Analysis: What James Malone’s Special Election Victory Means
Was it GOP overconfidence, candidate hubris, or Democratic enthusiasm to make their voices heard?
March 26, 2025
6 Comments
Was it GOP overconfidence, candidate hubris, or Democratic enthusiasm to make their voices heard?
It has never happened in the 36th Senatorial District since the area was reconfigured in 1983.
This was Republican-owned land in northern Lancaster County, as only four GOP representatives previously held the seat in Harrisburg.
The earth quaking under your feet this morning was the sound of Democrats celebrating a monumental flip, as East Petersburg borough mayor James Malone pulled off the upset, defeating the chair of the Lancaster County commissioners, Josh Parsons, by 482 votes.
The special election was held to fill out the term of Ryan Aument, who resigned the position earlier this year to assume the role of state director for U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick. Parsons was selected by the Lancaster County Republicans as their candidate, but due to overconfidence, hubris, or Democratic enthusiasm to make their voices heard, his failure to retain the seat is being discussed far and wide.
Were Republicans overconfident? Probably. Combining the history of the District combined with a 53-30% voter registration advantage, it seems clear that if the GOP was not overconfident, it certainly had the right.
Remember, the closest a Democrat has come in an election in the 36th in the 21st century was 23,000 votes.
Did Republicans select the best candidate? The answer may be found in last night’s election results. Parsons received the nod over state Rep. Brett Miller (R-41) who won his reelection campaign in 2024 in a similar area of the county, 56-44%. He has been a polarizing figure, not only among Democrats in Lancaster County, but also among more moderate Republicans. He has been vocal on culture war issues, such as condemning Lancaster City Council’s “Welcoming City” immigration ordinance and his opposition to the Lancaster library’s ‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ that resulted in a bomb threat that closed the facility and much of downtown for several hours last year.
Parsons boasted that he and fellow GOP commissioner, Ray D’Agostino, ignored then-Gov. Tom Wolf’s shutdown orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has also made a point of calling out LNP | Lancaster Online, the local daily, as a biased news source, while also hinting that while Lancaster County election results were accurate and fair, he could not say the same for other counties in the Commonwealth.
A former prosecutor, Parsons opted not to participate in a forum leading up to the election sponsored by the League of Women Voters. According to LNP, he has also touted his record as commissioner, saying the County has had no changes to tax rates in 12 years. The outlet reported in January that the county’s current spending policies would produce a $30 million budget hole as soon as next year.
To top it off, Parsons has been an outspoken critic of mail ballots, saying on his campaign website that he opposed Act 77 since conception and “warned about its dangers” even prior to the 2020 election.
There is a touch of irony to the fact that Malone built a 5,300-vote lead with mail ballots – a margin that was closed to 482 votes with the addition of Election Day votes.
So, yes. Parsons was a polarizing candidate. Still, Republicans had 23 percent more registered voters than Democrats. President Donald Trump won the district by 15 points. If there were headwinds due to the candidate, the tailwinds may have been stronger due to the locale. Right?
The tea leaves said one thing. Watching the chaos happening in Washington said another.
Could Lancaster Countians be making a statement about their feelings about tariffs, executive orders, DOGE, war plans discussed over Signal, and, yes, Elon Musk?
Malone picking up 50% of the vote in a district where the best Democratic performance in a quarter-century was 33% may be an indication.
Gov. Josh Shapiro took to social media to congratulate the mayor of the borough of 4,571 residents, located just north of Lancaster city.
Tonight in Lancaster County, Pennsylvanians rejected a candidate who embraced the extremism and division coming out of DC.
In a district carried comfortably by Donald Trump just a few months ago, they chose a better way forward – an embrace of competence, commonsense, and a… https://t.co/zoJkcLwYGr
— Josh Shapiro (@JoshShapiroPA) March 26, 2025
Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D-Allegheny) welcomed Malone to the chamber, writing “The people of Lancaster County were loud and clear: Decency and commonsense beats the Trump and Musk agenda of hatred, chaos, and misery. I am thrilled to welcome another outstanding champion for Democratic values to the Pennsylvania Senate Democrats, and I look forward to working with him to continue fighting for a government that works for every Pennsylvanian. As we go forward in our discussions of the future of education, transit, healthcare, housing, good jobs, and care for our elders, I know James Malone will be a champion of the values Lancaster holds dear.”
Maybe Malone himself put it best.
