NYT/Siena: Casey With 50-42 Lead Over McCormick; Trump 48-45 vs. Biden
Survey conducted July 9-11 prior to attempted assassination of Trump
July 15, 2024
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Survey conducted July 9-11 prior to attempted assassination of Trump
In a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted prior to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the former President has forged a 48-45% lead over President Joe Biden.
That figure mirrors the last poll conducted by the group at the end of April and falls within the +/-3.7% margin of error in a survey of 872 registered Pennsylvania voters.
NYT/Siena also showed in their findings that Sen. Bob Casey Jr. continues to lead Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The three-term incumbent has an eight-point advantage over the former hedge fund CEO, 50-42%. The margin is three higher than the previous survey and is just the second time this quarter that a poll has shown Casey at 50+ percent. A Marist survey had Casey at 52% back in early June.
Among likely voters, McCormick’s deficit is rose to 11 percentage points at 50-39%.
President
Trump’s greatest support came from those voters between the ages of 45-64 (53-39%) and who were with without a college degree (64-32%). Biden’s best numbers came from younger voters between 18-29 (56-38%), black voters (80-11%) and those with a college degree (57-36%).
In a contest with other potential candidates, Trump held a 42-40% lead over Biden with an additional seven percent casting their lot with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr..
In a hypothetical two-person contest between Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, the Republican maintained a slim one-point advantage at 48-47%, while the difference did not change when all candidates were provided as options (43-42%).
Job Performance / Favorability
Biden’s approval rating came in at 38 percent with two-thirds of black voters giving him a thumbs-up. Nearly half of respondents, though, strongly disapproved of his performance in the White House, including half of the respondents aged 30-64.
The president has a minus-20 favorability rating with 39% with a somewhat or very favorable view and 59% disagreeing with that sentiment.
Trump’s numbers continue to rise, as the 45th president is at minus-7 with 46% with a favorable view as opposed to 53% unfavorable.
Harris, who has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Biden on the Democratic ticket should he choose to step aside, is at minus-13 (42-55%).
The Age Question
Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the respondents indicated that they felt Biden “is just too old to be an effective president.” It is worth noting that one-third (35%) of those voters 65 or older disagreed with that statement about the 81-year-old chief executive.
More than 2-in-5 (42%) thought Trump was too old to be effective as president, while 55% of senior voters disagreed.
Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said that “Biden should drop out and there should be a different Democratic nominee,” while 2-in-4 (39%) should he “should remain the Democratic nominee.”
When asked about the GOP candidate, respondents were nearly split down the middle with 49% saying be should drop out and 47% indicating he should remain on the top of the ticket.
Miscellaneous
More than half (53%) of respondents said “Trump has committed serious federal crimes,” as opposed to 40 percent that said he has not. Three-in-five (59%) women, 61% of seniors, and 85% of blacks said he has committed crimes.
U.S. Senate
Casey showed strength across most demographic categories, including a 56-38% edge over McCormick with women and an 83-11% advantage with blacks. College-educated voters also fell toward Casey with non-whites (81-17%) leading the way. The GOP candidate has a larger percentage of white, non-college voters in his column (54-39%) and a slender 47-46% edge among middle-age (45-64) voters.
We spoke with 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9 to 11. The margin of sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate.
In a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted prior to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the former President has forged a 48-45% lead over President Joe Biden.
That figure mirrors the last poll conducted by the group at the end of April and falls within the +/-3.7% margin of error in a survey of 872 registered Pennsylvania voters.
NYT/Siena also showed in their findings that Sen. Bob Casey Jr. continues to lead Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The three-term incumbent has an eight-point advantage over the former hedge fund CEO, 50-42%. The margin is three higher than the previous survey and is just the second time this quarter that a poll has shown Casey at 50+ percent. A Marist survey had Casey at 52% back in early June.
Among likely voters, McCormick’s deficit is rose to 11 percentage points at 50-39%.
President
Trump’s greatest support came from those voters between the ages of 45-64 (53-39%) and who were with without a college degree (64-32%). Biden’s best numbers came from younger voters between 18-29 (56-38%), black voters (80-11%) and those with a college degree (57-36%).
