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Susquehanna Poll: Obama 47, Romney 45

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 2 point margin, identical to his lead in late September according to Susquehanna Polling and Research. But the Republican’s debate performance contributed to a 6 point jump in his favorability rating.

In a poll conducted just after the first presidential debate, from Oct. 4 to 6, 47 percent of respondents said they support Obama; 45 percent support Romney. 3 percent support Libertarian Gary Johnson.

The Obama-Romney head-to-head numbers are identical the most recent Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released on Sept. 23. The margin of that poll, commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review closely resemble that of another SP&R survey conducted for the Pa. Republican party which showed Obama at a 48 percent to 47 advantage.

When the undecided voters leaning towards a candidate are factored in (breaking 3:1 for Romney), the race narrows to a 1-point Obama lead, 47 percent to 46.

Obama is viewed net favorably, 50 percent to 47 percent.

Perhaps the most significant, given that 76 percent of respondents said they watched the debate, is that for the first time in any public poll, Romney achieves favorable status. 48 percent view him favorably compared to 42 percent who do not.

The pollster further broke down the race thusly:

Obama leads among all females 52-42, while Romney leads 49-42 among males.  In geographic regions, Romney leads Obama in the Southwest (49-36), “T”/Central (63-27), and South Central/Harrisburg (51-39), while Obama leads Romney in the Northwest (58-39), Northeast/Lehigh Valley (53-38) and Philadelphia (86-13).   Obama leads narrowly in the 4 suburban counties in the Southeast (50-45), while Romney leads narrowly in Allegheny County (51-46).  Although the regional breaks usually have a higher margin of error due to smaller sample sizes within them, if these closer margins hold for Romney in both the Southeast and Allegheny County it would validate a significant trend nationally that he is doing better in suburban communities than McCain did four years ago.  In 2008, Obama won Allegheny County and the 4 collar counties around Philadelphia each by fifteen point margins.

SP&R’s surveys have varied from several others released in recent weeks; pollster James Lee explained his firm’s methodology in this essay. Essentially, the firm gives more statistical weight to its sample based on Pa.’s demographic and political composition.

For this poll, SP&R surveyed 725 likely Pa. voters via live telephone interviews (defined as likely by their having voted in at least one the general election in 2008, 2009, 2010 or 2011 and new voters registered since November 2011). It was not commissioned by any party, news organization or candidate. “Interviews are closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of Pennsylvania’s electorate is achieved based on party, geography, gender, age and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted.”

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  3. I live in Pa and I can tell you that Obama is not liked here. Everywhere around here there are “Stop the war on coal, fire Obama”signs and Romney/Ryan signs. I have seen a total of 4 Obama signs and 2 of them were posted on the same lawn. There are tens of thousands of people that work either directly or indirectly in the coal industry in this state. Obama could easily win Ohio and Pa if he wasn’t launching an assult in the coal industry. My husband works in the coal industry and we’ve been affected by Obama’s policies. He must go!

  4. The way you can tell if a stick is crooked is by putting a straight stick next to it. That is what we all saw at last weeks debate. I will be partying like a rock star when I see BHO board Marine 1 to go back to Chicago

  5. Are women or African American better off now than four years ago?

    The Undecideds traditionally break to challenger.

  6. This is the same pollster who had Murtha in trouble in consecutive elections. Murtha killed it by double digits in both races.

  7. Everyone knows this is a Republican friendly poll. if this Republican poll shows the same numbers as the pre-debate ones that shows no Romney bump in PA.

  8. Actually, since his debate, Romney has SURGED with women. He is now EVEN with Obama for women voters.

    Obama is in big, big trouble.

  9. Pa., aside from Phila. and Pitts. is waking up to the fact that the Obama crew has been a complete lie with its hope and change. None of their views connect with the traditional Dem Party heroes like Truman, JFK, Scoop Jackson, Sam Nunn. They are in fact the most radical group of European socialists in our history to achieve power. They have had not one domestic or foreign policy that has bettered American or Americans: not Obamacare, jobs, energy, border solutions, taxes, regs, or spending restraints. Any real comparison between Mitt’s and BHO’s domestic and international relations agendas was shown in the debate where the Prez was the Emperor with no clothes and with scandals breaking like Solyndra, Fast and today’s foreign donor scandal, and Mitt’s brilliant patriotic no apologies ‘ speech, it is time for America to throw out this social experiment because it has led to socialist failures. Period.

  10. I hope Obama will lose the election. If PA is indeed in play (and I have no idea if it is or isn’t), it’s going to be a long night for our pathetic excuse for a president.

  11. I would really like to know which women were being polled in order for Obama to have the favorability rating that he does among women. No one has ever asked me or any of the women I know! We DO NOT support this President nor any of the policies that he has tried to promote.

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