“Over the last few weeks, I talked to a lot of my neighbors and I met a lot of new folks in this community,” he said in a statement. “And no matter their party registration or voting history, we all pretty much agreed on one thing: it’s time for common sense, kindness, and transparency. A lot of people from around the state and country said this district wasn’t competitive, and they’d never elect someone from the other party but I think that underestimates Lancaster. We are watching our values be denigrated in Washington as our leaders in Harrisburg watch silently. I talked to this district, and I listened, and we agreed it’s time to act. I am ready to get to work for our district, county, and state.”
PoliticsPA asked a number of political scientists for their thoughts on the outcome, its meaning in the present and also for the future.
“Special elections can produce surprises, and a Republican loss in a district where they hold a 23-point registration advantage qualifies. The district is a bit more affluent and educated than Lancaster County as a whole. Couple that with it being an open seat contest and you had the makings of a race that could be closer than usual. It may be that the usual backlash against the party in power in Washington added to those other factors to produce the narrow victory. It may also confirm what many suspect – Democrats’ have an advantage among college-educated voters, a group that is more likely to vote, that will help them in lower-turnout elections. It’s not wise to read too much into any off-cycle special election, so I’d be careful about drawing too many conclusions, but interpreting the meaning of this race may be a bit clearer once we know the outcomes in next week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race and the two Florida congressional districts.” – Berwood Yost, Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Center for Opinion Research, Franklin & Marshall College
“Special elections are a snapshot in time and regardless of the results of a single special, it’s best to be cautious about reading too much into the results. It’s clear though that Democrats, who are much more at ease voting by mail, have an advantage now in low turnout specials. The 36th will be a top target and let’s see how things look after Mr. Malone starts casting consequential votes in the Senate.” – Chris Nicholas, Eagle Consulting Group, Inc.
“Democrats have done really, really well in special elections in the Trump era. That’s mostly because these elections are low profile/low turnout affairs. Given the Democrats’ growing strength among college educated, suburban voters, they have an advantage in low turnout elections. Add to that the fact that this is an off-year race with a Republican president whose approval rating is underwater and you get another advantage for Democrats.
Keep in mind that Democrats in Iowa also flipped a seat back in January and that was a similar district. Trump had one it with almost 60% of the vote. This suggests that a lot of what happened last night in the 36th is structural.
LIke Berwood, I’d caution about reading too much into this one result. But if we continue to see 15-20 point shifts toward Democrats in elections this year – in the WI Supreme Court race, US House races in Florida, the NJ and VA gubernatorial races – it should set off alarm bells in Republican Party headquarters around the country. It’s still a long time until November 2026, and a lot can happen between now and then, but we may be seeing the beginnings of a blue wave.” – Stephen Medvic, The Honorable & Mrs. John C. Kunkel Professor of Government; Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs; Co-Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Franklin & Marshall College
“As Berwood and Stephen have noted it’s really good to limit generalizations from special elections. I just came from teaching my methods class and told my class using something “special” to tell us about the “ordinary” is not a great idea. That said, I think the results from yesterday should send some chills up the spines of GOP officials that are looking at elections in the state in 2025 and 2026. The combination of historic political cycles, shifting party demographics that help Democrats in non-presidential years and the uncertainty that the public is feeling in the wake of the Trump Administration’s actions poses a pretty solid headwind for Republicans in upcoming elections. The Democrats have their own significant brand problems but conditions might be helpful for their candidates to overperform in the near future.” – Chris Borick, Professor of Political Science Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
It has never happened in the 36th Senatorial District since the area was reconfigured in 1983.
This was Republican-owned land in northern Lancaster County, as only four GOP representatives previously held the seat in Harrisburg.
The earth quaking under your feet this morning was the sound of Democrats celebrating a monumental flip, as East Petersburg borough mayor James Malone pulled off the upset, defeating the chair of the Lancaster County commissioners, Josh Parsons, by 482 votes.
The special election was held to fill out the term of Ryan Aument, who resigned the position earlier this year to assume the role of state director for U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick. Parsons was selected by the Lancaster County Republicans as their candidate, but due to overconfidence, hubris, or Democratic enthusiasm to make their voices heard, his failure to retain the seat is being discussed far and wide.
Were Republicans overconfident? Probably. Combining the history of the District combined with a 53-30% voter registration advantage, it seems clear that if the GOP was not overconfident, it certainly had the right.