In a contest with other potential candidates, Trump held a 42-40% lead over Biden with an additional seven percent casting their lot with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr..
In a hypothetical two-person contest between Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, the Republican maintained a slim one-point advantage at 48-47%, while the difference did not change when all candidates were provided as options (43-42%).
Job Performance / Favorability
Biden’s approval rating came in at 38 percent with two-thirds of black voters giving him a thumbs-up. Nearly half of respondents, though, strongly disapproved of his performance in the White House, including half of the respondents aged 30-64.
The president has a minus-20 favorability rating with 39% with a somewhat or very favorable view and 59% disagreeing with that sentiment.
Trump’s numbers continue to rise, as the 45th president is at minus-7 with 46% with a favorable view as opposed to 53% unfavorable.
Harris, who has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Biden on the Democratic ticket should he choose to step aside, is at minus-13 (42-55%).
The Age Question
Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the respondents indicated that they felt Biden “is just too old to be an effective president.” It is worth noting that one-third (35%) of those voters 65 or older disagreed with that statement about the 81-year-old chief executive.
More than 2-in-5 (42%) thought Trump was too old to be effective as president, while 55% of senior voters disagreed.
Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said that “Biden should drop out and there should be a different Democratic nominee,” while 2-in-4 (39%) should he “should remain the Democratic nominee.”
When asked about the GOP candidate, respondents were nearly split down the middle with 49% saying be should drop out and 47% indicating he should remain on the top of the ticket.
Miscellaneous
More than half (53%) of respondents said “Trump has committed serious federal crimes,” as opposed to 40 percent that said he has not. Three-in-five (59%) women, 61% of seniors, and 85% of blacks said he has committed crimes.
U.S. Senate
Casey showed strength across most demographic categories, including a 56-38% edge over McCormick with women and an 83-11% advantage with blacks. College-educated voters also fell toward Casey with non-whites (81-17%) leading the way. The GOP candidate has a larger percentage of white, non-college voters in his column (54-39%) and a slender 47-46% edge among middle-age (45-64) voters.
We spoke with 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9 to 11. The margin of sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate.
In a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted prior to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the former President has forged a 48-45% lead over President Joe Biden.
That figure mirrors the last poll conducted by the group at the end of April and falls within the +/-3.7% margin of error in a survey of 872 registered Pennsylvania voters.
NYT/Siena also showed in their findings that Sen. Bob Casey Jr. continues to lead Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The three-term incumbent has an eight-point advantage over the former hedge fund CEO, 50-42%. The margin is three higher than the previous survey and is just the second time this quarter that a poll has shown Casey at 50+ percent. A Marist survey had Casey at 52% back in early June.
Among likely voters, McCormick’s deficit is rose to 11 percentage points at 50-39%.
President
Trump’s greatest support came from those voters between the ages of 45-64 (53-39%) and who were with without a college degree (64-32%). Biden’s best numbers came from younger voters between 18-29 (56-38%), black voters (80-11%) and those with a college degree (57-36%).
In a contest with other potential candidates, Trump held a 42-40% lead over Biden with an additional seven percent casting their lot with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr..
In a hypothetical two-person contest between Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, the Republican maintained a slim one-point advantage at 48-47%, while the difference did not change when all candidates were provided as options (43-42%).
Job Performance / Favorability
Biden’s approval rating came in at 38 percent with two-thirds of black voters giving him a thumbs-up. Nearly half of respondents, though, strongly disapproved of his performance in the White House, including half of the respondents aged 30-64.
The president has a minus-20 favorability rating with 39% with a somewhat or very favorable view and 59% disagreeing with that sentiment.
Trump’s numbers continue to rise, as the 45th president is at minus-7 with 46% with a favorable view as opposed to 53% unfavorable.
Harris, who has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Biden on the Democratic ticket should he choose to step aside, is at minus-13 (42-55%).
The Age Question
Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the respondents indicated that they felt Biden “is just too old to be an effective president.” It is worth noting that one-third (35%) of those voters 65 or older disagreed with that statement about the 81-year-old chief executive.
