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Suffolk Poll: Fetterman by Six, Shapiro by 11

John Fetterman, Josh Shapiro
It looks like windshield-wipers in one race and buffing and shining in the other. The latest Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll shows Democrat John Fetterman with a six-point advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz in the chase for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat. In the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Shapiro continues to hold onto a double-digit advantage over GOP nominee Doug Mastriano. In a survey of 500 likely PA voters, Fetterman received 46.4 percent of the responses in the Senate race, while Oz garnered 40 percent. Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt got 1.8 percent, while Keystone Party candidate Dan Wassmer and Green Party nominee Richard Weiss received 0.8 and 0.2 percent, respectively. One in 10 (10.8) respondents indicated that they were undecided. Fetterman is a plus-1 in net favorability, while Oz is still way underwater at minus-17. The man they hope to replace – Pat Toomey – is minus-15. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said that the statement coming closest to their view on the race was, “I want my vote in November to change the direction President Biden is leading the nation.” A combined 51.8 percent said they wanted their vote to either support Biden or did not have much to do with their decision. The Suffolk poll boosted Fetterman’s average in the five most recent PA Senate polls to plus-5.1 percent, while the overall average of 24 polls shows the lieutenant governor up 7.7 points. For the sixth straight poll and nine of the last 11, Shapiro, the state’s Attorney General, holds a double-digit lead over Mastriano, this time at 48.2 to 36.8 percentage points. Libertarian candidate Matt Hackenburg pulled in 1.2 percent, while Green Party nominee Christina “PK” DiGiulio and Keystone Party candidate Joe Soloski received 0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Shapiro has a plus-15 net favorability rating, according to the Suffolk Poll, while Mastriano is underwater at minus-16. Shapiro leads by nearly 12 points (11.8) in the average of the five most recent surveys by pollsters and by 9.3 points in the average of all 22 polls. Nearly 4 in 10 surveyed approved of the job that President Joe Biden is doing. Nearly half (49.4) said that Pennsylvania is on the wrong track. The poll indicated that the economy/inflation is the most important issue as those surveyed prepared to vote at 43.8 percent, while abortion right was a distant second (25.2). This survey of 500 likely Pennsylvania general election voters was conducted between September 27 and September 30, 2022, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2022 general election for governor and U.S. Senate. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points.

2 Responses

  1. Doesn’t look as though Ding Dong Doug’s 40 days of praying and fasting are working. Perhaps it’s time to sacrifice a few virgins.

  2. It looks like Oz’s favorability ratings are stuck, so the best shot he has is to try and lower Fetterman’s favorability. I’d say Fetterman eeks it out on the coattails of Shapiro’s strong showing.


  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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