Remember, the closest a Democrat has come in an election in the 36th in the 21st century was 23,000 votes.
Did Republicans select the best candidate? The answer may be found in last night’s election results. Parsons received the nod over state Rep. Brett Miller (R-41) who won his reelection campaign in 2024 in a similar area of the county, 56-44%. He has been a polarizing figure, not only among Democrats in Lancaster County, but also among more moderate Republicans. He has been vocal on culture war issues, such as condemning Lancaster City Council’s “Welcoming City” immigration ordinance and his opposition to the Lancaster library’s ‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ that resulted in a bomb threat that closed the facility and much of downtown for several hours last year.
Parsons boasted that he and fellow GOP commissioner, Ray D’Agostino, ignored then-Gov. Tom Wolf’s shutdown orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has also made a point of calling out LNP | Lancaster Online, the local daily, as a biased news source, while also hinting that while Lancaster County election results were accurate and fair, he could not say the same for other counties in the Commonwealth.
A former prosecutor, Parsons opted not to participate in a forum leading up to the election sponsored by the League of Women Voters. According to LNP, he has also touted his record as commissioner, saying the County has had no changes to tax rates in 12 years. The outlet reported in January that the county’s current spending policies would produce a $30 million budget hole as soon as next year.
To top it off, Parsons has been an outspoken critic of mail ballots, saying on his campaign website that he opposed Act 77 since conception and “warned about its dangers” even prior to the 2020 election.
There is a touch of irony to the fact that Malone built a 5,300-vote lead with mail ballots – a margin that was closed to 482 votes with the addition of Election Day votes.
So, yes. Parsons was a polarizing candidate. Still, Republicans had 23 percent more registered voters than Democrats. President Donald Trump won the district by 15 points. If there were headwinds due to the candidate, the tailwinds may have been stronger due to the locale. Right?
The tea leaves said one thing. Watching the chaos happening in Washington said another.
Could Lancaster Countians be making a statement about their feelings about tariffs, executive orders, DOGE, war plans discussed over Signal, and, yes, Elon Musk?
Malone picking up 50% of the vote in a district where the best Democratic performance in a quarter-century was 33% may be an indication.
Gov. Josh Shapiro took to social media to congratulate the mayor of the borough of 4,571 residents, located just north of Lancaster city.
Tonight in Lancaster County, Pennsylvanians rejected a candidate who embraced the extremism and division coming out of DC.
In a district carried comfortably by Donald Trump just a few months ago, they chose a better way forward – an embrace of competence, commonsense, and a… https://t.co/zoJkcLwYGr
— Josh Shapiro (@JoshShapiroPA) March 26, 2025
Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D-Allegheny) welcomed Malone to the chamber, writing “The people of Lancaster County were loud and clear: Decency and commonsense beats the Trump and Musk agenda of hatred, chaos, and misery. I am thrilled to welcome another outstanding champion for Democratic values to the Pennsylvania Senate Democrats, and I look forward to working with him to continue fighting for a government that works for every Pennsylvanian. As we go forward in our discussions of the future of education, transit, healthcare, housing, good jobs, and care for our elders, I know James Malone will be a champion of the values Lancaster holds dear.”
Maybe Malone himself put it best.
“Over the last few weeks, I talked to a lot of my neighbors and I met a lot of new folks in this community,” he said in a statement. “And no matter their party registration or voting history, we all pretty much agreed on one thing: it’s time for common sense, kindness, and transparency. A lot of people from around the state and country said this district wasn’t competitive, and they’d never elect someone from the other party but I think that underestimates Lancaster. We are watching our values be denigrated in Washington as our leaders in Harrisburg watch silently. I talked to this district, and I listened, and we agreed it’s time to act. I am ready to get to work for our district, county, and state.”
PoliticsPA asked a number of political scientists for their thoughts on the outcome, its meaning in the present and also for the future.
