The “13 Keys to the White House”: A Conversation With Allan Lichtman
Creator of prediction system that determines outcome of presidential elections talks with Voices of Reason
July 25, 2024
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Creator of prediction system that determines outcome of presidential elections talks with Voices of Reason
The distinguished professor of American history at American University, Dr. Allan Lichtman has published 11 books and several hundred scholarly articles.
He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University with a specialty in modern American history and quantitative methods.
Using those prediction methods, he created the “13 Keys to the White House,” that has correctly predicted the outcomes of all US presidential elections since 1984.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
Voices of Reason spoke with Lichtman about his background, how the system came about, why the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris salvaged one of the keys for Democrats, and discussed prediction modeling and polls.
The distinguished professor of American history at American University, Dr. Allan Lichtman has published 11 books and several hundred scholarly articles.
He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University with a specialty in modern American history and quantitative methods.
Using those prediction methods, he created the “13 Keys to the White House,” that has correctly predicted the outcomes of all US presidential elections since 1984.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
Voices of Reason spoke with Lichtman about his background, how the system came about, why the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris salvaged one of the keys for Democrats, and discussed prediction modeling and polls.
The distinguished professor of American history at American University, Dr. Allan Lichtman has published 11 books and several hundred scholarly articles.
He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University with a specialty in modern American history and quantitative methods.
Using those prediction methods, he created the “13 Keys to the White House,” that has correctly predicted the outcomes of all US presidential elections since 1984.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
Voices of Reason spoke with Lichtman about his background, how the system came about, why the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris salvaged one of the keys for Democrats, and discussed prediction modeling and polls.
The distinguished professor of American history at American University, Dr. Allan Lichtman has published 11 books and several hundred scholarly articles.
He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University with a specialty in modern American history and quantitative methods.
Using those prediction methods, he created the “13 Keys to the White House,” that has correctly predicted the outcomes of all US presidential elections since 1984.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
Voices of Reason spoke with Lichtman about his background, how the system came about, why the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris salvaged one of the keys for Democrats, and discussed prediction modeling and polls.
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