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Smith Poll: Casey 46, Smith 44

Senate hopeful Tom Smith has released an internal poll showing him just 2 points behind Sen. Bob Casey.

The survey was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates of 600 likely Pa. voters from Oct. 7-8. The pollster used live interviews, with data weighted the sample chosen so as to reflect Pa.’s demographics. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

“As the election draws nearer and the voters form more solid opinions of the candidates, Bob Casey continues to lose ballot share and Tom Smith continues his upward trajectory,” said pollster John McLaughlin. “Casey is now well below the 50 percent benchmark a safe incumbent should receive and Smith is poised to exceed Senator Casey on the ballot.”

The memo released by Smith’s campaign shows that Casey lead Smith 57 percent to 31 on June 12; 48 percent to 38 on August 12; and 49 percent to 41 on October 1.

Both men has tepid approval numbers. Smith is viewed favorably 34 percent to 32. 34 percent either have no opinion of Smith or haven’t heard of him. Casey is viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent. That’s a net decrease of 20 percent favorability for Casey since June, according to Smith’s pollster.

As with any internal poll, this should be taken with a grain of salt. As almost all campaigns do, Smith’s declined to release its crosstabs.

As Smith’s pollster McLaughlin told Politico for a May 2012 story about why campaigns release internal polls:

“The major reason is to affect media coverage and fundraising. People like to be with a winner and if you have a poll that says you’re going to win, you can fire up your supporters and demoralize your opponents.”

This survey is on the high end for Smith. Real Clear Politics gives Casey an average lead of 6.3 percent. That includes neither this poll nor another privately commissioned poll showing the race within 3 points.

Casey Campaign Manager Larry Smar dismissed the poll.

“The direct fundraising solicitation in the memo should tell you everything you need to know,” he said. “Tom Smith’s policy positions are so far outside the mainstream he has to release cooked internal polls to try to draw support. I have never seen a candidate try so hard to manufacture momentum.”

7 Responses

  1. I think that as Obama would say. (lol) It is time for a change. I voting for Tom Smith. I have read a lot of what he has done.
    As for Tom Casey he has not voted on much in the last two years. He has been absent on the job. I would be fired for that? Fired…Yes we need to start firing anyone who is to busy golfing and playing around. If my taxes go to your pay check you better be working.

  2. I met Tom Smith hs a good man we need him to get out of this mess we are in now casey is just cluless just like his boss obama.and ACORN

  3. Everyone has a choice on who to vote for and the right person with good morals. Do the research and pray for your answer.

    Remember that either candidate will promise the world to us but only one can win. Does it mean that you should vote for the candidate using the most money? Why would anyone want to spend so much on a run for senator of PA? Why would this be such an office of interest?

    Years ago people were appointed to the senator position for the states. This was probably a better process but the constitution was changed just like many changes are happening now. So be careful of who you vote for because money does not buy the best candidate for the job.

  4. You are going to win the race over this ACORN backing slob. I have a daughter like so many other voters. And even if I didn’t ACORN helped an undercover prostitute get a house loan for herself and a couple of underage girlls that could not speak English. How sick can you get? BOB CASEY was one of the first of only 7 in congress to stand up for ACORN and I have not fogotten. BOB CASEY is not fit to be anyones senator.

  5. Mr. Smith will spend $10 million of his own money for a $175K job which equates to a ROI of 57 years. I have one question – how’d this bozo become so rich?

  6. I remember when Tim Holden said he had an internal poll which showed he was up 9 points against Matt Cartwright. Low and behold, he LOST by 9 points (i think) to Matt Cartwright.

    Smith is up because Casey has used his money to help the Dem party. Casey will be elected in November.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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