“Special elections can produce surprises, and a Republican loss in a district where they hold a 23-point registration advantage qualifies. The district is a bit more affluent and educated than Lancaster County as a whole. Couple that with it being an open seat contest and you had the makings of a race that could be closer than usual. It may be that the usual backlash against the party in power in Washington added to those other factors to produce the narrow victory. It may also confirm what many suspect – Democrats’ have an advantage among college-educated voters, a group that is more likely to vote, that will help them in lower-turnout elections. It’s not wise to read too much into any off-cycle special election, so I’d be careful about drawing too many conclusions, but interpreting the meaning of this race may be a bit clearer once we know the outcomes in next week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race and the two Florida congressional districts.” – Berwood Yost, Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Center for Opinion Research, Franklin & Marshall College
“Special elections are a snapshot in time and regardless of the results of a single special, it’s best to be cautious about reading too much into the results. It’s clear though that Democrats, who are much more at ease voting by mail, have an advantage now in low turnout specials. The 36th will be a top target and let’s see how things look after Mr. Malone starts casting consequential votes in the Senate.” – Chris Nicholas, Eagle Consulting Group, Inc.
“Democrats have done really, really well in special elections in the Trump era. That’s mostly because these elections are low profile/low turnout affairs. Given the Democrats’ growing strength among college educated, suburban voters, they have an advantage in low turnout elections. Add to that the fact that this is an off-year race with a Republican president whose approval rating is underwater and you get another advantage for Democrats.
Keep in mind that Democrats in Iowa also flipped a seat back in January and that was a similar district. Trump had one it with almost 60% of the vote. This suggests that a lot of what happened last night in the 36th is structural.
LIke Berwood, I’d caution about reading too much into this one result. But if we continue to see 15-20 point shifts toward Democrats in elections this year – in the WI Supreme Court race, US House races in Florida, the NJ and VA gubernatorial races – it should set off alarm bells in Republican Party headquarters around the country. It’s still a long time until November 2026, and a lot can happen between now and then, but we may be seeing the beginnings of a blue wave.” – Stephen Medvic, The Honorable & Mrs. John C. Kunkel Professor of Government; Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs; Co-Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Franklin & Marshall College
“As Berwood and Stephen have noted it’s really good to limit generalizations from special elections. I just came from teaching my methods class and told my class using something “special” to tell us about the “ordinary” is not a great idea. That said, I think the results from yesterday should send some chills up the spines of GOP officials that are looking at elections in the state in 2025 and 2026. The combination of historic political cycles, shifting party demographics that help Democrats in non-presidential years and the uncertainty that the public is feeling in the wake of the Trump Administration’s actions poses a pretty solid headwind for Republicans in upcoming elections. The Democrats have their own significant brand problems but conditions might be helpful for their candidates to overperform in the near future.” – Chris Borick, Professor of Political Science Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
It has never happened in the 36th Senatorial District since the area was reconfigured in 1983.
This was Republican-owned land in northern Lancaster County, as only four GOP representatives previously held the seat in Harrisburg.
The earth quaking under your feet this morning was the sound of Democrats celebrating a monumental flip, as East Petersburg borough mayor James Malone pulled off the upset, defeating the chair of the Lancaster County commissioners, Josh Parsons, by 482 votes.
The special election was held to fill out the term of Ryan Aument, who resigned the position earlier this year to assume the role of state director for U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick. Parsons was selected by the Lancaster County Republicans as their candidate, but due to overconfidence, hubris, or Democratic enthusiasm to make their voices heard, his failure to retain the seat is being discussed far and wide.
Were Republicans overconfident? Probably. Combining the history of the District combined with a 53-30% voter registration advantage, it seems clear that if the GOP was not overconfident, it certainly had the right.
Remember, the closest a Democrat has come in an election in the 36th in the 21st century was 23,000 votes.
Did Republicans select the best candidate? The answer may be found in last night’s election results. Parsons received the nod over state Rep. Brett Miller (R-41) who won his reelection campaign in 2024 in a similar area of the county, 56-44%. He has been a polarizing figure, not only among Democrats in Lancaster County, but also among more moderate Republicans. He has been vocal on culture war issues, such as condemning Lancaster City Council’s “Welcoming City” immigration ordinance and his opposition to the Lancaster library’s ‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ that resulted in a bomb threat that closed the facility and much of downtown for several hours last year.
Parsons boasted that he and fellow GOP commissioner, Ray D’Agostino, ignored then-Gov. Tom Wolf’s shutdown orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has also made a point of calling out LNP | Lancaster Online, the local daily, as a biased news source, while also hinting that while Lancaster County election results were accurate and fair, he could not say the same for other counties in the Commonwealth.
A former prosecutor, Parsons opted not to participate in a forum leading up to the election sponsored by the League of Women Voters. According to LNP, he has also touted his record as commissioner, saying the County has had no changes to tax rates in 12 years. The outlet reported in January that the county’s current spending policies would produce a $30 million budget hole as soon as next year.
