Congressional Vulnerability Rankings – Election Day 2024
Since our last analysis in September, we’ve seen enough movement to make one change
October 29, 2024
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Since our last analysis in September, we’ve seen enough movement to make one change
Our third handicapping of the 2024 Pennsylvania congressional races
Scott Perry joins Matt Cartwright, Susan Wild and Chris Deluzio as ‘vulnerable’ in ratings
by Louis Jacobson
PoliticsPA contributing writer
Election Day 2024 is almost here, so it’s time to assemble our final PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House.
For the eighth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. This is our fourth handicapping of the 2024 election cycle.
Since our last analysis in September, we’ve seen enough movement to make one change — involving the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
The Perry-Stelson contest, involving a district that includes portions of the Harrisburg and York regions, has consistently risen in our vulnerability rankings over the past year and a half. It began in the fifth-most vulnerable slot in the July 2023 edition of our list. We’re now moving it into a tie for second, joining the seat held by Democratic Rep. Susan Wild.
As was the case in September, the most vulnerable seat in our analysis is the one held by Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright.
The fourth race in our “Vulnerable” category, ranking behind Perry and Wild, is the one involving the reelection bid by Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio.
The only other seat on our list remains in our “Potentially Vulnerable” category, the one held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R).
Here’s our full rundown. Statistics are from the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
No. 1: 8th Congressional District
Incumbent: Matt Cartwright (D)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2022 House result: Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latino: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%
Once again, Cartwright occupies the top spot on our vulnerability list.
The Scranton-based district went for Donald Trump in 2020 by three points, and while Cartwright has won tough races before, he faces construction CEO Rob Bresnahan this year, who is considered a strong recruit for the GOP.
Cartwright’s biggest advantage is in money. Through mid-October, Cartwright had more than doubled Bresnahan’s amount of spending, and he entered the final stretch with a 4-to-1 advantage in cash on hand. Outside groups opposing each candidate have spent to a rough parity.
The Scranton area is a key area in the presidential race because it’s historically Democratic but has been shifting toward the GOP in recent elections. How the presidential race shakes out locally is likely to have a big impact on the House race.
No. 2 (tie): 7th Congressional District
Incumbent: Susan Wild (D)
Tenure: 3rd term
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2022 House result: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 49.7%-49.1%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latino: 19%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wild has won this swing district in three straight elections, but by declining vote shares – 54%, 52% and most recently, 51%. This time, she faces six-term state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
As with Cartwright, incumbency has produced a strong fundraising edge: WIld has outspent Mackenzie by a 6–to-1 margin through mid-October, and she has more than double the money in the bank down the stretch. With Pennsylvania’s crowded airwaves from a competitive presidential and Senate contest, it remains to be seen whether Mackenzie can sufficiently define himself against the incumbent.
No. 2 (tie): 10th Congressional District (shift from No. 3)
Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2022 House result: Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latino: 9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%
Perry moves up our list for the third consecutive time.
While Perry occupies a Republican district, the region is trending purple, and his hard-right politics have helped make him vulnerable. He chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by then-President Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
He faces Janelle Stelson, a former Republican who won a six-way primary partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.
The only poll in the race taken since July showed Stelson ahead by 9 points and just two points short of 50%. The poll, released in mid-October by Susquehanna Polling and Research, likely overstates her lead, but it points to a real chance for a Democratic flip of the seat.
Perry’s best hope is for Trump to notch a solid victory in the district; Trump won it by 4 points in 2020. Perry won in 2022 despite Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro taking the district by double digits. But Stelson is widely considered a stronger and better funded candidate.
Unusual for a challenger, Stelson outspent the incumbent through mid-October and has more cash in the bank as Election Day approaches. But outside groups, including the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund, have recently begun to hammer Stelson.
No. 4: 17th Congressional District
Incumbent: Chris Deluzio (D)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2022 House result: Deluzio, 53%-47%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-46%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latino: 2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%
Deluzio won this swingy district by a six-point margin in 2022, holding it for the Democrats after Conor Lamb made an unsuccessful run for Senate. He faces fellow veteran and state Rep. Rob Mercuri.
