The latest Commonwealth Foundation “swing state” poll of Pennsylvania found the presidential race “too close to call” in the state, while the U.S. Senate race gap is widening.

The survey, released Friday by the Commonwealth Foundation, interviewed 800 Pennsylvania voters between July 23 and July 25, 2024, following President Biden’s decision to leave the presidential race. The margin of error is ± 3.46.

Vice President Kamala Harris registered a slight edge in support over former President Donald Trump in the first survey of Commonwealth residents since President Joe Biden declared that he would not seek a second term.

Harris polled at 47 percent, while Trump came in at 46% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. When questioned who they would select in a multi-candidate race, Harris and Trump were deadlocked at 44 percent, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 3% support.

In a survey taken at the end of the second quarter by the right-leaning think tank, Biden held a 45-44% edge over Trump, indicating that Biden’s debate performance has basically been taken out of the equation moving forward for voters.

Those satisfied with their choice of candidates has also swung with the ascension of Harris. In the last poll, nearly 3-in-5 (60%) were dissatisfied with their options, while that number has shrunk to 43% in this survey.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. has a commanding 11 percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick, 51-40%. It is the third time in the last four polls conducted in the Commonwealth that Casey has reached the 50-percent plateau and is the fourth time in the previous seven surveys that the Scranton native has held at least an eight-point advantage over McCormick.

Other Pennsylvania Races

The race for the “top cop” in Pennsylvania is also within the margin of error, as Democratic candidate Eugene DePasquale received 44% support versus his GOP opponent Dave Sunday who drew 41%. Five percent selected “other” while another 10 percent said “none of the above,” indicating that the Attorney General still has movement ahead.

The Auditor General contest could not be tighter, as Republican incumbent Tim DeFoor and Democratic challenger Rep. Malcom Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia) are deadlocked at 43 percent apiece.

The contest for State Treasurer mirrors that of the previous survey, as GOP incumbent Stacy Garrity and Democratic challenger Erin McClelland are even at 44 percent.

State Policy

The Commonwealth Foundation has been at odds with Gov. Josh Shapiro on a number of issues, including school choice, and posed eight questions that called out the governor on various topics.

• 84% – Governor should play more active role in working with legislature to deliver on what he’s promised
• 76% – Governor should play more active role to pass budget on time
• 76% – Governor should be more transparent about his official activities
• 40% – Support mandate to increase use of alternative energy sources, even if it leads to higher energy costs
• 31% – Support RGGI program that would impose new energy tax
• 29% – Support PACER tax on PA energy producers to reduce emissions