To top it off, Parsons has been an outspoken critic of mail ballots, saying on his campaign website that he opposed Act 77 since conception and “warned about its dangers” even prior to the 2020 election.
There is a touch of irony to the fact that Malone built a 5,300-vote lead with mail ballots – a margin that was closed to 482 votes with the addition of Election Day votes.
So, yes. Parsons was a polarizing candidate. Still, Republicans had 23 percent more registered voters than Democrats. President Donald Trump won the district by 15 points. If there were headwinds due to the candidate, the tailwinds may have been stronger due to the locale. Right?
The tea leaves said one thing. Watching the chaos happening in Washington said another.
Could Lancaster Countians be making a statement about their feelings about tariffs, executive orders, DOGE, war plans discussed over Signal, and, yes, Elon Musk?
Malone picking up 50% of the vote in a district where the best Democratic performance in a quarter-century was 33% may be an indication.
Gov. Josh Shapiro took to social media to congratulate the mayor of the borough of 4,571 residents, located just north of Lancaster city.
Tonight in Lancaster County, Pennsylvanians rejected a candidate who embraced the extremism and division coming out of DC.
In a district carried comfortably by Donald Trump just a few months ago, they chose a better way forward – an embrace of competence, commonsense, and a… https://t.co/zoJkcLwYGr
— Josh Shapiro (@JoshShapiroPA) March 26, 2025
Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D-Allegheny) welcomed Malone to the chamber, writing “The people of Lancaster County were loud and clear: Decency and commonsense beats the Trump and Musk agenda of hatred, chaos, and misery. I am thrilled to welcome another outstanding champion for Democratic values to the Pennsylvania Senate Democrats, and I look forward to working with him to continue fighting for a government that works for every Pennsylvanian. As we go forward in our discussions of the future of education, transit, healthcare, housing, good jobs, and care for our elders, I know James Malone will be a champion of the values Lancaster holds dear.”
Maybe Malone himself put it best.
“Over the last few weeks, I talked to a lot of my neighbors and I met a lot of new folks in this community,” he said in a statement. “And no matter their party registration or voting history, we all pretty much agreed on one thing: it’s time for common sense, kindness, and transparency. A lot of people from around the state and country said this district wasn’t competitive, and they’d never elect someone from the other party but I think that underestimates Lancaster. We are watching our values be denigrated in Washington as our leaders in Harrisburg watch silently. I talked to this district, and I listened, and we agreed it’s time to act. I am ready to get to work for our district, county, and state.”
PoliticsPA asked a number of political scientists for their thoughts on the outcome, its meaning in the present and also for the future.
“Special elections can produce surprises, and a Republican loss in a district where they hold a 23-point registration advantage qualifies. The district is a bit more affluent and educated than Lancaster County as a whole. Couple that with it being an open seat contest and you had the makings of a race that could be closer than usual. It may be that the usual backlash against the party in power in Washington added to those other factors to produce the narrow victory. It may also confirm what many suspect – Democrats’ have an advantage among college-educated voters, a group that is more likely to vote, that will help them in lower-turnout elections. It’s not wise to read too much into any off-cycle special election, so I’d be careful about drawing too many conclusions, but interpreting the meaning of this race may be a bit clearer once we know the outcomes in next week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race and the two Florida congressional districts.” – Berwood Yost, Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Center for Opinion Research, Franklin & Marshall College
“Special elections are a snapshot in time and regardless of the results of a single special, it’s best to be cautious about reading too much into the results. It’s clear though that Democrats, who are much more at ease voting by mail, have an advantage now in low turnout specials. The 36th will be a top target and let’s see how things look after Mr. Malone starts casting consequential votes in the Senate.” – Chris Nicholas, Eagle Consulting Group, Inc.
“Democrats have done really, really well in special elections in the Trump era. That’s mostly because these elections are low profile/low turnout affairs. Given the Democrats’ growing strength among college educated, suburban voters, they have an advantage in low turnout elections. Add to that the fact that this is an off-year race with a Republican president whose approval rating is underwater and you get another advantage for Democrats.
Keep in mind that Democrats in Iowa also flipped a seat back in January and that was a similar district. Trump had one it with almost 60% of the vote. This suggests that a lot of what happened last night in the 36th is structural.