This race has been quieter than the top three contests but, like the others, it could be shaped by the top-of-ballot races.
Deluzio has tripled the spending by Mercuri through mid-October and has a bit more money on hand than Mercuri does for the final weeks. The biggest disparity has come in negative advertising by outside groups; money spent by outside groups attacking Mercuri has been seven times higher than the amount spent on outside attacks against Deluzio.
Potentially vulnerable
No. 5: 1st Congressional District
Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Tenure: 4th term
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House result: Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latino: 6%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%
This district backed Biden by 5 points in 2020, and it’s a key battleground for the 2024 presidential race. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and his family history (his late brother occupied the seat before him) has made him difficult for Democrats to dislodge.
Democratic nominee Ashley Ehasz, a former Army Apache helicopter pilot who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022, is the nominee again.
Fitzpatrick declined a chance to debate Ehasz, but polling shows he can afford to. Both campaigns released polls in September that showed Fitzpatrick ahead. Ehasz’s showed her down by 5 points; Fitzpatrick’s showed him leading 14 points.
While Ehasz’ fundraising has been stronger than it was in 2022, Fitzpatrick has benefited from incumbency. He’s doubled her fundraising during this election cycle and has further benefited from positive outside ad spending. In the final days of the campaign, he has 10 times the amount of cash on hand as Ehasz does.
Minimally vulnerable
No races
by Louis Jacobson
PoliticsPA contributing writer
Election Day 2024 is almost here, so it’s time to assemble our final PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House.
For the eighth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. This is our fourth handicapping of the 2024 election cycle.
Since our last analysis in September, we’ve seen enough movement to make one change — involving the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
The Perry-Stelson contest, involving a district that includes portions of the Harrisburg and York regions, has consistently risen in our vulnerability rankings over the past year and a half. It began in the fifth-most vulnerable slot in the July 2023 edition of our list. We’re now moving it into a tie for second, joining the seat held by Democratic Rep. Susan Wild.
As was the case in September, the most vulnerable seat in our analysis is the one held by Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright.
The fourth race in our “Vulnerable” category, ranking behind Perry and Wild, is the one involving the reelection bid by Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio.
The only other seat on our list remains in our “Potentially Vulnerable” category, the one held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R).
Here’s our full rundown. Statistics are from the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
No. 1: 8th Congressional District
Incumbent: Matt Cartwright (D)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2022 House result: Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latino: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%
Once again, Cartwright occupies the top spot on our vulnerability list.
The Scranton-based district went for Donald Trump in 2020 by three points, and while Cartwright has won tough races before, he faces construction CEO Rob Bresnahan this year, who is considered a strong recruit for the GOP.
Cartwright’s biggest advantage is in money. Through mid-October, Cartwright had more than doubled Bresnahan’s amount of spending, and he entered the final stretch with a 4-to-1 advantage in cash on hand. Outside groups opposing each candidate have spent to a rough parity.
The Scranton area is a key area in the presidential race because it’s historically Democratic but has been shifting toward the GOP in recent elections. How the presidential race shakes out locally is likely to have a big impact on the House race.
No. 2 (tie): 7th Congressional District
Incumbent: Susan Wild (D)
Tenure: 3rd term
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2022 House result: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 49.7%-49.1%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latino: 19%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wild has won this swing district in three straight elections, but by declining vote shares – 54%, 52% and most recently, 51%. This time, she faces six-term state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
As with Cartwright, incumbency has produced a strong fundraising edge: WIld has outspent Mackenzie by a 6–to-1 margin through mid-October, and she has more than double the money in the bank down the stretch. With Pennsylvania’s crowded airwaves from a competitive presidential and Senate contest, it remains to be seen whether Mackenzie can sufficiently define himself against the incumbent.
No. 2 (tie): 10th Congressional District (shift from No. 3)
Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2022 House result: Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latino: 9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%
Perry moves up our list for the third consecutive time.
While Perry occupies a Republican district, the region is trending purple, and his hard-right politics have helped make him vulnerable. He chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by then-President Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
He faces Janelle Stelson, a former Republican who won a six-way primary partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.
