Are we seeing a change in the electorate prior to the 2022 midterms? According to the latest New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll of 849 registered United States voters, the answer is a resounding yes. Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters. In other words, Dems are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned with issues such as gun control and abortion rights, while the GOP is building a coalition of working-class voters that are most concerned with inflation and other pocketbook issues. When asked the question, “What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections?,” 57 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree or more indicated Democratic, while 36% responded Republican. Among those respondents without a bachelor’s degree, the percentages switched to 54% for the GOP and 23 for the Dems. Also interesting that 23 percent either did not know or refused to answer. Among black voters, 78 percent would cast their vote for Democratic control, while the choice was much tighter among Latinos, favoring Dems by just three points (41-38). When queried on the Supreme Court, 46 percent of those without a BA looked favorably upon the high court, while those with a BA or higher came in at 36 percent. The NYT/Siena poll also posed a question about potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates. 57 percent of those without a BA favored Donald Trump, while just 24 percent gave a nod to Ron DeSantis, while the pair was tied at 29 percent among those with a college degree. While Trump is underwater in favorability ratings among Latinos (38-53), 57 percent would still choose the former president as their choice in 2024. Ted Cruz was second at 20 percent, while DeSantis was third (12%).

• Crosstabs

  This New York Times/Siena College survey of 849 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on landline and cellular telephones from July 5 to July 7, 2022. The survey is a response rate adjusted stratified sample of active registered voters on the L2 voter file. The survey was fielded by the Siena College Research Institute and ReconMR. Overall, 63% of respondents were reached on cellular telephones. The survey’s margin of error due to sampling is +/- 4.1%. It accounts for the survey’s design effect of 1.46, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to weighting.