LIke Berwood, I’d caution about reading too much into this one result. But if we continue to see 15-20 point shifts toward Democrats in elections this year – in the WI Supreme Court race, US House races in Florida, the NJ and VA gubernatorial races – it should set off alarm bells in Republican Party headquarters around the country. It’s still a long time until November 2026, and a lot can happen between now and then, but we may be seeing the beginnings of a blue wave.” – Stephen Medvic, The Honorable & Mrs. John C. Kunkel Professor of Government; Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs; Co-Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Franklin & Marshall College
“As Berwood and Stephen have noted it’s really good to limit generalizations from special elections. I just came from teaching my methods class and told my class using something “special” to tell us about the “ordinary” is not a great idea. That said, I think the results from yesterday should send some chills up the spines of GOP officials that are looking at elections in the state in 2025 and 2026. The combination of historic political cycles, shifting party demographics that help Democrats in non-presidential years and the uncertainty that the public is feeling in the wake of the Trump Administration’s actions poses a pretty solid headwind for Republicans in upcoming elections. The Democrats have their own significant brand problems but conditions might be helpful for their candidates to overperform in the near future.” – Chris Borick, Professor of Political Science Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
It has never happened in the 36th Senatorial District since the area was reconfigured in 1983.
This was Republican-owned land in northern Lancaster County, as only four GOP representatives previously held the seat in Harrisburg.
The earth quaking under your feet this morning was the sound of Democrats celebrating a monumental flip, as East Petersburg borough mayor James Malone pulled off the upset, defeating the chair of the Lancaster County commissioners, Josh Parsons, by 482 votes.
The special election was held to fill out the term of Ryan Aument, who resigned the position earlier this year to assume the role of state director for U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick. Parsons was selected by the Lancaster County Republicans as their candidate, but due to overconfidence, hubris, or Democratic enthusiasm to make their voices heard, his failure to retain the seat is being discussed far and wide.
Were Republicans overconfident? Probably. Combining the history of the District combined with a 53-30% voter registration advantage, it seems clear that if the GOP was not overconfident, it certainly had the right.
Remember, the closest a Democrat has come in an election in the 36th in the 21st century was 23,000 votes.
Did Republicans select the best candidate? The answer may be found in last night’s election results. Parsons received the nod over state Rep. Brett Miller (R-41) who won his reelection campaign in 2024 in a similar area of the county, 56-44%. He has been a polarizing figure, not only among Democrats in Lancaster County, but also among more moderate Republicans. He has been vocal on culture war issues, such as condemning Lancaster City Council’s “Welcoming City” immigration ordinance and his opposition to the Lancaster library’s ‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ that resulted in a bomb threat that closed the facility and much of downtown for several hours last year.
Parsons boasted that he and fellow GOP commissioner, Ray D’Agostino, ignored then-Gov. Tom Wolf’s shutdown orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has also made a point of calling out LNP | Lancaster Online, the local daily, as a biased news source, while also hinting that while Lancaster County election results were accurate and fair, he could not say the same for other counties in the Commonwealth.
A former prosecutor, Parsons opted not to participate in a forum leading up to the election sponsored by the League of Women Voters. According to LNP, he has also touted his record as commissioner, saying the County has had no changes to tax rates in 12 years. The outlet reported in January that the county’s current spending policies would produce a $30 million budget hole as soon as next year.
To top it off, Parsons has been an outspoken critic of mail ballots, saying on his campaign website that he opposed Act 77 since conception and “warned about its dangers” even prior to the 2020 election.
There is a touch of irony to the fact that Malone built a 5,300-vote lead with mail ballots – a margin that was closed to 482 votes with the addition of Election Day votes.
So, yes. Parsons was a polarizing candidate. Still, Republicans had 23 percent more registered voters than Democrats. President Donald Trump won the district by 15 points. If there were headwinds due to the candidate, the tailwinds may have been stronger due to the locale. Right?
The tea leaves said one thing. Watching the chaos happening in Washington said another.
Could Lancaster Countians be making a statement about their feelings about tariffs, executive orders, DOGE, war plans discussed over Signal, and, yes, Elon Musk?
Malone picking up 50% of the vote in a district where the best Democratic performance in a quarter-century was 33% may be an indication.
Gov. Josh Shapiro took to social media to congratulate the mayor of the borough of 4,571 residents, located just north of Lancaster city.
Tonight in Lancaster County, Pennsylvanians rejected a candidate who embraced the extremism and division coming out of DC.