The only poll in the race taken since July showed Stelson ahead by 9 points and just two points short of 50%. The poll, released in mid-October by Susquehanna Polling and Research, likely overstates her lead, but it points to a real chance for a Democratic flip of the seat.
Perry’s best hope is for Trump to notch a solid victory in the district; Trump won it by 4 points in 2020. Perry won in 2022 despite Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro taking the district by double digits. But Stelson is widely considered a stronger and better funded candidate.
Unusual for a challenger, Stelson outspent the incumbent through mid-October and has more cash in the bank as Election Day approaches. But outside groups, including the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund, have recently begun to hammer Stelson.
No. 4: 17th Congressional District
Incumbent: Chris Deluzio (D)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2022 House result: Deluzio, 53%-47%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-46%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latino: 2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%
Deluzio won this swingy district by a six-point margin in 2022, holding it for the Democrats after Conor Lamb made an unsuccessful run for Senate. He faces fellow veteran and state Rep. Rob Mercuri.
This race has been quieter than the top three contests but, like the others, it could be shaped by the top-of-ballot races.
Deluzio has tripled the spending by Mercuri through mid-October and has a bit more money on hand than Mercuri does for the final weeks. The biggest disparity has come in negative advertising by outside groups; money spent by outside groups attacking Mercuri has been seven times higher than the amount spent on outside attacks against Deluzio.
Potentially vulnerable
No. 5: 1st Congressional District
Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Tenure: 4th term
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House result: Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latino: 6%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%
This district backed Biden by 5 points in 2020, and it’s a key battleground for the 2024 presidential race. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and his family history (his late brother occupied the seat before him) has made him difficult for Democrats to dislodge.
Democratic nominee Ashley Ehasz, a former Army Apache helicopter pilot who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022, is the nominee again.
Fitzpatrick declined a chance to debate Ehasz, but polling shows he can afford to. Both campaigns released polls in September that showed Fitzpatrick ahead. Ehasz’s showed her down by 5 points; Fitzpatrick’s showed him leading 14 points.
While Ehasz’ fundraising has been stronger than it was in 2022, Fitzpatrick has benefited from incumbency. He’s doubled her fundraising during this election cycle and has further benefited from positive outside ad spending. In the final days of the campaign, he has 10 times the amount of cash on hand as Ehasz does.
Minimally vulnerable
No races
by Louis Jacobson
PoliticsPA contributing writer
Election Day 2024 is almost here, so it’s time to assemble our final PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House.
For the eighth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. This is our fourth handicapping of the 2024 election cycle.
Since our last analysis in September, we’ve seen enough movement to make one change — involving the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
The Perry-Stelson contest, involving a district that includes portions of the Harrisburg and York regions, has consistently risen in our vulnerability rankings over the past year and a half. It began in the fifth-most vulnerable slot in the July 2023 edition of our list. We’re now moving it into a tie for second, joining the seat held by Democratic Rep. Susan Wild.
As was the case in September, the most vulnerable seat in our analysis is the one held by Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright.
The fourth race in our “Vulnerable” category, ranking behind Perry and Wild, is the one involving the reelection bid by Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio.
The only other seat on our list remains in our “Potentially Vulnerable” category, the one held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R).
Here’s our full rundown. Statistics are from the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
No. 1: 8th Congressional District
Incumbent: Matt Cartwright (D)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2022 House result: Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latino: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%
Once again, Cartwright occupies the top spot on our vulnerability list.
The Scranton-based district went for Donald Trump in 2020 by three points, and while Cartwright has won tough races before, he faces construction CEO Rob Bresnahan this year, who is considered a strong recruit for the GOP.
Cartwright’s biggest advantage is in money. Through mid-October, Cartwright had more than doubled Bresnahan’s amount of spending, and he entered the final stretch with a 4-to-1 advantage in cash on hand. Outside groups opposing each candidate have spent to a rough parity.
The Scranton area is a key area in the presidential race because it’s historically Democratic but has been shifting toward the GOP in recent elections. How the presidential race shakes out locally is likely to have a big impact on the House race.
