin)
• Self-Serving Republicans Are Endorsing MAGA Extremists (The Hill)