More than 2-in-5 (42%) thought Trump was too old to be effective as president, while 55% of senior voters disagreed.
Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said that “Biden should drop out and there should be a different Democratic nominee,” while 2-in-4 (39%) should he “should remain the Democratic nominee.”
When asked about the GOP candidate, respondents were nearly split down the middle with 49% saying be should drop out and 47% indicating he should remain on the top of the ticket.
Miscellaneous
More than half (53%) of respondents said “Trump has committed serious federal crimes,” as opposed to 40 percent that said he has not. Three-in-five (59%) women, 61% of seniors, and 85% of blacks said he has committed crimes.
U.S. Senate
Casey showed strength across most demographic categories, including a 56-38% edge over McCormick with women and an 83-11% advantage with blacks. College-educated voters also fell toward Casey with non-whites (81-17%) leading the way. The GOP candidate has a larger percentage of white, non-college voters in his column (54-39%) and a slender 47-46% edge among middle-age (45-64) voters.
We spoke with 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9 to 11. The margin of sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate.
In a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted prior to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the former President has forged a 48-45% lead over President Joe Biden.
That figure mirrors the last poll conducted by the group at the end of April and falls within the +/-3.7% margin of error in a survey of 872 registered Pennsylvania voters.
NYT/Siena also showed in their findings that Sen. Bob Casey Jr. continues to lead Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The three-term incumbent has an eight-point advantage over the former hedge fund CEO, 50-42%. The margin is three higher than the previous survey and is just the second time this quarter that a poll has shown Casey at 50+ percent. A Marist survey had Casey at 52% back in early June.
Among likely voters, McCormick’s deficit is rose to 11 percentage points at 50-39%.
President
Trump’s greatest support came from those voters between the ages of 45-64 (53-39%) and who were with without a college degree (64-32%). Biden’s best numbers came from younger voters between 18-29 (56-38%), black voters (80-11%) and those with a college degree (57-36%).
In a contest with other potential candidates, Trump held a 42-40% lead over Biden with an additional seven percent casting their lot with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr..
In a hypothetical two-person contest between Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, the Republican maintained a slim one-point advantage at 48-47%, while the difference did not change when all candidates were provided as options (43-42%).
Job Performance / Favorability
Biden’s approval rating came in at 38 percent with two-thirds of black voters giving him a thumbs-up. Nearly half of respondents, though, strongly disapproved of his performance in the White House, including half of the respondents aged 30-64.
The president has a minus-20 favorability rating with 39% with a somewhat or very favorable view and 59% disagreeing with that sentiment.
Trump’s numbers continue to rise, as the 45th president is at minus-7 with 46% with a favorable view as opposed to 53% unfavorable.
Harris, who has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Biden on the Democratic ticket should he choose to step aside, is at minus-13 (42-55%).
The Age Question
Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the respondents indicated that they felt Biden “is just too old to be an effective president.” It is worth noting that one-third (35%) of those voters 65 or older disagreed with that statement about the 81-year-old chief executive.
More than 2-in-5 (42%) thought Trump was too old to be effective as president, while 55% of senior voters disagreed.
Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said that “Biden should drop out and there should be a different Democratic nominee,” while 2-in-4 (39%) should he “should remain the Democratic nominee.”
When asked about the GOP candidate, respondents were nearly split down the middle with 49% saying be should drop out and 47% indicating he should remain on the top of the ticket.
Miscellaneous
More than half (53%) of respondents said “Trump has committed serious federal crimes,” as opposed to 40 percent that said he has not. Three-in-five (59%) women, 61% of seniors, and 85% of blacks said he has committed crimes.
U.S. Senate
Casey showed strength across most demographic categories, including a 56-38% edge over McCormick with women and an 83-11% advantage with blacks. College-educated voters also fell toward Casey with non-whites (81-17%) leading the way. The GOP candidate has a larger percentage of white, non-college voters in his column (54-39%) and a slender 47-46% edge among middle-age (45-64) voters.
We spoke with 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9 to 11. The margin of sampling error in Pennsylvania is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate.
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