No. 2 (tie): 7th Congressional District
Incumbent: Susan Wild (D)
Tenure: 3rd term
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2022 House result: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 49.7%-49.1%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latino: 19%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wild has won this swing district in three straight elections, but by declining vote shares – 54%, 52% and most recently, 51%. This time, she faces six-term state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
As with Cartwright, incumbency has produced a strong fundraising edge: WIld has outspent Mackenzie by a 6–to-1 margin through mid-October, and she has more than double the money in the bank down the stretch. With Pennsylvania’s crowded airwaves from a competitive presidential and Senate contest, it remains to be seen whether Mackenzie can sufficiently define himself against the incumbent.
No. 2 (tie): 10th Congressional District (shift from No. 3)
Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2022 House result: Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latino: 9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%
Perry moves up our list for the third consecutive time.
While Perry occupies a Republican district, the region is trending purple, and his hard-right politics have helped make him vulnerable. He chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by then-President Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
He faces Janelle Stelson, a former Republican who won a six-way primary partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.
The only poll in the race taken since July showed Stelson ahead by 9 points and just two points short of 50%. The poll, released in mid-October by Susquehanna Polling and Research, likely overstates her lead, but it points to a real chance for a Democratic flip of the seat.
Perry’s best hope is for Trump to notch a solid victory in the district; Trump won it by 4 points in 2020. Perry won in 2022 despite Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro taking the district by double digits. But Stelson is widely considered a stronger and better funded candidate.
Unusual for a challenger, Stelson outspent the incumbent through mid-October and has more cash in the bank as Election Day approaches. But outside groups, including the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund, have recently begun to hammer Stelson.
No. 4: 17th Congressional District
Incumbent: Chris Deluzio (D)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2022 House result: Deluzio, 53%-47%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-46%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latino: 2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%
Deluzio won this swingy district by a six-point margin in 2022, holding it for the Democrats after Conor Lamb made an unsuccessful run for Senate. He faces fellow veteran and state Rep. Rob Mercuri.
This race has been quieter than the top three contests but, like the others, it could be shaped by the top-of-ballot races.
Deluzio has tripled the spending by Mercuri through mid-October and has a bit more money on hand than Mercuri does for the final weeks. The biggest disparity has come in negative advertising by outside groups; money spent by outside groups attacking Mercuri has been seven times higher than the amount spent on outside attacks against Deluzio.
Potentially vulnerable
No. 5: 1st Congressional District
Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Tenure: 4th term
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House result: Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latino: 6%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%
This district backed Biden by 5 points in 2020, and it’s a key battleground for the 2024 presidential race. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and his family history (his late brother occupied the seat before him) has made him difficult for Democrats to dislodge.
Democratic nominee Ashley Ehasz, a former Army Apache helicopter pilot who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022, is the nominee again.
Fitzpatrick declined a chance to debate Ehasz, but polling shows he can afford to. Both campaigns released polls in September that showed Fitzpatrick ahead. Ehasz’s showed her down by 5 points; Fitzpatrick’s showed him leading 14 points.
While Ehasz’ fundraising has been stronger than it was in 2022, Fitzpatrick has benefited from incumbency. He’s doubled her fundraising during this election cycle and has further benefited from positive outside ad spending. In the final days of the campaign, he has 10 times the amount of cash on hand as Ehasz does.
Minimally vulnerable
No races
by Louis Jacobson
PoliticsPA contributing writer
Election Day 2024 is almost here, so it’s time to assemble our final PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House.
For the eighth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. This is our fourth handicapping of the 2024 election cycle.
Since our last analysis in September, we’ve seen enough movement to make one change — involving the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
The Perry-Stelson contest, involving a district that includes portions of the Harrisburg and York regions, has consistently risen in our vulnerability rankings over the past year and a half. It began in the fifth-most vulnerable slot in the July 2023 edition of our list. We’re now moving it into a tie for second, joining the seat held by Democratic Rep. Susan Wild.
As was the case in September, the most vulnerable seat in our analysis is the one held by Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright.
The fourth race in our “Vulnerable” category, ranking behind Perry and Wild, is the one involving the reelection bid by Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio.
The only other seat on our list remains in our “Potentially Vulnerable” category, the one held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R).