In a district carried comfortably by Donald Trump just a few months ago, they chose a better way forward – an embrace of competence, commonsense, and a… https://t.co/zoJkcLwYGr
— Josh Shapiro (@JoshShapiroPA) March 26, 2025
Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D-Allegheny) welcomed Malone to the chamber, writing “The people of Lancaster County were loud and clear: Decency and commonsense beats the Trump and Musk agenda of hatred, chaos, and misery. I am thrilled to welcome another outstanding champion for Democratic values to the Pennsylvania Senate Democrats, and I look forward to working with him to continue fighting for a government that works for every Pennsylvanian. As we go forward in our discussions of the future of education, transit, healthcare, housing, good jobs, and care for our elders, I know James Malone will be a champion of the values Lancaster holds dear.”
Maybe Malone himself put it best.
“Over the last few weeks, I talked to a lot of my neighbors and I met a lot of new folks in this community,” he said in a statement. “And no matter their party registration or voting history, we all pretty much agreed on one thing: it’s time for common sense, kindness, and transparency. A lot of people from around the state and country said this district wasn’t competitive, and they’d never elect someone from the other party but I think that underestimates Lancaster. We are watching our values be denigrated in Washington as our leaders in Harrisburg watch silently. I talked to this district, and I listened, and we agreed it’s time to act. I am ready to get to work for our district, county, and state.”
PoliticsPA asked a number of political scientists for their thoughts on the outcome, its meaning in the present and also for the future.
“Special elections can produce surprises, and a Republican loss in a district where they hold a 23-point registration advantage qualifies. The district is a bit more affluent and educated than Lancaster County as a whole. Couple that with it being an open seat contest and you had the makings of a race that could be closer than usual. It may be that the usual backlash against the party in power in Washington added to those other factors to produce the narrow victory. It may also confirm what many suspect – Democrats’ have an advantage among college-educated voters, a group that is more likely to vote, that will help them in lower-turnout elections. It’s not wise to read too much into any off-cycle special election, so I’d be careful about drawing too many conclusions, but interpreting the meaning of this race may be a bit clearer once we know the outcomes in next week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race and the two Florida congressional districts.” – Berwood Yost, Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Center for Opinion Research, Franklin & Marshall College
“Special elections are a snapshot in time and regardless of the results of a single special, it’s best to be cautious about reading too much into the results. It’s clear though that Democrats, who are much more at ease voting by mail, have an advantage now in low turnout specials. The 36th will be a top target and let’s see how things look after Mr. Malone starts casting consequential votes in the Senate.” – Chris Nicholas, Eagle Consulting Group, Inc.
“Democrats have done really, really well in special elections in the Trump era. That’s mostly because these elections are low profile/low turnout affairs. Given the Democrats’ growing strength among college educated, suburban voters, they have an advantage in low turnout elections. Add to that the fact that this is an off-year race with a Republican president whose approval rating is underwater and you get another advantage for Democrats.
Keep in mind that Democrats in Iowa also flipped a seat back in January and that was a similar district. Trump had one it with almost 60% of the vote. This suggests that a lot of what happened last night in the 36th is structural.
LIke Berwood, I’d caution about reading too much into this one result. But if we continue to see 15-20 point shifts toward Democrats in elections this year – in the WI Supreme Court race, US House races in Florida, the NJ and VA gubernatorial races – it should set off alarm bells in Republican Party headquarters around the country. It’s still a long time until November 2026, and a lot can happen between now and then, but we may be seeing the beginnings of a blue wave.” – Stephen Medvic, The Honorable & Mrs. John C. Kunkel Professor of Government; Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs; Co-Director, Floyd Institute for Public Policy, Franklin & Marshall College
“As Berwood and Stephen have noted it’s really good to limit generalizations from special elections. I just came from teaching my methods class and told my class using something “special” to tell us about the “ordinary” is not a great idea. That said, I think the results from yesterday should send some chills up the spines of GOP officials that are looking at elections in the state in 2025 and 2026. The combination of historic political cycles, shifting party demographics that help Democrats in non-presidential years and the uncertainty that the public is feeling in the wake of the Trump Administration’s actions poses a pretty solid headwind for Republicans in upcoming elections. The Democrats have their own significant brand problems but conditions might be helpful for their candidates to overperform in the near future.” – Chris Borick, Professor of Political Science Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
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