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Survey Says Casey With Double-Digit Lead on McCormick

Bob Casey, Dave McCormick

In a poll of 800 registered Pennsylvania voters released today by the Commonwealth Foundation, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. holds a 12 percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick in the chase for the state’s open seat in the U.S. Senate.

Casey, the three-term Democratic incumbent, received 48 percent support among those who were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, while McCormick polled at 36%. Five percent of those surveyed said they would vote for another candidate, while 10% indicated “none of the above.”

Males provided Casey with a 14-point lead (51-37%), while women backed the Democrat by a 46-35% count. Younger voters back the Scranton native by 18 points (45-27%), while older voters split the difference in half in favor of Casey (51-42%).

McCormick got some good news from rural areas of the state as respondents backed him by 12 points (47-35%). But Casey dwarfed that advantage in urban areas (64-23%) and equaled it in the suburbs (48-36%).

Finally, in the never-ending quest to cater independent voters, Casey holds a 13-point edge over his GOP challenger (42-29%) with nearly one-in-five selecting “none of the above” as their option.

The senior senator from the Commonwealth was perceived favorably by 50 percent of respondents, while a little more than 1-in-3 (36%) had an unfavorable view. Three percent – or approximately 24 people – indicated that they had never heard of Casey.

More men (52%) than women (48%) has a favorable viewpoint, while voters 45 and older (55%) felt better about the senator than those under 45 (42%). Urban (64%) and wealthier (54%) voters also were favorable to Casey.

PoliticsPA’s poll tracker shows that the average of the last five surveys in the Commonwealth gives Casey an 8.4-point advantage over McCormick, while the average of all 18 polls since the start of 2024 puts the Democrat in front by seven points.

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