Here’s our full rundown. Statistics are from the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
No. 1: 8th Congressional District
Incumbent: Matt Cartwright (D)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2022 House result: Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latino: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%
Once again, Cartwright occupies the top spot on our vulnerability list.
The Scranton-based district went for Donald Trump in 2020 by three points, and while Cartwright has won tough races before, he faces construction CEO Rob Bresnahan this year, who is considered a strong recruit for the GOP.
Cartwright’s biggest advantage is in money. Through mid-October, Cartwright had more than doubled Bresnahan’s amount of spending, and he entered the final stretch with a 4-to-1 advantage in cash on hand. Outside groups opposing each candidate have spent to a rough parity.
The Scranton area is a key area in the presidential race because it’s historically Democratic but has been shifting toward the GOP in recent elections. How the presidential race shakes out locally is likely to have a big impact on the House race.
No. 2 (tie): 7th Congressional District
Incumbent: Susan Wild (D)
Tenure: 3rd term
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2022 House result: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 49.7%-49.1%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latino: 19%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wild has won this swing district in three straight elections, but by declining vote shares – 54%, 52% and most recently, 51%. This time, she faces six-term state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
As with Cartwright, incumbency has produced a strong fundraising edge: WIld has outspent Mackenzie by a 6–to-1 margin through mid-October, and she has more than double the money in the bank down the stretch. With Pennsylvania’s crowded airwaves from a competitive presidential and Senate contest, it remains to be seen whether Mackenzie can sufficiently define himself against the incumbent.
No. 2 (tie): 10th Congressional District (shift from No. 3)
Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2022 House result: Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latino: 9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%
Perry moves up our list for the third consecutive time.
While Perry occupies a Republican district, the region is trending purple, and his hard-right politics have helped make him vulnerable. He chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by then-President Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
He faces Janelle Stelson, a former Republican who won a six-way primary partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.
The only poll in the race taken since July showed Stelson ahead by 9 points and just two points short of 50%. The poll, released in mid-October by Susquehanna Polling and Research, likely overstates her lead, but it points to a real chance for a Democratic flip of the seat.
Perry’s best hope is for Trump to notch a solid victory in the district; Trump won it by 4 points in 2020. Perry won in 2022 despite Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro taking the district by double digits. But Stelson is widely considered a stronger and better funded candidate.
Unusual for a challenger, Stelson outspent the incumbent through mid-October and has more cash in the bank as Election Day approaches. But outside groups, including the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund, have recently begun to hammer Stelson.
No. 4: 17th Congressional District
Incumbent: Chris Deluzio (D)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2022 House result: Deluzio, 53%-47%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-46%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latino: 2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%
Deluzio won this swingy district by a six-point margin in 2022, holding it for the Democrats after Conor Lamb made an unsuccessful run for Senate. He faces fellow veteran and state Rep. Rob Mercuri.
This race has been quieter than the top three contests but, like the others, it could be shaped by the top-of-ballot races.
Deluzio has tripled the spending by Mercuri through mid-October and has a bit more money on hand than Mercuri does for the final weeks. The biggest disparity has come in negative advertising by outside groups; money spent by outside groups attacking Mercuri has been seven times higher than the amount spent on outside attacks against Deluzio.
Potentially vulnerable
No. 5: 1st Congressional District
Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Tenure: 4th term
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House result: Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latino: 6%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%
This district backed Biden by 5 points in 2020, and it’s a key battleground for the 2024 presidential race. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and his family history (his late brother occupied the seat before him) has made him difficult for Democrats to dislodge.
Democratic nominee Ashley Ehasz, a former Army Apache helicopter pilot who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022, is the nominee again.
Fitzpatrick declined a chance to debate Ehasz, but polling shows he can afford to. Both campaigns released polls in September that showed Fitzpatrick ahead. Ehasz’s showed her down by 5 points; Fitzpatrick’s showed him leading 14 points.
While Ehasz’ fundraising has been stronger than it was in 2022, Fitzpatrick has benefited from incumbency. He’s doubled her fundraising during this election cycle and has further benefited from positive outside ad spending. In the final days of the campaign, he has 10 times the amount of cash on hand as Ehasz does.
Minimally vulnerable
No races
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